Comparing Greenbook and Reduced Form Forecasts using a Large Realtime Dataset

Many recent papers have found that atheoretical forecasting methods using many predictors give better predictions for key macroeconomic variables than various small-model methods. The practical relevance of these results is open to question, however, because these papers generally use ex post revised data not available to forecasters and because no comparison is made to best actual practice. We provide some evidence on both of these points using a new large dataset of vintage data synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook forecast. This dataset consists of a large number of variables, as observed at the time of each Greenbook forecast since 1979. Thus, we can compare real-time large dataset predictions to both simple univariate methods and to the Greenbook forecast. For inflation we find that univariate methods are dominated by the best atheoretical large dataset methods and that these, in turn, are dominated by Greenbook. For GDP growth, in contrast, we find that once one takes account of Greenbook's advantage in evaluating the current state of the economy, neither large dataset methods nor the Greenbook process offers much advantage over a univariate autoregressive forecast.

Lunar surface roughness comminution study Final report, 20 Jul. 1964 - 7 Apr. 1965

Lunar surface roughness comminution estimated by considering meteoric body catering proces

Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of Fed Funds futures contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption of a recursive ordering.

Identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates using high frequency data

This paper proposes a new approach to identifying the effects of monetary policy shocks in an international vector autoregression. Using high-frequency data on the prices of eurodollar contracts, we measure the impact of the surprise component of the FOMC-day Federal Reserve policy decision on financial variables, such as the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. We show how this information can be used to achieve identification without having to make the usual strong assumption of a recursive ordering. JEL Classification: C32, E52, F30Exchange Rates, High Frequency Data, Identification, monetary policy, Vector autoregression

The President\u27s Use of Troops to Enforce Federal Law

The political genius of man has failed to solve one ancient and basic problem of politics. Briefly stated, it is as follows: What shall be the proper division of authority among governments? How much authority shall be given to a central government and how much shall be left to local or state governments

Congressional Control of U. S. Supreme Court Jurisdiction

Senate Bill No. 2646 proposed in the Congress is unprecedented in scope. If it is enacted the Supreme Court will be reduced to a virtual nullity. Displeasure with recent decisions of the Court has engendered an attack upon its status which strikes at its vitals. This article is an analysis of the bill and the types of cases over which the Supreme Court would no longer have appellate jurisdiction

Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging Approach

Employing a large number of real and financial indicators, we use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to forecast real-time measures of economic activity. Importantly, the predictor set includes option-adjusted credit spread indexes based on bond portfolios sorted by maturity and credit risk as measured by the issuer’s “distance-to-default.” The portfolios are constructed directly from the secondary market prices of outstanding senior unsecured bonds issued by a large number of U.S. corporations. Our results indicate that relative to an autoregressive benchmark, BMA yields consistent improvements in the prediction of the growth rates of real GDP, business fixed investment, industrial production, and employment, as well as of the changes in the unemployment rate, at horizons from the current quarter (i.e., “nowcasting”) out to four quarters hence. The gains in forecast accuracy are statistically significant and economically important and owe exclusively to the inclusion of our portfolio credit spreads in the set of predictors—BMA consistently assigns a high posterior weight to models that include these financial indicators.

Viking '75 spacecraft design and test summary. Volume 1: Lander design

The Viking Mars program is summarized. The design of the Viking lander spacecraft is described

Viking '75 spacecraft design and test summary. Volume 3: Engineering test summary

The engineering test program for the lander and the orbiter are presented. The engineering program was developed to achieve confidence that the design was adequate to survive the expected mission environments and to accomplish the mission objective

Decompositions of Triangle-Dense Graphs

High triangle density -- the graph property stating that a constant fraction of two-hop paths belong to a triangle -- is a common signature of social networks. This paper studies triangle-dense graphs from a structural perspective. We prove constructively that significant portions of a triangle-dense graph are contained in a disjoint union of dense, radius 2 subgraphs. This result quantifies the extent to which triangle-dense graphs resemble unions of cliques. We also show that our algorithm recovers planted clusterings in approximation-stable k-median instances.Comment: 20 pages. Version 1->2: Minor edits. 2->3: Strengthened {\S}3.5, removed appendi