The Challenges of the EU Banking Union - will it succeed in dealing with the next financial crisis? Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 36/2015

The EU Banking Union combines micro- and macro-prudential regulation. It aims at breaking the “doom loop” between banks and sovereign debt, promoting financial stability and mitigating the next financial shock to the real EU economy, at the lowest possible cost to the financial institutions and to the taxpayers. Success, or failure, is determined by how the banking union copes with the challenges to its two main pillars, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). Under the SSM, in its new supervisory role, the ECB may be subject to conflicts between the objectives of price and financial stability, and the single-supervisor role may be sub-optimal. Two regulators might have been preferable and more focus on ECB accountability will now be required. The shock-absorbing Single Resolution Fund (SRF), which is part of the SRM, may not have the capacity to deal with a crisis of the size of the one of 2008. Especially as the nature and severity of a future financial crisis cannot be forecasted. The design of the banking union is not the result of theoretical studies, but a political compromise to deal with an acute crisis. The theoretical studies that are included in this paper are not supportive of the banking union in its current form. Nevertheless, there is a good chance that the EU Banking Union may succeed, as ECB supervision of the 123 systemically important banks should contain potential demands on the SRM. In the event of a crisis that is too severe for the banking union to absorb with its current capability, the crucial assumption is that there is political will to rapidly provide new resources. The same applies, if a major financial crisis develops before the banking union is fully operational

Mission at Mubasi - A Simulation for Leadership Development

The United States Army is investing in simulations as a way of providing practice for leader decision making. Such simulations, grounded in lessons learned from deployment experienced leaders, place less experienced and more junior leaders in challenging situations they might soon be confronted with. And given increased demands on the Army to become more efficient, while maintaining acceptable levels of mission readiness, simulations offer a cost effective complement to live field training. So too, the design parameters of such a simulation can be made to reinforce specific behavior responses which teach leaders known theory and application of effective (and ineffective) decision making. With this in mind, the Center for Army Leadership (CAL) determined that decision-making was of critical importance. Specifically, the following aspects of decision-making were viewed as particularly important for today's Army leaders: 1) Decision dilemmas, in the form of equally appealing or equally unappealing choices, such that there is no clear "right" or "wrong" choice 2) Making decisions with incomplete or ambiguous information, and 3) Predicting and experiencing second- and third-order consequences of decisions. It is decision making in such a setting or environment that Army leaders are increasingly confronted with given the full spectrum of military operations they must be prepared for. This paper details the approach and development of this decision making simulation

The Effect of Workfare Policy on Crime

In this paper, we focus on a novel and potentially important aspect of the workfare policy in the Danish labor market, namely its effect on crime. We do this by exploiting two policy changes. First, we examine the effect of a series of national welfare reforms introduced during the 1990s. Those reforms strengthened the work requirement for the young welfare recipients and were introduced gradually, starting with younger welfare participants first. We exploit the differential introduction of workfare reform across different age groups as the exogenous variation. Second, we use a unique policy experiment that began in 1987 by an innovative mayor of the Danish city of Farum, where he imposed a 100 % work or training requirement for all welfare recipients immediately from the date of enrollment. By comparing the changes in crime rates among the welfare recipients in Farum before and after 1987 with that of the rest of Denmark, we identify the effect of workfare on the crime rate. Our results show a dramatic decline in the arrest rate among welfare recipients after the introduction of the stronger workfare requirements, both at the national level and in Farum. Those results imply a strong and significant crime reducing effect of the workfare policy.Workfare, Crime, Welfare

Transfer between hospitals as a predictor of delay in diagnosis and treatment of patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer:a register based cohort-study

