Evaluating the relationship between ciprofloxacin prescription and non-susceptibility in Salmonella Typhi in Blantyre, Malawi: an observational study

Background: Ciprofloxacin is the first-line drug for treating typhoid fever in many countries in Africa with a high disease burden, but the emergence of non-susceptibility poses a challenge to public health programmes. Through enhanced surveillance as part of vaccine evaluation, we investigated the occurrence and potential determinants of ciprofloxacin non-susceptibility in Blantyre, Malawi. Methods: We conducted systematic surveillance of typhoid fever cases and antibiotic prescription in two health centres in Blantyre, Malawi, between Oct 1, 2016, and Oct 31, 2019, as part of the STRATAA and TyVAC studies. In addition, blood cultures were taken from eligible patients presenting at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Blantyre, as part of routine diagnosis. Inclusion criteria were measured or reported fever, or clinical suspicion of sepsis. Microbiologically, we identified Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (S Typhi) isolates with a ciprofloxacin non-susceptible phenotype from blood cultures, and used whole-genome sequencing to identify drug-resistance mutations and phylogenetic relationships. We constructed generalised linear regression models to investigate associations between the number of ciprofloxacin prescriptions given per month to study participants and the proportion of S Typhi isolates with quinolone resistance-determining region (QRDR) mutations in the following month. Findings: From 46 989 blood cultures from Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, 502 S Typhi isolates were obtained, 30 (6%) of which had either decreased ciprofloxacin susceptibility, or ciprofloxacin resistance. From 11 295 blood cultures from STRATAA and TyVAC studies, 241 microbiologically confirmed cases of typhoid fever were identified, and 198 isolates from 195 participants sequenced (mean age 12·8 years [SD 10·2], 53% female, 47% male). Between Oct 1, 2016, and Aug 31, 2019, of 177 typhoid fever cases confirmed by whole-genome sequencing, four (2%) were caused by S Typhi with QRDR mutations, compared with six (33%) of 18 cases between Sept 1 and Oct 31, 2019. This increase was associated with a preceding spike in ciprofloxacin prescriptions. Every additional prescription of ciprofloxacin given to study participants in the preceding month was associated with a 4·2% increase (95% CI 1·8–7·0) in the relative risk of isolating S Typhi with a QRDR mutation (p=0·0008). Phylogenetic analysis showed that S Typhi isolates with QRDR mutations from September and October, 2019, belonged to two distinct subclades encoding two different QRDR mutations, and were closely related (4–10 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) to susceptible S Typhi endemic to Blantyre. Interpretation: We postulate a causal relationship between increased ciprofloxacin prescriptions and an increase in fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility in S Typhi. Decreasing ciprofloxacin use by improving typhoid diagnostics, and reducing typhoid fever cases through the use of an efficacious vaccine, could help to limit the emergence of resistance. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health and Care Research (UK)

The Cholecystectomy As A Day Case (CAAD) Score: A Validated Score of Preoperative Predictors of Successful Day-Case Cholecystectomy Using the CholeS Data Set

Background Day-case surgery is associated with significant patient and cost benefits. However, only 43% of cholecystectomy patients are discharged home the same day. One hypothesis is day-case cholecystectomy rates, defined as patients discharged the same day as their operation, may be improved by better assessment of patients using standard preoperative variables. Methods Data were extracted from a prospectively collected data set of cholecystectomy patients from 166 UK and Irish hospitals (CholeS). Cholecystectomies performed as elective procedures were divided into main (75%) and validation (25%) data sets. Preoperative predictors were identified, and a risk score of failed day case was devised using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating curve analysis was used to validate the score in the validation data set. Results Of the 7426 elective cholecystectomies performed, 49% of these were discharged home the same day. Same-day discharge following cholecystectomy was less likely with older patients (OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), higher ASA scores (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.15–0.23), complicated cholelithiasis (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.48), male gender (OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.58–0.74), previous acute gallstone-related admissions (OR 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60) and preoperative endoscopic intervention (OR 0.40, 95% CI 0.34–0.47). The CAAD score was developed using these variables. When applied to the validation subgroup, a CAAD score of ≤5 was associated with 80.8% successful day-case cholecystectomy compared with 19.2% associated with a CAAD score >5 (p < 0.001). Conclusions The CAAD score which utilises data readily available from clinic letters and electronic sources can predict same-day discharges following cholecystectomy

Predicting the difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy: development and validation of a pre-operative risk score using an objective operative difficulty grading system

Background: The prediction of a difficult cholecystectomy has traditionally been based on certain pre-operative clinical and imaging factors. Most of the previous literature reported small patient cohorts and have not used an objective measure of operative difficulty. The aim of this study was to develop a pre-operative score to predict difficult cholecystectomy, as defined by a validated intra-operative difficulty grading scale. Method: Two cohorts from prospectively maintained databases of patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy were analysed: the CholeS Study (8755 patients) and a single surgeon series (4089 patients). Factors potentially predictive of difficulty were correlated to the Nassar intra-operative difficulty scale. A multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was then used to identify factors that were independently associated with difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomy, defined as operative difficulty grades 3 to 5. The resulting model was then converted to a risk score, and validated on both internal and external datasets. Result: Increasing age and ASA classification, male gender, diagnosis of CBD stone or cholecystitis, thick-walled gallbladders, CBD dilation, use of pre-operative ERCP and non-elective operations were found to be significant independent predictors of difficult cases. A risk score based on these factors returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.789 (95% CI 0.773–0.806, p &lt; 0.001) on external validation, with 11.0% versus 80.0% of patients classified as low versus high risk having difficult surgeries. Conclusion: We have developed and validated a pre-operative scoring system that uses easily available pre-operative variables to predict difficult laparoscopic cholecystectomies. This scoring system should assist in patient selection for day case surgery, optimising pre-operative surgical planning (e.g. allocation of the procedure to a suitably trained surgeon) and counselling patients during the consent process. The score could also be used to risk adjust outcomes in future research

The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (&gt; 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations &gt; 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p &lt; 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting &gt; 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care

Safety of hospital discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery

Background: Ileus is common after colorectal surgery and is associated with an increased risk of postoperative complications. Identifying features of normal bowel recovery and the appropriateness for hospital discharge is challenging. This study explored the safety of hospital discharge before the return of bowel function. Methods: A prospective, multicentre cohort study was undertaken across an international collaborative network. Adult patients undergoing elective colorectal resection between January and April 2018 were included. The main outcome of interest was readmission to hospital within 30 days of surgery. The impact of discharge timing according to the return of bowel function was explored using multivariable regression analysis. Other outcomes were postoperative complications within 30 days of surgery, measured using the Clavien\u2013Dindo classification system. Results: A total of 3288 patients were included in the analysis, of whom 301 (9\ub72 per cent) were discharged before the return of bowel function. The median duration of hospital stay for patients discharged before and after return of bowel function was 5 (i.q.r. 4\u20137) and 7 (6\u20138) days respectively (P &lt; 0\ub7001). There were no significant differences in rates of readmission between these groups (6\ub76 versus 8\ub70 per cent; P = 0\ub7499), and this remained the case after multivariable adjustment for baseline differences (odds ratio 0\ub790, 95 per cent c.i. 0\ub755 to 1\ub746; P = 0\ub7659). Rates of postoperative complications were also similar in those discharged before versus after return of bowel function (minor: 34\ub77 versus 39\ub75 per cent; major 3\ub73 versus 3\ub74 per cent; P = 0\ub7110). Conclusion: Discharge before return of bowel function after elective colorectal surgery appears to be safe in appropriately selected patients