Risk of myocardial infarction and stroke after acute infection or vaccination.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence that chronic inflammation may promote atherosclerotic disease. We tested the hypothesis that acute infection and vaccination increase the short-term risk of vascular events. METHODS: We undertook within-person comparisons, using the case-series method, to study the risks of myocardial infarction and stroke after common vaccinations and naturally occurring infections. The study was based on the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database, which contains computerized medical records of more than 5 million patients. RESULTS: A total of 20,486 persons with a first myocardial infarction and 19,063 persons with a first stroke who received influenza vaccine were included in the analysis. There was no increase in the risk of myocardial infarction or stroke in the period after influenza, tetanus, or pneumococcal vaccination. However, the risks of both events were substantially higher after a diagnosis of systemic respiratory tract infection and were highest during the first three days (incidence ratio for myocardial infarction, 4.95; 95 percent confidence interval, 4.43 to 5.53; incidence ratio for stroke, 3.19; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.62). The risks then gradually fell during the following weeks. The risks were raised significantly but to a lesser degree after a diagnosis of urinary tract infection. The findings for recurrent myocardial infarctions and stroke were similar to those for first events. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide support for the concept that acute infections are associated with a transient increase in the risk of vascular events. By contrast, influenza, tetanus, and pneumococcal vaccinations do not produce a detectable increase in the risk of vascular events

Oral Bisphosphonates and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation and Flutter in Women: A Self-Controlled Case-Series Safety Analysis

Background: A recent trial unexpectedly reported that atrial fibrillation, when defined as serious, occurred more often in participants randomized to an annual infusion of the relatively new parenteral bisphosphonate, zoledronic acid, than among those given placebo, but had limited power. Two subsequent population-based case-control studies of patients receiving a more established oral bisphosphonate, alendronic acid, reported conflicting results, possibly due to uncontrolled confounding factors.Methodology/Principal Findings: We used the United Kingdom General Practice Research Database to assess the risk of atrial fibrillation and flutter in women exposed to the oral bisphosphonates, alendronic acid and risedronate sodium. The self-controlled case-series method was used to minimise the potential for confounding. The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio for atrial fibrillation or flutter in individuals during their exposure to these oral bisphosphonates (n = 2195) was 1.07 (95% CI 0.94 - 1.21). The age-adjusted incidence rate ratio for alendronic acid (n = 1489) and risedronate sodium (n = 649) exposed individuals were 1.09 (95% CI 0.93 - 1.26) and 0.99 (95% CI 0.78 - 1.26) respectively. In post-hoc analyses, an increased risk of incident atrial fibrillation or flutter was detected for patients during their first few months of alendronic acid therapy.Conclusions/Significance: We found no robust evidence of an overall long-term increased risk of atrial fibrillation or flutter associated with continued exposure to the oral bisphosphonates, alendronic acid and risedronate sodium. A possible signal for an increase in risk during the first few months of therapy with alendronic acid needs to be re-assessed in additional studies

Modelling the force of infection for hepatitis B and hepatitis C in injecting drug users in England and Wales

BACKGROUND: Injecting drug use is a key risk factor, for several infections of public health importance, especially hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV). In England and Wales, where less than 1% of the population are likely to be injecting drug users (IDUs), approximately 38% of laboratory reports of HBV, and 95% of HCV reports are attributed to injecting drug use. METHODS: Voluntary unlinked anonymous surveys have been performed on IDUs in contact with specialist agencies throughout England and Wales. Since 1990 more than 20,000 saliva samples from current IDUs have been tested for markers of infection for HBV, HCV testing has been included since 1998. The analysis here considers those IDUs tested for HBV and HCV (n = 5,682) from 1998–2003. This study derives maximum likelihood estimates of the force of infection (the rate at which susceptible IDUs acquire infection) for HBV and HCV in the IDU population and their trends over time and injecting career length. The presence of individual heterogeneity of risk behaviour and background HBV prevalence due to routes of transmission other than injecting are also considered. RESULTS: For both HBV and HCV, IDUs are at greatest risk from infection in their first year of injecting (Forces of infection in new initiates 1999–2003: HBV = 0.1076 95% C.I: 0.0840–0.1327 HCV = 0.1608 95% C.I: 0.1314–0.1942) compared to experienced IDUs (Force of infection in experienced IDUs 1999–2003: HBV = 0.0353 95% C.I: 0.0198–0.0596, HCV = 0.0526 95% C.I: 0.0310–0.0863) although independently of this there is evidence of heterogeneity of risk behaviour with a small number of IDUs at increased risk of infection. No trends in the FOI over time were detected. There was only limited evidence of background HBV infection due to factors other than injecting. CONCLUSION: The models highlight the need to increase interventions that target new initiates to injecting to reduce the transmission of blood-borne viruses. Although from the evidence here, identification of those individuals that engage in heightened at-risk behaviour may also help in planning effective interventions. The data and methods described here may provide a baseline for monitoring the success of public health interventions

