Electric vehicle charging network in Europe: An accessibility and deployment trends analysis

If coupled with a low-carbon electricity mix, electric vehicles (EVs) can represent an important technology for transport decarbonization and local pollutants abatement. Yet, to ensure large-scale EVs adoption, an adequate charging stations network must be developed. This paper provides the first comprehensive bottom-up analysis of the EV charging network in Europe. Combining a crowd-sourced database of charging stations with accessibility data and algorithms, we produce maps of the travel time to the most accessible EV charging station across Europe, we evaluate the charging points density and the number of active operators in different areas. We find that although recent years have witnessed a notable expansion of the EV charging network, stark inequalities persist across and within countries, both in terms of accessibility and of the charging points available to users. Our results allow for a better understanding of some of the key challenges ahead for ensuring mass EVs adoption throughout Europe and thus potentially reducing the environmental impact of the transport sector

Energy access investment, agricultural profitability, and rural development: time for an integrated approach

In rural sub-Saharan Africa, the global poverty hotspot, smallholder farmers account for 80% of agricultural production, with 90% of cropland being exclusively rainfed. A key obstacle to rural development and poverty elimination is the lack of electricity access: less than one in three dwellers have electricity at home. The main barrier to rural electrification is the capital-intensiveness of energy supply infrastructure among sparse communities with low demand density and insecurity of payment. While public governments have largely been unable to channel the required resources, private players are often unwilling to pursue risky and unprofitable household electrification programs. In this context, this perspective argues that the paradigm of rural electrification should be centred around an integrated approach aiming at increasing agricultural productivity and profitability. These bear the necessary potential to enable local income generation and thus also provide an incentive for private energy investment, including in the residential sector. A framework for the integrated approach is proposed and the crucial synergetic role of data modelling and business and policy research to pursue this paradigm is discussed

Monitoring hydropower reliability in Malawi with satellite data and machine learning

Hydro-climatic extremes can affect the reliability of electricity supply, in par-ticular in countries that depend greatly on hydropower or cooling water andhave a limited adaptive capacity. Assessments of the vulnerability of the powersector and of the impact of extreme events are thus crucial for decision-makers,and yet often they are severely constrained by data scarcity. Here, we intro-duce and validate an energy-climate-water framework linking remotely-senseddata from multiple satellite missions and instruments (TOPEX/POSEIDON.OSTM/Jason, VIIRS, MODIS, TMPA, AMSR-E) and field observations. Theplatform exploits random forests regression algorithms to mitigate data scarcityand predict river discharge variability when ungauged. The validated predic-tions are used to assess the impact of hydroclimatic extremes on hydropowerreliability and on the final use of electricity in urban areas proxied by night-time light radiance variation. We apply the framework to the case of Malawifor the periods 2000-2018 and 2012-2018 for hydrology and power, respectively.Our results highlight the significant impact of hydro-climatic variability anddry extremes on both the supply of electricity and its final use. We thus showthat a modelling framework based on open-access data from satellites, machinelearning algorithms, and regression analysis can mitigate data scarcity and im-prove the understanding of vulnerabilities. The proposed approach can supportlong-term infrastructure development monitoring and identify vulnerable pop-ulations, in particular under a changing climate

Probabilistic forecasting of remotely sensed cropland vegetation health and its relevance for food security

In a world where climate change, population growth, and global diseases threaten economic access to food, policies and contingency plans can strongly benefit from reliable forecasts of agricultural vegetation health. To inform decisions, it is also crucial to quantify the forecasting uncertainty and prove its relevance for food security. Yet, in previous studies both these aspects have been largely overlooked. This paper develops a methodology to anticipate the agricultural Vegetation Health Index (VHI) while making the underlying prediction uncertainty explicit. To achieve this aim, a probabilistic machine learning framework modelling weather and climate determinants is introduced and implemented through Quantile Random Forests. In a second step, a statistical link between VHI forecasts and monthly food price variations is established. As a pilot implementation, the framework is applied to nine countries of South-East Asia (SEA) with consideration of national monthly rice prices. Model benchmarks show satisfactory accuracy metrics, suggesting that the probabilistic VHI predictions can provide decision-makers with reliable information about future cropland health and its impact on food price variation weeks or even months ahead, albeit with increasing uncertainty as the forecasting horizon grows. These results - ultimately allowing to anticipate the impact of weather shocks on household food expenditure - contribute to advancing the multidisciplinary literature linking vegetation health, probabilistic forecasting models, and food security policy

