Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020

BACKGROUND: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. RESULTS: In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n\u2009=\u2009305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n\u2009=\u2009604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since 6515 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+\u200937% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+\u200985%) and for thyroid cancers (+\u200979%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+\u200945%). Among the population aged 6575 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation need

Causes of death in women with breast cancer: a risks and rates study on a population-based cohort

IntroductionThe increasing survival of patients with breast cancer has prompted the assessment of mortality due to all causes of death in these patients. We estimated the absolute risks of death from different causes, useful for health-care planning and clinical prediction, as well as cause-specific hazards, useful for hypothesis generation on etiology and risk factors.Materials and methodsUsing data from population-based cancer registries we performed a retrospective study on a cohort of women diagnosed with primary breast cancer. We carried out a competing-cause analysis computing cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) and cause-specific hazards (CSHs) in the whole cohort, separately by age, stage and registry area.ResultsThe study cohort comprised 12,742 women followed up for six years. Breast cancer showed the highest CIF, 13.71%, and cardiovascular disease was the second leading cause of death with a CIF of 3.60%. The contribution of breast cancer deaths to the CIF for all causes varied widely by age class: 89.25% in women diagnosed at age <50 years, 72.94% in women diagnosed at age 50–69 and 48.25% in women diagnosed at age ≥70. Greater CIF variations were observed according to stage: the contribution of causes other than breast cancer to CIF for all causes was 73.4% in women with stage I disease, 42.9% in stage II–III and only 13.2% in stage IV. CSH computation revealed temporal variations: in women diagnosed at age ≥70 the CSH for breast cancer was equaled by that for cardiovascular disease and “other diseases” in the sixth year following diagnosis, and an early peak for breast cancer was identified in the first year following diagnosis. Among women aged 50–69 we identified an early peak for breast cancer followed by a further peak near the second year of follow-up. Comparison by geographic area highlighted conspicuous variations: the highest CIF for cardiovascular disease was more than 70% higher than the lowest, while for breast cancer the highest CIF doubled the lowest.ConclusionThe integrated interpretation of absolute risks and hazards suggests the need for multidisciplinary surveillance and prevention using community-based, holistic and well-coordinated survivorship care models

Environmental Burden of Disease in Europe: Assessing Nine Risk Factors in Six Countries

Hänninen O, Knol AB, Jantunen M, et al. Environmental Burden of Disease in Europe: Assessing Nine Risk Factors in Six Countries. Environmental Health Perspectives. 2014;122(5):439-446

Molecular Subtypes, Metastatic Pattern and Patient Age in Breast Cancer: An Analysis of Italian Network of Cancer Registries (AIRTUM) Data

Breast cancer stage at diagnosis, patient age and molecular tumor subtype influence disease progression. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationships between these factors and survival in breast cancer patients among the Italian population using data from the AIRTUM national database. We enrolled women with primary breast cancer from 17 population-based cancer registries. Patients were subdivided into older (>69 years), middle (50–69 years) and younger age groups (<50 years) and their primary tumors categorized into four molecular subtypes based on hormone receptor (HR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) status. There were 8831 patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2012 included. The most represented age group was 50–69 years (41.7%). In 5735 cases the molecular subtype was identified: HER2–/HR+ was the most frequent (66.2%) and HER2+/HR− the least (6.2%). Of the 390 women with metastases at diagnosis, 38% had simultaneous involvement of multiple sites, independent of age and molecular profile. In women with a single metastatic site, bone (20% of cases), liver (11%), lung (7%) and brain (3%) were the most frequent. In the studied age groups with different receptor expression profiles, the tumor metastasized to target organs with differing frequencies, affecting survival. Five-year survival was lowest in women with triple-negative (HER2−/HR–) tumors and women with brain metastases at diagnosis

The impact of overdiagnosis on thyroid cancer epidemic in Italy,1998-2012

Aims: In Italy, incidence rates of thyroid cancer (TC) are among the highest world- wide with substantial intracountry heterogeneity. The aim of the study was to examine time trends of TC incidence in Italy and to estimate the proportion of TC cases potentially attribut- able to overdiagnosis. Methods: Data on TC cases reported to Italian cancer registries during 1998e2012 aged <85 years were included. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were computed by sex, period, and histology. TC overdiagnosis was estimated by sex, period, age, and Italian region. Results: In Italy between 1998e2002 and 2008e2012, TC ASR increased of 74% in women (from 16.2 to 28.2/100,000) and of 90% in men (from 5.3 to 10.1/100,000). ASR increases were nearly exclusively due to papillary TC (þ91% in women, þ120% in men). In both sexes, more than three-fold differences emerged between regions with highest and lowest ASR. Among TC cases diagnosed in 1998e2012 in Italy, we estimated that overdiagnosis accounted for 75% of cases in women and 63% in men and increased over the study period leading to overdiagnosis of 79% in women and 67% in men in 2008e2012. Notably, overdiagnosis was over 80% among women aged <55 years, and substantial variations were documented across Italian regions, in both genders. Conclusion(s): Incidence rates of TC are steadily increasing in Italy and largely due to over- diagnosis. These findings call for an update of thyroid gland examination practices in the asymptomatic general population, at national and regional levels. a 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors: Design and Characteristics of the First Nationwide Population-Based Cohort in Italy

