A hybrid model of system dynamics and genetic algorithm to increase crude palm oil production in Malaysia

Palm oil industry in Malaysia is facing a stagnant growth in terms of crude palm oil (CPO) production as compared to Indonesia due to three issues namely (i) the scarcity of plantation area, (ii) labour shortage, and (iii) the rising demand from palm-based biodiesel industry. Focusing on these issues, previous studies have been adopted various approaches. However, these non-hybridized methods have some shortcomings and can be improved by hybridization method. Hence, the objective of this research is to determine the optimal policy options to increase CPO production in Malaysia. In this research, a hybrid model of system dynamics (SD) and genetic algorithm (GA) was developed to determine the optimal policy in increasing the CPO production in Malaysia. Five policy variables namely mechanization adoption rate, average replanting, biodiesel mandates in transportation, industrial and 4 other relevant sectors were examined to determine optimal policy values. These five policy variables were tested in three scenarios: year 2017, year 2020, and in phases until 2050. From all the scenarios, the phase optimization emerged as the most effective in producing suitable policy variable values in order to obtain the best possible value of CPO production in year 2050 up to 20 GA population runs. The hybrid of SD-GA through phase optimization process is capable to recommend policies that are plausible to be implemented to avoid unwarranted shock to the industry. Furthermore, the hybrid model provides the ability of identifying the policy variables related to the objective function at any specific time line. From the managerial perspectives, this research helps the stakeholders in palm oil industry towards making a better future investment decision

Palm oil industry: A review of the literature on the modelling approaches and potential solution

Palm oil industry plays an important role as a backbone to the economy of a country, especially in many developing countries.Various issues related to the palm oil context have been studied rigorously by previous researchers using appropriate modeling approaches.Thus, the purpose of this paper is to present an overview of existing modeling approaches used by researchers in studying several issues in the palm oil industry.However, there are still limited numbers of researches that focus to determine the impact of strategy policies on palm oil studies. Furthermore, this paper introduces an improved system dynamics and genetic algorithm technique to facilitate the policy design process in palm oil industry.The proposed method is expected to become a framework for structured policy design process to assist the policy maker in evaluating and designing appropriate policies

Pathogen monitoring in indoor systems of tilapia aquaculture in Bafq, Iran

In recent years, aquatic diseases have damaged aquaculture industry in different areas of the world. Although tilapias are known as resistant fish against different pathogens, but there are some reports about infectious diseases of tilapia. Tilapia aquaculture in Iran is in the beginning stage. So, planning for hygiene observations and preventing of disease prevalence must be considered. Tilapia hatchery and indoor systems of National Research Center of Saline water Aquatics were monitored for infectious disease from October 2012 to February 2014. Unusual locomotion/feeding or uncommon signs in the shape or body surface of cultured tilapias, fries and eggs or exceed mortalities were mentioned for bacterial, fungal, parasitic or viral pathogens. Infectious agents in this study were bacteria Streptococcus and Edwardsiella, the fungi Penicillium and Aspergillus and parasitic monogeneans Gyrodactylus and Dactylogyrus. No viral agent was diagnosed. Although recorded pathogens were rarely observed during the study but much attention must be paid for hygiene monitoring and instruction performance

Study of Todebin dam reservoir in Zanjan province in order to aquaculture possibility

The Todebin dam reservoir has been constructed in central part of Abhar in the Zanjan province which has been studied with aquaculture purpose. This study was conducted on biotic and abiotic factors. The plankton, benthos and fishes were identified and the parasitology and bacteriology studies were performed on the lake fishes. Then the fisheries potential of the lake was calculated in respect of final fish farming amount and the fish releasing. The results showed the Bacillariophyta was dominated ِduring the study. the highest abundance of phytoplankton was between 2.1 and 12.5 million cells.l^-1 in the upper layer of lake as compared with the lower layer. The genus Cyclotella and Dinobryon belong to phytoplankton and Keratella and Polyathera belong to zooplankton were dominanted abundance. The mean biomass of benthos was varied from 5.5 to 29.5 g.m -2 and the Chironomidae had the most abundance. The ichtiology survey showed the presence of four cultured species and the Goldfish. The hydro-chemical results indicated no restriction for aquaculture activity. The oxygen average was more than 8 mg/l. The average of phosphate, nitrogen and hardness were measured 0.09±0.04, 2±0.8 and 237±94.5 mg/l., respectively. For the most hydrochemical factores, the values were significantly different between upper and bottom layers of the lake. The oxygen production and Chl-a amount were measured about 0.73 mg/l. and 7/03 µg/l., respectively. According to climatic restrictions, the cold fish culture is preferred than to culture of warm fishes. While the natural capacity of the lake was about 5 tones to warm fish culture, the fish production of trout was estimated about 40 tones. This volume will be available during four months periods and twice a year

A survey on health status of coldwater rearing and hatcheries fish farms in Iran (Mazandarn, Gilan, Ardebil, West Azerbaiejan, East Azerbaiejan and Kordestan provinces)