Short-run effects of grid electricity access on rural non-farm entrepreneurship and employment in Ethiopia and Nigeria

Empirical evaluation of the household-level economic effects of electricity access in rural regions has challenged researchers due to data scarcity issues and identification challenges. Previous studies provide mixed evidence depending on the context and the empirical approach adopted. Continued efforts towards a robust understanding of this linkage are necessary for guiding the design of rural electricity access and economic development policies. Here we carry out a difference-in-differences analysis with staggered treatment timing, revisiting prior work reporting short-run effects of rural electrification on household non-farm entrepreneurship and employment trends in Ethiopia and Nigeria between 2010–2015. Our results indicate that rural electrification considered alone was insufficient to trigger shifts in non-farm entrepreneurship and non-farm household employment outcomes in the 2–4 years following grid connection in either country. We do find some evidence in Nigeria of farm employment intensification over this short-term. Our work contributes to improving the understanding of the causal pathway in question while also highlighting the limitations of short-term survey datasets in pursuing this goal

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21 st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Background and objectives: The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations' heat exposure in the early (1995-2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research design and methods: We estimate older adults' heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results: Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the U.S., with particular "hotspots" in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and implications: Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in healthcare and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging

Harnessing finance for a new era of decentralised electricity access: A review of private investment patterns and emerging business models

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires ensuring universal energy access. Yet, governments of low-income countries face significant budget constraints for the capital-intensive infrastructure required to reach the hundreds of millions of households and businesses without grid electricity. In this context, private investors are the key actors capable of channelling such large capital requirements. Compared to the previous decades, the 2010s witnessed a growing mobilization of private funding in the off-grid electricity access sector, including some success stories. Nonetheless, with less than ten years left until the SDGs horizon, off-grid companies systematically struggle to ensure the financial sustainability of projects, as the industry still seeks to demonstrate its maturity and profitability. In this paper, we critically review the main business approaches adopted by private decentralised electricity access service providers. The aim of the analysis is to identify the main drivers of risk and failure which have been hindering sectoral investment. We then propose and discuss four potential game-changing factors that could foster the next generation of private investment in decentralised electricity solutions: (i) anchor-businesses-community (ABC) models; (ii) the design of integrated business models centred around income generation; (iii) the growing role for “local” financiers; (iv) the securitization of assets. Our paper targets private infrastructure developers and financiers aiming at fostering investment in financially sustainable decentralised electricity access projects

Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review

In sub-Saharan Africa, 160 million grid-connected electricity consumers live in countries where hydropower accounts for over 50% of total power supply. A warmer climate with more frequent and intense extremes could result in supply reliability issues. Here, (i) a robust framework to highlight the interdependencies between hydropower, water availability, and climate change is proposed, (ii) the state-of-the art literature on the projected impacts of climate change on hydropower in sub-Saharan Africa is reviewed, and (iii) supporting evidence on past trends and current pathways of power mix diversification, drought incidence, and climate change projections is provided. We find that only few countries have pursued a diversification strategy away from hydropower over the last three decades, while others' expansion plans will reinforce the dependency. This will occur irrespective of the fact that some of the largest river basins have experienced a significant drying during the last century. Agreement is found on likely positive impacts of climate change on East Africa's hydropower potential, negative impacts in West and Southern Africa, and substantial uncertainty in Central Africa. Irrespective of the absolute change in gross technical potential, more frequent and intense extremes are projected. One possible paradigm to increase resilience and fulfil the pledges of the Paris Agreement is a synergetic planning and management of hydropower and variable renewables