Expanding the contribution of early warning to climate-resilient agricultural development in Africa

Extreme climate events can undermine agricultural and rural development progress. Even in years when extreme events do not occur, the uncertainty that results from climate-related risk is an impediment to sustainable intensification of agriculture and adoption of climate-smart agricultural production practices. Systems that provide early warning of climate extremes can reduce the adverse impacts of such events – if they are embedded in effective communication and linked to decision-making processes. However, there is a general consensus that early warning systems are not meeting their current potential to provide decisionmakers with timely information in a format that enables action. Recent failures to respond effectively to slowonset extreme climate events – particularly drought – have generally been attributed to failures in decisionmaking rather than failures in early warning. Therefore any investment in developing or improving early warning systems should be coupled with investment in improving communication and decision-making processes to maximize the benefit of early warning. In order to increase response, early warning systems must also tailor information for a broader set of actors ranging from global to community levels. Many institutions create early warning systems for their own operational purposes or share warnings broadly without regular feedback from stakeholders. Making appropriate early warning information available to decision-makers at a more local level can allow earlier, better targeted mitigation actions that may reduce long-term impacts of climate shocks on livelihoods, and reduce the need for emergency assistance later. Such an approach would require increased capacity at local levels and regular feedback to assure that the information provided is keeping pace with local dynamic

Improving early warning systems for agricultural resilience in Africa

Extreme climate events can undermine agriculture and rural development. Even in years when extreme events do not occur, the uncertainty that results from climate-related risk is an impediment to sustainable intensification of agriculture and adoption of climate-smart agricultural production practices. In an era of more frequent and more extreme weather events and climate shocks, enhanced early warning systems provide a key opportunity to curb erosion of development progress in rural sectors. This Info Note sets out recommendations to African policy makers for strengthening existing early warning systems and developing new systems in Africa

Rebalancing global nitrogen management in response to a fertilizer and food security crisis

As of Jan 18, 2023 this article is listed as a pre-print and as such has not been peer reviewed by the journalVulnerabilities of the global fuel-fertilizer-food nexus have been revealed by a regional geopolitical conflict causing sudden and massive supply disruptions. Across over- and under-fertilized agricultural systems, nitrogen (N) fertilizer price spikes will have very different effects and require differentiated responses. For staple cereal production in India, Ethiopia, and Malawi, our estimates of N-fertilizer savings show the value of integrated organic and inorganic N management. N-deficient systems benefit from shifting to more cost-effective, high-N fertilizer (such as urea), combined with compost and legumes. N-surplus systems achieve N savings through better targeted and more efficient N-fertilizer use. Globally, there is a need to re-balance access to N-fertilizers, while steering the right fertilizer to the right place, and managing N in combination with carbon through near-term interventions, while striving for longer-term sustainable management. Nationally, governments can invest in extension and re-align subsidies to enable and incentivize improved N management at the farm level

Replication Data for: Conservation Agriculture in Africa: Evidence from Mozambique and Zambia

CA has been promoted as a technology for tackling southern Africa’s smallholder farmers’ economic and agricultural challenges such as decreasing food production, climate change and variability, and soil nutrient depletion for more than a decade. Despite the investment, empirical evidence suggests variable and often partial adoption rates. In Zambia, for example, wide discrepancies exist in CA adoption numbers and area reported in both peer-reviewed literature and unpublished project reports (Whitfield et al 2015 and Twomlow et al., 2008). Thus, lack of clarity on what constitutes CA adoption represents a huge challenge in the accurate calculation of adoption rates in southern Africa and the whole African continent at large. Knowledge of the geographical spread and the number of CA adopters is useful planning tool for policy and evaluating economic and poverty impact at both country and regional level. The practice of CA does not necessarily make a farmer an “adopter”. Understanding the different kinds of possible CA ‘adoptions’ is important in defining and contextualizing indicators that relate to the adoption process. Measuring adoption for complex technology packages such as CA, that farmers disentangle into smaller parts and only adopt components they perceive to fit their farming systems requires a two tier process. First, measuring whether or not the technology has been adopted at all. Secondly, analyzing which components are adopted in what combination by which types of farmers across time and space. In this brief, we establish and verify the extent CA adoption in Mozambique and Zambia based on regionally accepted key minimums for CA

