Dynamics of Attitudinal Dimensions of National Populism in Europe, 2008-2017

This article is dedicated to examining the changes in the political attitudes related to national populism in the European public opinion. The research hypothesis is that the “revival of nationalism” over the last years is due to the rise not in nationalist attitudes as such but in the strength of their intercorrelations with the political attitudes national populism is frequently attributed to – the growing disappointment with democratic ideal, its country-specific implementations, a country’s political system, and the government. The hypothesis is tested by means of a quantitative comparative analysis of the data of the two most recent waves of the European Values Study collected in 2008 and in 2017. The results show the relevance of these correlations by revealing the countries with national populist governments, contrary to other post-Socialist countries, to showcase increased positive correlations between national pride and satisfaction with a country’s political system and confidence in government. These findings support the notion that in Europe, national populism is largely due to the East-West divide not in ideals and aspirations, but in the relative success in their fulfillment

ZENONAS NORKUS, ON BALTIC SLOVENIA AND ADRIATIC LITHUANIA

Several years ago, the 20th anniversary of the fall of Communism prompted a considerable number of academic meetings and publication. By that time, most ex-communist states had already made their new identities clear and familiar to the world – or so it seemed. Transitology was slowly growing out of intellectual fashion, and the whole region affected by the post-communist transformation was more and more frequently regarded as stable and comparatively uninteresting. Amid this fading interest, conferences that aimed to re-examine of the post-communist transition were considered, even by the participants themselves, more of a ritual commemoration than a necessary attempt to solve pressing issues.

Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change

How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data

Evolution of Life Satisfaction and Evaluations of Living Conditions in Russia in 2006-2021

The paper is dedicated to the evolution of overall life satisfaction and evaluation of living conditions in Russia over the past two decades. The research hypothesis is that dynamics of life satisfaction and evaluation of the situation in specific spheres of life in Russia in this period had an inverted U shape. The hypothesis was tested by means of the data of the rounds 3 to 10 of the European Social Survey collected in 2006-2021. The results indicate the increase in life satisfaction and positive evaluations of living conditions between 2006 and 2014 followed by a subsequent decrease. Effects of sociodemographic characteristics demonstrated the opposite dynamics – decline in effect size and then a subsequent growth indicating higher agreement on more positive evaluations

Значение нации: тестирование модернистских теорий национализма

The aim of the research is empirical testing of the most prominent modernist theories of nationalism. These theories view nation-building and national identities as an outcome of transfer from traditional to modern societies and differ with regard to what spheres of modernity are considered the most relevant to nationalism. The study uses the integrated database of the third, fourth and fifth waves of the World Values Survey to test hypotheses derived from major modernist theories of nationalism. Results of country-level regression analysis show that nationalism is closer related to general value sets, such as tolerance of deviant behaviour than political attitudes. Regionally specific theories of nationalism are revealed to have the highest predictive power for a country average level of nationalism. Theories posing nationalism as challenged by local and cosmopolitan identities are rejected by empirical evidence of their positive interrelation. The results imply that contemporary nationalism is different from that of the early modernity reflected in modernist theories and suggests less strict choices and more hybridization of multiple identitiesЦель исследования – эмпирическое тестирование самых видных модернистстких теорий национализма. Эти теории рассматривают государствостроительство и национальное самосознание как результат перехода от традиционного к современному обществу и различаются в зависимости от того, какие сферы современности считают наиболее соответствующими национализму. Исследование использует интегрированную базу данных третьей, четвертой и пятой волн World Values Survey, чтобы протестировать гипотезы, полученные на основании основных модернистских теорий национализма. Результаты регрессионного анализа на уровне страны показывают, что национализм теснее связан с общими наборами значений, такими как терпимость к ненормативному поведению, чем политические отношения. Региональная специфика теорий национализма приведена для обретения высочайшей прогнозирующей силы среднего уровня национализма страны. Теории, позиционирующие национализм как вызов локальных и космополитических идентичностей, отклонены эмпирическим доказательством их положительной взаимосвязи. Результаты подразумевают, что современный национализм отличается от раннего, отраженного в модернистских теориях, и предлагает менее строгие варианты и большие гибридизации многократных идентичносте

[On Baltic Slovenia and Adriatic Lithuania]

Several years ago, the 20th anniversary of the fall of Communism prompted a considerable number of academic meetings and publication. By that time, most ex-communist states had already made their new identities clear and familiar to the world – or so it seemed. Transitology was slowly growing out of intellectual fashion, and the whole region affected by the post-communist transformation was more and more frequently regarded as stable and comparatively uninteresting. Amid this fading interest, conferences that aimed to re-examine of the post-communist transition were considered, even by the participants themselves, more of a ritual commemoration than a necessary attempt to solve pressing issues.