Abstract Background Lung cancer is the second most frequent cancer diagnosis in Denmark. Although improved during the last decade, the prognosis of lung cancer is still poor with an overall 5-year survival rate of approximately 12%. Delay in diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer has been suggested as a potential cause of the poor prognosis and as consequence, fast track cancer care pathways were implemented describing maximum acceptable time thresholds from referral to treatment. In Denmark, patients with lung cancer are often transferred between hospitals with diagnostic facilities to hospitals with treatment facilities during the care pathway. We wanted to investigate whether this organizational set-up influenced the time that patients wait for the diagnosis and treatment. Therefore, the objective of this study was to uncover the impact of transfer between hospitals on the delay in the diagnosis and treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). Methods We performed a historical prospective cohort study using data from the Danish Lung Cancer Registry (DLCR). All patients diagnosed with primary NSCLC from January 1st 2008 to December 31st 2012 were included. Patients with unresolved pathology and incomplete data on the dates of referral, diagnosis and treatment were excluded. Results A total of 11 273 patients were included for further analyses. Transfer patients waited longer for treatment after the diagnosis, (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.81 (0.68–0.96)) and in total time from referral to treatment (HR 0.84 (0.77–0.92)), than no-transfer patients. Transfer patients had lower odds of being diagnosed (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.82 (0.74–0.94) and treated (OR 0.66 (0.61–0.72) within the acceptable time thresholds described in the care pathway. Conclusion Fast track cancer care pathways were implemented to unify and accelerate the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. We found that the transfer between hospitals during the care pathway might cause delay from diagnosis to treatment as well as in the total time from referral to treatment in patients with Non Small-Cell Lung Cancer. The difference between no-transfer and transfer patients persists after adjusting for known predictors of delay

Transfer between hospitals as a predictor of delay in diagnosis and treatment of patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer:a register based cohort-study

Abstract Background Lung cancer is the second most frequent cancer diagnosis in Denmark. Although improved during the last decade, the prognosis of lung cancer is still poor with an overall 5-year survival rate of approximately 12%. Delay in diagnosis and treatment of lung cancer has been suggested as a potential cause of the poor prognosis and as consequence, fast track cancer care pathways were implemented describing maximum acceptable time thresholds from referral to treatment. In Denmark, patients with lung cancer are often transferred between hospitals with diagnostic facilities to hospitals with treatment facilities during the care pathway. We wanted to investigate whether this organizational set-up influenced the time that patients wait for the diagnosis and treatment. Therefore, the objective of this study was to uncover the impact of transfer between hospitals on the delay in the diagnosis and treatment of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC). Methods We performed a historical prospective cohort study using data from the Danish Lung Cancer Registry (DLCR). All patients diagnosed with primary NSCLC from January 1st 2008 to December 31st 2012 were included. Patients with unresolved pathology and incomplete data on the dates of referral, diagnosis and treatment were excluded. Results A total of 11 273 patients were included for further analyses. Transfer patients waited longer for treatment after the diagnosis, (Hazard ratio (HR) 0.81 (0.68–0.96)) and in total time from referral to treatment (HR 0.84 (0.77–0.92)), than no-transfer patients. Transfer patients had lower odds of being diagnosed (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.82 (0.74–0.94) and treated (OR 0.66 (0.61–0.72) within the acceptable time thresholds described in the care pathway. Conclusion Fast track cancer care pathways were implemented to unify and accelerate the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. We found that the transfer between hospitals during the care pathway might cause delay from diagnosis to treatment as well as in the total time from referral to treatment in patients with Non Small-Cell Lung Cancer. The difference between no-transfer and transfer patients persists after adjusting for known predictors of delay

The effect of workfare policy on crime

In this paper, we focus on a novel and potentially important aspect of the workfare policy in the Danish labor market, namely its effect on crime. We do this by exploiting two policy changes. First, we examine the effect of a series of national welfare reforms introduced during the 1990s. Those reforms strengthened the work requirement for the young welfare recipients and were introduced gradually, starting with younger welfare participants first. We exploit the differential introduction of workfare reform across different age groups as the exogenous variation. Second, we use a unique policy experiment that began in 1987 by an innovative mayor of the Danish city of Farum, where he imposed a 100 % work or training requirement for all welfare recipients immediately from the date of enrollment. By comparing the changes in crime rates among the welfare recipients in Farum before and after 1987 with that of the rest of Denmark, we identify the effect of workfare on the crime rate