Can Ethiopia feed itself by 2050? Estimating cereal self-sufficiency to 2050

Producing adequate food to meet global demand by 2050 is widely recognized as a major challenge, particularly for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Godfray et al. 2010; Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012; van Ittersum et al. 2016). Increased price volatility of major food crops (Koning et al. 2008; Lagi et al. 2011), an abrupt surge in land area devoted to crop production in recent years (Grassini et al. 2013) and extensive labour force mobilization (NEPAD 2013) reflect the powerful forces underpinning this challenge to increase production. The 2008 price spikes triggered the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) to issue warnings, noting the 60–70 percent increase in food production by 2050 that will be needed to meet the escalating food demand for the expected 9.7 billion global population. In this policy brief we focus on the feasibility to meet such increase by 2050 with scenarios of population increase and dietary changes under current climate conditions. Current climate variability is very high in sub-Saharan Africa causing significant yield variations across years (e.g., Shiferaw et al. 2014; www.yieldgap.org). Climate change will further add to the food production challenge (Porter et al. 2014; Vermeulen et al. 2012; McKersie 2015). Smallholder farmers will need to adapt to a changing climate while at the same time they are expected to increase production in such way that it has a minimum effect on the drivers of climate change, i.e. mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.Non-PRIFPRI5; CRP2; CRP7; Global Futures and Strategic ForesightEPTD; PIM8 pagesCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS

Modeling the effect of a heat wave on maize production in the USA and its implications on food security in the developing world

This study uses geo-spatial crop modeling to quantify the biophysical impact of weather extremes. More specifically, the study analyzes the weather extreme which affected maize production in the USA in 2012; it also estimates the effect of a similar weather extreme in 2050, using future climate scenarios. The secondary impact of the weather extreme on food security in the developing world is also assessed using trend analysis. We used historical weather data for severe extreme events that have occurred in the USA. The data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition we used five climate scenarios: the baseline climate which is typical of the late 20th century (2000s) and four future climate scenarios which involve a combination of two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two global circulation models (CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2). DSSAT 4.5 was combined with GRASS GIS for geo-spatial crop modeling. Simulated maize grain yield across all affected regions in the USA indicates that average grain yield across the USA Corn Belt would decrease by 29% when the weather extremes occur using the baseline climate. If the weather extreme were to occur under the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s respectively, average grain yields would decrease by 38% and 57%, under the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2 global climate models, respectively

Maize systems under climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: Potential impacts on production and food security

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the biophysical and socioeconomic impacts of climate change on maize production and food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using adapted improved maize varieties and well-calibrated and validated bioeconomic models. Design/methodology/approach: Using the past climate (1950-2000) as a baseline, the study estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change in 2050 (2040-2069) and 2080 (2070-2099) under the A1B emission scenario and three nitrogen levels, and the socioeconomic impacts in 2050. Findings: Climate change will affect maize yields across SSA in 2050 and 2080, and the extent of the impact at a given period will vary considerably between input levels, regions and maize mega environments (MMEs). Greater relative yield reductions may occur under medium and high-input intensification than under low intensification, in Western and Southern Africa than in Eastern and Central Africa and in lowland and dry mid-altitude than in highland and wet mid-altitude MMEs. Climate change may worsen food insecurity in SSA in 2050 through its negative impact on maize consumption and reduction in daily calorie intake. However, international trade has the potential to offset some of the negative impacts. Originality/value: The study calibrated and applied bioeconomic models to estimate the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of climate change on maize production at fine resolution. The results could be used as a baseline to evaluate measures that will be applied to adapt maize to the future climate in SSA

Shaping Sustainable Intensive Production Systems - Improved Crops and Cropping Systems in the Developing World

This chapter focuses on the impacts of climate change on intensive maize and wheat production systems. Some technologies to close the yield gap to achieve sustainable intensification are also discussed

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself?

Although global food demand is expected to increase 60% by 2050 compared with 2005/2007, the rise will be much greater in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Indeed, SSA is the region at greatest food security risk because by 2050 its population will increase 2.5-fold and demand for cereals approximately triple, whereas current levels of cereal consumption already depend on substantial imports. At issue is whether SSA can meet this vast increase in cereal demand without greater reliance on cereal imports or major expansion of agricultural area and associated biodiversity loss and greenhouse gas emissions. Recent studies indicate that the global increase in food demand by 2050 can be met through closing the gap between current farm yield and yield potential on existing cropland. Here, however, we estimate it will not be feasible to meet future SSA cereal demand on existing production area by yield gap closure alone. Our agronomically robust yield gap analysis for 10 countries in SSA using location-specific data and a spatial upscaling approach reveals that, in addition to yield gap closure, other more complex and uncertain components of intensification are also needed, i.e., increasing cropping intensity (the number of crops grown per 12 mo on the same field) and sustainable expansion of irrigated production area. If intensification is not successful and massive cropland land expansion is to be avoided, SSA will depend much more on imports of cereals than it does today