Posovietinis versus rytų nacionalizmas : implikacijos ir alternatyvos

One of the main issues of nationalism studies throughout its history has been the search for the justified position of the academic discourse on nationality with regards to the reality it attempts to rationally explain. Not only was it difficult to abandon the overtly ideological reasoning of the Fichtean kind, but it was and remains to be almost impossible to completely avoid implicit conformity to the public opinion dictated by an agenda formed by key relevant events. In the history of contemporary nationalism studies, one can see occasional rise of condemnation of nationalism prompted by atrocities like those committed in the ex-Yugoslavia or, adversely, cautious attempts of rehabilitation inspired by events like “velvet revolutions”, both lines of reasoning posed against the background of mild critical disapproval of nationalism as such. It seems obvious that for any social science its active distortion of and by the reality it studies is as ideological as tacit conformity to it. However, it remains unclear to what extent the objectivity, or constant self-reflection striving towards objectivity, is impaired in the case of neither distortion nor conformity, but mere confirmation of reality under scrutiny instead of constructing research subject following the immanent logic of the academic field. In this article we analyze a case of such confirmation and its implications regarding the two alternative ways of studying nationalism in a certain geographical part of the world.Kuo objektyvesnės, metodologiškai pateisinamos terminologijos vartojimas yra nuolatinis nacionalizmo studijų iššūkis. Straipsnyje analizuojamas ir lyginamas dviejų sąvokų – „posovietinis“ ir „rytietiškasis“ – euristinis potencialas empiriniuose nacionalizmo tyrimuose. Teigiama, jog pirmoji sąvoka – „posovietinis nacionalizmas“ – neturi aiškaus empirinio turinio, kadangi buvusios Sovietų Sąjungos respublikos vystėsi gana skirtingomis kryptimis, nacionalizmo aspektu jų nesieja pastebimi vertybiniai ir viešosios erdvės panašumai. „Rytų nacionalizmas“ akademiniame diskurse istoriškai įgavo ganėtinai neigiamą konotaciją, jam priskiriamas etninis pagrindas (kaip priešprieša pilietiniam „Vakarų“ nacionalizmui), primordializmo, iracionalumo atspalvis. Kaip galimos alternatyvios sąvokos nacionalizmui Rytų Europoje konceptualizuoti yra siūlomi subnacionalinis ir „europietiškasis“ nacionalizmai, pastarąja platesne sąvoka siekiant pabrėžti nacionalizmo fenomeno Rytų ir Vakarų Europoje panašumą

Ценность объяснения: эмпирическая проверка модернистских теорий национализма

The aim of the research is empirical testing of the most prominent modernist theories of nationalism. These theories view nation-building and national identities as an outcome of transfer from traditional to modern societies and differ with regard to what spheres of modernity are considered the most relevant to nationalism. The study uses the integrated database of the third, fourth and fifth waves of the World Values Survey to test hypotheses derived from major modernist theories of nationalism. Results of country-level regression analysis show that nationalism is closer related to general value sets, such as tolerance of deviant behaviour than political attitudes. Regionally specific theories of nationalism are revealed to have the highest predictive power for a country average level of nationalism. Theories posing nationalism as challenged by local and cosmopolitan identities are rejected by empirical evidence of their positive interrelation. The results imply that contemporary nationalism is different from that of the early modernity reflected in modernist theories and suggests less strict choices and more hybridization of multiple identitiesЦель исследования – эмпирическая проверка ключевых модернистских теорий национализма. Данные теории рассматривают нациестроительство и национальную идентичность как результат перехода от традиционных обществ к современным и предлагают различные версии того, какую из сфер модернити следует считать наиболее релевантной национализму. В исследовании используется интегрированная база данных третьей, четвертой и пятой волн Всемирного исследования ценностей для проверки гипотез, выдвинутых на основании модернистских теорий национализма. Результаты регрессионного анализа на страновом уровне указывают на то, что национализм сильнее связан с общими ценностями наподобие религиозности, чем с политическими убеждениями. Регионально специфические теории национализма демонстрируют наибольшую предсказательную силу для среднестранового уровня национализма. Теории, представляющие национализм как вытесняемый локальными и космополитическими идентичностями, не подтверждаются эмпирическими данными, которые свидетельствуют о положительной взаимосвязи этих типов идентичностей. Результаты исследования позволяют сделать вывод о том, что современный национализм отличается от национализма времен ранней модернити, отраженных в модернистских теориях национализма, поскольку предполагает меньше ситуаций жесткого выбора и больше возможностей для гибридизации и множественных идентичносте