Key factors affecting the future provision of tree-based forest ecosystem goods and services

The continuous provisioning of forest ecosystem goods and services (EGS) is of considerable interest to society. To provide insights on how much EGS provision will change with a changing climate and which factors will influence this change the most, we simulated forest stands on six climatically different sites in Central Europe under several scenarios of species diversity, management, and climate change. We evaluated the influence of these factors on the provision of a range of tree-based EGS, represented by harvested basal area, total biomass, stand diversity, and productivity. The most influential factor was species diversity, with diverse forest stands showing a lower sensitivity to climate change than monocultures. Management mainly influenced biomass, with the most intensively managed stands retaining more of their original biomass than others. All three climate-change scenarios yielded very similar results. We showed that (1) only few factor combinations perform worse under climate-change conditions than others, (2) diversity aspects are important for adaptive management measures, but for some indicators, management may be more important than diversity, and (3) at locations subject to increasing drought, the future provision of EGS may decrease regardless of the factor combination. This quantitative evaluation of the influence of different factors on changes in the provision of forest EGS with climate change represents an important step towards the design of more focused adaptation strategies and highlights key factors that should be considered in simulation studies under climate chang

Effectiveness of Example-Based Explanations to Improve Human Decision Quality in Machine Learning Forecasting Systems

Algorithmic forecasts outperform human forecasts by 10% on average. State-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms have further expanded this discrepancy. Because a variety of other activities rely on them, sales forecasting is critical to a company\u27s profitability. However, individuals are hesitant to use ML forecasts. To overcome this algorithm aversion, explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) can be a solution by making ML systems more comprehensible by providing explanations. However, current XAI techniques are incomprehensible for laymen, as they impose too much cognitive load. We contribute to this research gap by investigating the effectiveness in terms of forecast accuracy of two example-based explanation approaches. We conduct an online experiment based on a two-by-two between-subjects design with factual and counterfactual examples as experimental factors. A control group has access to ML predictions, but not to explanations. We report results of this study: While factual explanations significantly improved participants’ decision quality, counterfactual explanations did not

Conceptual Foundations on Debiasing for Machine Learning-Based Software

Machine learning (ML)-based software’s deployment has raised serious concerns about its pervasive and harmful consequences for users, business, and society inflicted through bias. While approaches to address bias are increasingly recognized and developed, our understanding of debiasing remains nascent. Research has yet to provide a comprehensive coverage of this vast growing field, much of which is not embedded in theoretical understanding. Conceptualizing and structuring the nature, effect, and implementation of debiasing instruments could provide necessary guidance for practitioners investing in debiasing efforts. We develop a taxonomy that classifies debiasing instrument characteristics into seven key dimensions. We evaluate and refine our taxonomy through nine experts and apply our taxonomy to three actual debiasing instruments, drawing lessons for the design and choice of appropriate instruments. Bridging the gaps between our conceptual understanding of debiasing for ML-based software and its organizational implementation, we discuss contributions and future research

Adapting a growth equation to model tree regeneration in mountain forests

Management and risk analysis of protection forests depend on a reliable estimation of regeneration processes and tree growth under different site conditions. While the growth of forest stands and thus the average growth of larger trees is well studied and published in yield tables as well as embodied in numerous simulation models, there is still a lack of information about the crucial initial stages of tree growth. Thus, we evaluated juvenile tree growth for different site conditions in the Swiss Alps and developed an approach to model both the early and later stages of growth based on the Bertalanffy equation. This equation is physiologically well founded and requires only two parameter estimates: a maximum tree height and a growth parameter. Data for the parameter estimation were available from studies of tree regeneration at a range of sites in Switzerland: growth patterns of larch (Larix decidua) were available from a high-elevation afforestation experiment. For spruce (Picea abies), data were obtained from a blowdown area in the Alps. The growth equation was fitted to the observed data and we found a good correlation of the fitted curves with the observed data. The parameter estimates were validated with independent data sets. The extrapolated growth curves, calculated with the estimated growth rates, correspond well to the validation data. Thus, it is possible to use the Bertalanffy equation to model both the early and later stages of growth. With this approach, we provide a basis for modelling the growth of juvenile and mature trees of different tree species in mountain forests of the European Alp

Explanation Interfaces for Sales Forecasting

Algorithmic forecasts outperform human forecasts in many tasks. State-of-the-art machine learning (ML) algorithms have even widened that gap. Since sales forecasting plays a key role in business profitability, ML based sales forecasting can have significant advantages. However, individuals are resistant to use algorithmic forecasts. To overcome this algorithm aversion, explainable AI (XAI), where an explanation interface (XI) provides model predictions and explanations to the user, can help. However, current XAI techniques are incomprehensible for laymen. Despite the economic relevance of sales forecasting, there is no significant research effort towards aiding non-expert users make better decisions using ML forecasting systems by designing appropriate XI. We contribute to this research gap by designing a model-agnostic XI for laymen. We propose a design theory for XIs, instantiate our theory and report initial formative evaluation results. A real-world evaluation context is used: A medium-sized Swiss bakery chain provides past sales data and human forecasts

Dynamic Human Body Models in Vehicle Safety: An Overview

Significant trends in the vehicle industry are autonomous driving, micromobility, electrification and the increased use of shared mobility solutions. These new vehicle automation and mobility classes lead to a larger number of occupant positions, interiors and load directions. As safety systems interact with and protect occupants, it is essential to place the human, with its variability and vulnerability, at the center of the design and operation of these systems. Digital human body models (HBMs) can help meet these requirements and are therefore increasingly being integrated into the development of new vehicle models. This contribution provides an overview of current HBMs and their applications in vehicle safety in different driving modes. The authors briefly introduce the underlying mathematical methods and present a selection of HBMs to the reader. An overview table with guideline values for simulation times, common applications and available variants of the models is provided. To provide insight into the broad application of HBMs, the authors present three case studies in the field of vehicle safety: (i) in-crash finite element simulations and injuries of riders on a motorcycle; (ii) scenario-based assessment of the active pre-crash behavior of occupants with the Madymo multibody HBM; (iii) prediction of human behavior in a take-over scenario using the EMMA model