The national research plan with title of "Study on health status of Iran Coldwater hatchery and rearing farms" was done in order to identification and tracking of main causative agents of recent mortality in Iran Coldwater hatchery and rearing farms and recognize of infected zones and design of landscape distribution of Epizootic Coldwater fish diseases in the country. This plan was conducted parallel and in same time in some polar provinces of Coldwater fish production such as Mazandaran, Gilan, Ardebil, West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan and Kurdistan in three years from 2006-2008. In this regard, about 23,21 and 20 farms in Mazandaran province, 30 farms in West and East Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces and 19 farms in Gilan and Ardebil were selected as randomly and tracking were done yearly from 2006-2008. This research was conducted according to regular planning consists of farms visit that was done according to statistical plan and completion of Questionnaires and sampling. The findings in Mazandaran province revealed that fish infections background and infectious diseases were increased in period of 2006-2008. In fact, 56% of all fish farms in 2006, 71% in 2007 and 85% in 2008 were recorded as infected farms. In other side, average weight of fish final products was more 500gr in consume market. So, regarding to long period of fish culture in mentioned fish occurrence of more morbidity could be expected. The streptococcus infections were most important fish bacterial diseases that have more incidence and pathogenicity in collected questionnaires. Also it revealed more occurrences in summer season in above 15oC temperature in affected fish farms. Also, Enteric Redmouth Disease (ERM) and Saprolegniasis were reported as second and third degree in examined farms. Meanwhile, findings of control, prevention and treatment of our survey revealed that using of antibiotics and detergent materials were increased in mentioned province. Indeed, 34.7% of all fish farms in 2006, 71.4% in 2007 and 75% in 2008 have applied treatment operation and using of detergent materials in affected farms. In other side, frequent using of Erythromycin antibiotic was reported several times in 2008 so fish farmer faced to Bacterial resistance and should be using from Florfenicol as alternative antibacterial. Also, in feed sampling from all fish farms about 3 fish farms in 2006 and 5 fish farms in 2008 were faced with food poisoning that originated from high TVN and peroxidase in fish food consumed. These farms revealed mass mortality that stopped after change feeding regime. In conclusion absence of fish health management could be considered as main agent of mentioned mortality in Mazandaran province. The findings of our survey in West and East Azerbaijan and Kurdistan revealed that absence of sufficient experiences in fish farmers and their neglect from water quality concepts, farm cleanness, using of suitable detergent materials for fish ponds and instruments and disability in continuous monitoring of physic-chemical factors of consumed water could be considered as most important problems. So, fish morbidity and mortality, growth decrement and low production rate were expected. Unfortunately, despite the occurrence of infectious and non- infectious diseases in examined fish farms, there were no documents and information about diseases history, clinical signs in dead fish, feeding regime, fish mortality (rate of daily mortality, age and weight of moribund fish), treatment operation, drugs usage, growth rate, physico-chemical factors and fish density. So planning for control and prevention of mentioned diseases were unsuccessful in affected fish farms. Also, occurrence of some epizootic fish viral diseases such as VHS, IPN and IHN were observed frequently with mass mortality about 40100% in some examined fish farms that produced some tragic economic lost in the mentioned provinces. Similarly, some bacterial, fungal and parasitic diseases were observed repeatedly in some inspected farms such as Flavobacterium, streptococcus infections. Also, some unknown causative agents in parasitic diseases were observed several times such as Dactylogyrus, Gyrodactylus, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, Trichodina, Chilodonella, Diplostomum and fungal diseases such as Saprolegniasis. In conclusion it seems that absence of fish health management, inadequate rate of hygienic technical services, absence of quarantine programs for transfer of new eyed-eggs, juvenile and live broodstocks packages without health certificates from authorized organizations, uncontrolled entry of foreign eyed-eggs (France, Denmark, Australia and Armenia) and neglect in using of suitable detergent materials for fish ponds, instruments, consumed water and infected eggs, not screening of broodstocks in hatcheries could be considered as most important causative agents in occurrence of infectious diseases and main problems in affected farms in mentioned provinces. Similarly, our findings in Gilan and Ardebil provinces revealed that their problems were similar to other provinces. In fact, neglect in establish of necessary Infrastructures in fish farms and dereliction in health management concepts could be considered as main reasons of occurrence of fish infectious and non-infectious diseases in studied fish farms in mentioned provinces. In fact, often fish farms visited hadn't suitable structures without control and prevention approach. There were not observed detergent using, quarantine programs and prevention methods. Entrance of unknown persons, birds and wild animals were ordinary in mentioned farms. Unfortunately level of farmer’s knowledge was low and no training courses and extension programs were planned by authorized organizations. Meanwhile, food storages were unsuitable and food packages were stored in inappropriate situation so poisoning conditions were increased in examined farms. In conclusion it could be finalized that Coldwater fish farms in Gilan and Ardebil provinces situated in insufficient position and correction of current situation are needed urgently. In final elicitation, it would be mentioned that lack of basic infrastructures could be introduced as most important reasonfor spread of diseases, mortality and related economic losses in studied provinces. Therefore, attention to environmental affairs and access to Sustainable Development are recommended. Also consideration of biosecurity regulations and health management concepts would be important requirements for modification and reformation of Coldwater fish farms in examined provinces towards A Better Tomorrow