Purpose: Adolescent and young adult (AYA, 15-39 years) cancer survivors (alive at least 5 years after cancer diagnosis) are less studied than younger and older cancer survivors and research on their late effects is limited. To facilitate research on long-term outcomes of AYA cancer survivors, we established, in Italy, a population-based AYA cancer survivors' cohort. This article describes the study design and main characteristics of this cohort.Methods: The cohort derives from population-based cancer registries (CRs). Each CR identified AYA cancer patients retrospectively. Treatment for first primary cancer and all health events from diagnosis to death can be traced through linkage with available health databases, such as hospital discharge records (HDRs), mortality files, and outpatient and pharmaceutical databases.Results: Thirty-four CRs participated to the cohort which overall includes 93,291 AYAs with cancer and 67,692 cancer survivors. First primary cancer distribution in AYA cancer survivors differs by sex and age groups because of the different cancer types diagnosed in AYAs. Almost 78% of AYA cancer survivors have HDRs and 14.8% also pharmaceutical and outpatient databases.Conclusion: This cohort will be used to study, for the first time in Italy, the pattern and excess risk of late effects in AYA cancer survivors. HDRs, outpatient and pharmaceutical databases will be used to define primary treatment to assess its impact on AYA cancer survivors' late effects. This cohort exploiting data sources already available at CRs, minimize the data collection effort and it will contribute to assess the feasibility of using administrative database to study cancer survivors' late effects

Complete prevalence and indicators of cancer cure: enhanced methods and validation in Italian population-based cancer registries

ObjectivesTo describe the procedures to derive complete prevalence and several indicators of cancer cure from population-based cancer registries. Materials and methodsCancer registry data (47% of the Italian population) were used to calculate limited duration prevalence for 62 cancer types by sex and registry. The incidence and survival models, needed to calculate the completeness index (R) and complete prevalence, were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests and by visual comparison. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect on the complete prevalence of using different R indexes. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival (NS); life expectancy of fatal (LEF) cases; cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC); cure prevalence, prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer; and already cured patients, those living longer than TTC at a specific point in time. CF was also compared with long-term NS since, for patients diagnosed after a certain age, CF (representing asymptotical values of NS) is reached far beyond the patient's life expectancy. ResultsFor the most frequent cancer types, the Weibull survival model stratified by sex and age showed a very good fit with observed survival. For men diagnosed with any cancer type at age 65-74 years, CF was 41%, while the NS was 49% until age 100 and 50% until age 90. In women, similar differences emerged for patients with any cancer type or with breast cancer. Among patients alive in 2018 with colorectal cancer at age 55-64 years, 48% were already cured (had reached their specific TTC), while the cure prevalence (lifelong probability to be cured from cancer) was 89%. Cure prevalence became 97.5% (2.5% will die because of their neoplasm) for patients alive >5 years after diagnosis. ConclusionsThis study represents an addition to the current knowledge on the topic providing a detailed description of available indicators of prevalence and cancer cure, highlighting the links among them, and illustrating their interpretation. Indicators may be relevant for patients and clinical practice; they are unambiguously defined, measurable, and reproducible in different countries where population-based cancer registries are active

The impact of overdiagnosis on thyroid cancer epidemic in Italy,1998–2012

Aims: In Italy, incidence rates of thyroid cancer (TC) are among the highest worldwide with substantial intracountry heterogeneity. The aim of the study was to examine time trends of TC incidence in Italy and to estimate the proportion of TC cases potentially attributable to overdiagnosis. Methods: Data on TC cases reported to Italian cancer registries during 1998–2012 aged <85 years were included. Age-standardised incidence rates (ASR) were computed by sex, period, and histology. TC overdiagnosis was estimated by sex, period, age, and Italian region. Results: In Italy between 1998–2002 and 2008–2012, TC ASR increased of 74% in women (from 16.2 to 28.2/100,000) and of 90% in men (from 5.3 to 10.1/100,000). ASR increases were nearly exclusively due to papillary TC (+91% in women, +120% in men). In both sexes, more than three-fold differences emerged between regions with highest and lowest ASR. Among TC cases diagnosed in 1998–2012 in Italy, we estimated that overdiagnosis accounted for 75% of cases in women and 63% in men and increased over the study period leading to overdiagnosis of 79% in women and 67% in men in 2008–2012. Notably, overdiagnosis was over 80% among women aged <55 years, and substantial variations were documented across Italian regions, in both genders. Conclusion(s): Incidence rates of TC are steadily increasing in Italy and largely due to overdiagnosis. These findings call for an update of thyroid gland examination practices in the asymptomatic general population, at national and regional levels