Proton pump inhibitors and the risk of pneumonia: A comparison of cohort and self-controlled case series designs

Background: To compare the results of a new-user cohort study design and the self-controlled case series (SCCS) design using the risk of hospitalisation for pneumonia in those dispensed proton pump inhibitors compared to those unexposed as a case study. Methods: The Australian Government Department of Veterans’ Affairs administrative claims database was used. Exposure to proton pump inhibitors and hospitalisations for pneumonia were identified over a 4 year study period 01 Jul 2007 -30 Jun 2011. The same inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to both studies, however, the SCCS study included subjects with a least one hospitalisation for pneumonia. Results: There were 105,467 subjects included in the cohort study and 6775 in the SCCS. Both studies showed an increased risk of hospitalisations for pneumonia in the three defined risk periods following initiation of proton pump inhibitors compared to baseline. With the highest risk in the first 1 to 7 days (Cohort RR, 3.24; 95% CI (2.50, 4.19): SCCS: RR, 3.07; 95% CI (2.69, 3.50)). Conclusions: This study has shown that the self-controlled case series method produces similar risk estimates to a new-users cohort study design when applied to the association of proton pump inhibitors and pneumonia. Exposure to a proton pump inhibitor increases the likelihood of being admitted to hospital for pneumonia, with the risk highest in the first week of treatment.Emmae N Ramsay, Nicole L Pratt, Philip Ryan and Elizabeth E Roughea

Assessment of the Variability in Influenza A(H1N1) Vaccine Effectiveness Estimates Dependent on Outcome and Methodological Approach

Estimation of Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies with study design, clinical outcome 10 considered and statistical methodology used. By estimating VE using differing outcomes and 11 statistical methods on the same cohort of individuals the variability in the estimates produced can 12 be better understood. The Pandemic Influenza Primary Care Reporting (PIPeR) cohort of approximately 193,000 individuals 14 was used to estimate pandemic VE in Scotland during season 2009-10. VE results for three 15 outcomes; influenza related consultations, virological confirmed influenza and death were 16 considered. Use of individualised records allowed all models to be adjusted for age, sex, 17 deprivation, risk status relating to chronic illnesses, seasonal vaccination status and a marker of the 18 individual’s propensity to consult. For the consultation and death outcomes, VE was calculated by 19 comparing consultation rates in the unvaccinated and vaccinated groups, adjusted for the listed 20 factors, using both Cox and Poisson regression models. For the consultation outcome, the 21 unvaccinated group was split into individuals before vaccination and those never vaccinated to allow 22 for potential differences in the health seeking behaviour of these groups. For the virology outcome 23 estimates were calculated using a generalised additive logistic regression model. All models were 24 adjusted for time. Vaccine effect was demonstrated for the influenza-like illness consultation outcome using the Cox 26 model (VE=49% 95% CI (19%, 67%)) with lower estimates from the model splitting the before and 27 never vaccinated groups (VE=34.2% with 95% CI (-0.5%, 58.9%)). Vaccine effect was also illustrated 28 for overall mortality (VE=40% (95% CI 18%, 56%)) and a virological confirmed subset of symptomatic 29 individuals (VE=60% (95% CI -38%, 89%))

Comparison of Statistical Algorithms for the Detection of Infectious Disease Outbreaks in Large Multiple Surveillance Systems

A large-scale multiple surveillance system for infectious disease outbreaks has been in operation in England and Wales since the early 1990s. Changes to the statistical algorithm at the heart of the system were proposed and the purpose of this paper is to compare two new algorithms with the original algorithm. Test data to evaluate performance are created from weekly counts of the number of cases of each of more than 2000 diseases over a twenty-year period. The time series of each disease is separated into one series giving the baseline (background) disease incidence and a second series giving disease outbreaks. One series is shifted forward by twelve months and the two are then recombined, giving a realistic series in which it is known where outbreaks have been added. The metrics used to evaluate performance include a scoring rule that appropriately balances sensitivity against specificity and is sensitive to variation in probabilities near 1. In the context of disease surveillance, a scoring rule can be adapted to reflect the size of outbreaks and this was done. Results indicate that the two new algorithms are comparable to each other and better than the algorithm they were designed to replace

Budesonide foam versus budesonide enema in active ulcerative proctitis and proctosigmoiditis