The ecology of macrozoobenthos in Arhus Bay, Denmark

The aim of this thesis has been to: 1) assess the state of pollution in the two study areas and relate them to recent changes found in the Kattegat - Belt Sea area; 2) examine the observed spatial and temporal variability in species composition, abundance and biomass in Arhus Bay and the Formes area and relate the variability to antropogenic and natural causes; 3) discuss and assess methods, particularly for the estimation of secondary production and the use of multivariate analyses as methods for examining changes in macrozoobenthic communities. Macrozoobenthos were sampled at 15 stations in Arhus Bay, Denmark from 1985 to 1991 while data from Formes (reference area) included 55 sampling stations from 1986 to 1990. Monthly sampling took place at one station in Arhus Bay in 1990 and 1991. The two study areas are both situated on the eastcoast of Jutland in the Kattegat - Belt Sea area at 13-17 m depth and both receive waste water from long sea outfalls. Although both areas are Subjected to salinity stratification for most of the year, the exposed position of the Formes area on the open Kattegat coast prevents it from suffering from severe oxygen deficiencies, unlike the Arhus Bay which is a sheltered, semi-enclosed sedimentation area where oxygen concentrations in the bottom water can be very low. At Formes the sediment is sandy while it is silty in Arhus Bay. The spatial and temporal variability in the benthos in Arhus Bay could to a great extent be explained by the variation in 7 important species: Abra alba, Corbula gibba, Mysella bidentata, Nepthys hombergii, N. ciliata, Ophiura albida and Echinocardium cordatum. The fluctuations in the number and biomass of A. alba had a pronounced effect on the total abundance and biomass in Arhus Bay. The severe winter of 1986/87 with low temperatures and oxygen depletion under the ice cover practically eliminated A. alba from the bay. A. alba quickly recolonized the area and was found in high numbers in 1988. Studies of growth of A. alba in 1990 and 1991 showed that by the end of 1990 the population had reached an average length of 10 mm while the average shell length was only 5 mm by the end of 1991. The difference between the two years could be attributed to the difference in sedimentation of phytoplankton from the water column. As in other parts of the Kattegat - Belt Sea area, Arhus Bay has experienced low oxygen concentrations in the bottom water in late summer early autumn throughout the 1980s. Only the oxygen depletion under the ice cover in early spring 1987 and the local oxygen deficiencies south of the outlet in 1989 and 1990 actually killed parts of the benthic fauna. Apart from 1981, the oxygen deficiencies have thus been less severe in Arhus Bay than in other parts of the southern Kattegat in the 1980s. The number of species, abundance and biomass decreased at Fornres from 1980 to 1985 while the discharge of BOD was fairly constant during the same period. From 1986 there was a slight decrease in the discharge of BOD but a considerable increase in the number of species, abundance and biomass. At least for the second half of the 1980s there was no straightforward relation between the organic enrichment from the outlet and species composition, abundance and biomass and suggests that other factors are also important influencing the fluctuations in the benthic fauna. Estimates of total secondary community production were found to be very dependent on the method used. The method described by Brey (1990) was found acceptable for estimating secondary production in Arhus Bay but care should be exercised when comparisons are made with other areas where different methods have been used to estimate production. Secondary production was estimated more accurately for some of the abundant species in Arhus Bay on the basis of monthly samplings by the method described by Crisp (1984). Among the multivariate analyses the Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) proved to be the most successful with the Arhus Bay and Fornes data sets. Two Way INdicator SPecies ANalysis (TWINSPAN) did not work well with the Fornes data because it imposed discontinuities on data sets with continous variation in distribution of species among samples. As community types existed to a certain degree in Arhus Bay TWINSPAN worked well with these data. DCA and MDS were found to be useful techniques for analysing large data sets because they can summarize the data matrices to a manageable form and find possible patterns in the data sets. The results of the analyses can then be used as starting point for more detailed investigations of single species/samples or groups of species/samples. By using different transformations of the raw data the role of dominant or rare species can be assessed. A major 'problem in the assessment of multivariate techniques is the lack of external standards to compare with. The results of multivariate analyses must therefore be assessed critically on the basis of a careful examination of the species list combined with the knowledge and experience of the investigator. The methods used all had their advantages and limitations but each of the different methods added some important information to the picture of the benthic community in Arhus Bay and Fornes. It was thus an considerable advantage to use several different methods to analyse the spatial and temporal variability in the benthic fauna in relation to antropogenic and natural causes

"It's not really about alcohol, you know"

This paper is about the role that alcohol consumption plays in the (re)definition of Turkishness at a time where the secular foundations of the country are being challenged by the religious-conservative Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP). We see how alcohol consumption shed its marginal position in the middle of the 19th century, being elevated to the status of drink of the elites, how this in turn shaped the lifestyles of those growing up in the urban centers throughout the next century and a half, the native secularists, and how it is perhaps again on the way to a marginal position in the Turkish society. Taking a closer look on the interviews, we learn that the postulated dichotomy in reality takes on the appearance of a spectrum of attitudes toward alcohol consumption, and by inserting the ethnographical material in a historical context and analyzing it through literature on secularization and modernity, it becomes evident that alcohol consumption in Turkey assumes the position of an icon, or a counter-icon, used by some groups to claim ownership to the nation