Towards improving oil palm fresh fruit bunches yield in Malaysia: a system dynamics approach

Malaysia is one of the largest producers and exporters of palm oil in the world market. However, it is difficult to retain Malaysia's status as one of the biggest palm oil producers in the world with the current stagnating fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield.The source of this problem may have come from the accumulation of ageing oil palm plantations which can be tackled through effective replanting plans. This study thus develops a system dynamics model of the oil palm plantation sector in Malaysia to understand its behaviour towards currently implemented policies.Several simulations have been performed to test various scenarios of policy interventions with the objective to reduce the accumulation of ageing area and subsequently increasing the FFB yield. The findings suggest that apart from improving the policies like promoting replanting and expanding the implementation of good agricultural practices, the most important thing is to have high commitment from planters, especially the independent smallholders, to participating in the replanting campaign

Palm oil supply and demand characteristics and behavior: a system dynamics approach

Like other commodities, palm oil is characterized by common commodity cycles in the market. However, in this study, we argue that the palm oil market has distinctive traits compared to other commodity markets with regard to the cobweb theorem by elaborating on the characteristics of the Malaysian palm oil market and its basic underlying behavior. In an attempt to understand the behavior of the industry, researchers had been changing the paradigm of modelling the palm oil market by using the operationally-based modelling approach (like system dynamics - SD-) rather than the observationally-based modelling approach (like econometrics). Thus, we propose a basic SD model of the palm oil market based on the Malaysian palm oil industry and tested its capability to replicate the real situation in the palm oil market. Five placeholder variables are included in the model to represent the exogenous factors influencing the key variables. Findings from the simulation-based run show that the palm oil market produces a fluctuating pattern of its key variables ceteris paribus, as suggested in cobweb theorem. For future works, further disaggregation of the key variables and exogenous factors is possible, thus adding model complexity in order to achieve specific objectives. This study contributes by setting up the fundamental structure of the market model for palm oil and other similar commodities

Implications of palm-based biodiesel blend mandate on the biodiesel industry growth in Malaysia: evidence from causal loop diagram

The government’s recent announcement to increase blend mandate of B10 for transportation sector and B7 for industrial sector is being welcomed by experts as a huge turning point for Malaysia palm-based biodiesel industry. However, concerns remain on the viability of the industry, especially during low crude oil price period. The main aim of this paper is to assess the impact of various blend mandates on Malaysia’s biodiesel industry based on cost-profit, environmental, and wide economic perspectives. This research employs the causal loop diagram of system dynamics method which explains how things change through time and how actions and reactions cause and influence each other. The findings indicate the government’s effort is rational and has a positive impact on the environment and economy but a negative impact from the cost-profit perspective. The study results allow policy makers such as MPOB to understand and to predict how various blend mandate might affect not only the biodiesel industry in the long term but also the cost-profit, environmental and other economic variables

Palm-Based Biodiesel Blend Mandate Increase on the Biodiesel Industry Growth in Malaysia: Evidence from Causal Loop Diagram

The government recent announcement to increase blend mandate of BIO for transportation sector and 87 for industrial sector has being deemed by expert as a huge turning point to Malaysia palm based biodiesel industry growth. However, this has attract several concerns on the viability of the industry especially during the low crude oil price period. To analyse this issue, the causal loop diagram of system dynamics method was built to explain the conceptual idea of developed model. The result found positive value from environmental and wide economic perspective despite negative value from cost-profit perspective. This study is important in changing current unfavourable perception towards government commitment in promoting the growth of biodiesel industry in Malaysia. Future works include thorough technical analysis using full stock and flow diagram as a continuum from this study

Impact of Various Palm-Based Biodiesel Blend Mandates on Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Stock and Price: A System Dynamics Approach

With an increasing concern over world population, energy security, volatile fuel prices and rising in greenhouse gas emissions, many countries are considering to a more friendly alternative fossil fuels. United States and also the European Union has already introduce of legislation mandating the use of biofuels in the energy mix. This action has stimulated the demand for vegetable oils. Malaysia is currently the largest palm oil exporter and the second largest producer after Indonesia has launched her palm-based biodiesel blending mandate of 5 percent (B5) in year 2011. However the mandate has not been implemented nationwide. Thus, this study, therefore seeks to contribute to our understanding of the impacts of various blend mandates specifically B5, blending mandate of 7 percent (B7) and blending mandate of 10 percent (B10) on the Malaysian crude palm oil market stock and price. A system dynamics model was developed for the Malaysian palm oil industry which provides a framework to understand the feedback structure and how changes in various blend mandates impact the behaviour of the crude palm oil stock and price. This research suggests that increasing the blending rate is not a favourable policy, although it managed to decrease the crude palm oil stock to the targeted level but it does not contribute to palm-based biodiesel industry production due to loss in terms of profitability because of high crude palm oil price