Background: Rectal budesonide is an effective treatment of active ulcerative proctitis or proctosigmoiditis. Aim: To compare the therapeutic efficacy, tolerability and safety, and patient's preference of budesonide foam vs. budesonide enema. Methods: Patients with active ulcerative proctitis or proctosigmoiditis (clinical activity index >4 and endoscopic index ≥4) were eligible for this double-blind, double-dummy, randomized, multicentre study. They received 2 mg/25 mL budesonide foam and placebo enema (n = 265), or 2 mg/100 mL budesonide enema and placebo foam (n = 268) for 4 weeks. Primary endpoint was clinical remission (clinical activity index ≤4) at the final/withdrawal visit (per protocol). Results: A total of 541 patients were randomized - 533 were evaluable for intention-to-treat analysis and 449 for per protocol analysis. Clinical remission rates (per protocol) were 60% for budesonide foam and 66% for budesonide enema (P = 0.02362 for non-inferiority of foam vs. enema within a predefined non-inferiority margin of 15%). Both formulations were safe and no drug-related serious adverse events were observed. Because of better tolerability and easier application most patients preferred foam (84%). Conclusion: Budesonide foam is as effective as budesonide enema in the treatment of active ulcerative proctitis or proctosigmoiditis. Both budesonide formulations are safe, and most patients prefer foam.publishersversionPeer reviewe

The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Frequency of apnea, bradycardia, and desaturations following first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-inactivated polio-Haemophilus influenzae type B immunization in hospitalized preterm infants

BACKGROUND: Adverse cardiorespiratory events including apnea, bradycardia, and desaturations have been described following administration of the first diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-inactivated polio-Haemophilus influenzae type B (DTP-IPV-Hib) immunization to preterm infants. The effect of the recent substitution of acellular pertussis vaccine for whole cell pertussis vaccine on the frequency of these events requires further study. METHODS: Infants with gestational age of ≤ 32 weeks who received their first DTP-IPV-Hib immunization prior to discharge from two Edmonton Neonatal Intensive Care Units January 1, 1996 to November 30, 2000 were eligible for the study. Each immunized infant was matched by gestational age to one control infant. The number of episodes of apnea, bradycardia, and/or desaturations (ABD) and the treatment required for these episodes in the 72 hours prior to and 72 hours post-immunization (for the immunized cohort) or at the same post-natal age (for controls) was recorded. RESULTS: Thirty-four infants who received DTP-IPV-Hib with whole cell pertussis vaccine, 90 infants who received DTP-IPV-Hib with acellular pertussis vaccine, and 124 control infants were entered in the study. Fifty-six immunized infants (45.1%) and 36 control infants (29.0%) had a resurgence of or increased ABD in the 72 hours post-immunization in the immunized infants and at the same post-natal age in the controls with an adjusted odds ratio for immunized infants of 2.41 (95% CI 1.29,4.51) as compared to control infants. The incidence of an increase in adverse cardiorespiratory events post-immunization was the same in infants receiving whole cell or acellular pertussis vaccine (44.1% versus 45.6%). Eighteen immunized infants (14.5%) and 51 control infants (41.1%) had a reduction in ABD in the 72 hours post- immunization or at the equivalent postnatal age in controls for an odds ratio of 0.175 (95%CI 0.08, 0.39). The need for therapy of ABD in the immunized infants was not statistically different from the control infants. Lower weight at the time of immunization was a risk factor for a resurgence of or increased ABD post-immunization. Birth weight, gestational age, postnatal age or sex were not risk factors. CONCLUSION: There is an increase in adverse cardiorespiratory events following the first dose of DTP-IPV-Hib in preterm infants. Lower current weight was identified as a risk factor, with the risk being equivalent for whole cell versus acellular pertussis vaccine. Although most of these events are of limited clinical significance, cardiorespiratory monitoring of infants who are sufficiently preterm that they are receiving their first immunization prior to hospital discharge should be considered for 72 hours post-immunization

Considerations for a combined index for limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis to support drug development and improve outcomes

Systemic sclerosis (systemic scleroderma) is characterized by a heterogeneous range of clinical manifestations. Systemic sclerosis is classified into limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis and diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis subgroups based on the extent of skin involvement. Randomized controlled trials in scleroderma have mainly focused on diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis partly because the measurement of skin involvement, critical for evaluating a therapeutic intervention, is more dynamic in this subset. Nonetheless, limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis, the most common cutaneous subset (about two-third), is also associated with significant morbidity and detrimental impact on health-related quality of life. The lack of interventional studies in limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis is partly due to a lack of relevant outcome measures to evaluate this subgroup. Combining several clinically meaningful outcomes selected specifically for limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis may improve representativeness in clinical trials and responsiveness of outcomes measured in randomized controlled trials. A composite index dedicated to limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis combining such relevant outcomes could advance clinical trial development for limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis by providing the opportunity to test and select among candidate drugs that could act as disease-modifying treatments for this neglected subgroup of systemic sclerosis. This proposed index would include items selected by expert physicians and patients with limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis across domains grounded in the lived experience of limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis. This article reviews the reasons behind the relative neglect of limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis, discusses the current state of outcome measures for limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis, identifies challenges, and proposes a roadmap for a combined limited cutaneous systemic sclerosis-specific treatment response index