Climate change adaptation and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in developing countries: a generalized framework and a feasibility study in Bangladesh

Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystems and therefore people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources. The concept of ‘vulnerability’ is not straightforward as there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability. In this study, we review the evolution of approaches to vulnerability assessment related to water resources. From the current practices, we identify research gaps, and approaches to overcome these gaps a generalized assessment framework is developed. A feasibility study is then presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB). The results of the feasibility study identify the current main constraints (e.g., lack of institutional coordination) and opportunities (e.g., adaptation) of LBRB. The results of this study can be helpful for innovative research and management initiatives and the described framework can be widely used as a guideline for the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, particularly in developing countries

Energy and land use in the Pamir-Alai Mountains

In a comparative study of energy resources and energy consumption patterns in the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the relations between energy consumption, land use, and livelihoods were investigated. An approach that presents energy flow through an ecosystem was developed, in particular to highlight ecosystem services and the scope of action for human interventions in the energy-land management nexus. Qualitative data were collected during a field study in October 2009 through household interviews and group discussions. Based on the relationship between energy supply and ecosystem services, typical village profiles depicting the flows of energy and financial assets are presented that illustrate the relation between energy resources, land use, and livelihood assets. The household interviews reflect situations in the different villages and allow a distinction to be made between the energy consumption patterns of poor and wealthier families. This case study in the Pamir-Alai Mountains emphasizes that a reappraisal of energy as a central focus within mountain ecosystems and their services to the population is necessary for both ecosystem preservation and poverty reduction

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented

Drivers of change and adaptation pathways of agricultural systems facing increased salinity intrusion in coastal areas of the Mekong and Red River deltas in Vietnam

Agricultural systems are increasingly considered complex adaptive systems. They are dependent on the integrated nature of biophysical and social sub-systems, continuously adapt to changing conditions and often display non-linear responses to various drivers of change at multiple scales. This research applied the lens of complex adaptive systems theory to analyze current and historical drivers of change and adaptation pathways of agricultural systems to increased salinity intrusion in coastal areas of the Red River and Mekong deltas in Vietnam since 1975. The analysis is based on 27 in-depth interviews with officials of local and national authorities as well as 198 semi-structured interviews and 11 focus group discussions conducted with farmers along three salinity transects in both deltas in 2015-2016. The results show that a dynamic interplay and feedback of various drivers of change such as policy intervention, farmers’ desire for profit maximization, changing salinity conditions, and technological development at different levels of the deltaic social-ecological system have shaped the changes and adaptations in agricultural systems over the last decades. In response to increased salinity intrusion, as exemplified by the historic salinity levels recorded in the Mekong Delta in 2015–2016, various adaptation options have been considered. These include adaptations that would lock-in agricultural production in particular systems or constrain changes in others, which is potentially problematic in light of the high uncertainty related to future changes. The study recognizes the need to apply both incremental and transformative changes and select adaptation pathways which allow for continuous change or that are reversible in order to avoid lock-ins and address future challenges. Additionally, attention should be drawn to interactions and feedbacks in future changes within and across adaptation pathways in order to prevent further increases in salinity intrusion and lock-in effects in agricultural systems within the deltas

Vulnerability and risk of deltaic social-ecological systems exposed to multiple hazards

Coastal river deltas are hotspots of global change impacts. Sustainable delta futures are increasingly threatened due to rising hazard exposure combined with high vulnerabilities of deltaic social-ecological systems. While the need for integrated multi-hazard approaches has been clearly articulated, studies on vulnerability and risk in deltas either focus on local case studies or single hazards and do not apply a social-ecological systems perspective. As a result, vulnerabilities and risks in areas with strong social and ecological coupling, such as coastal deltas, are not fully understood and the identification of risk reduction and adaptation strategies are often based on incomplete assumptions. To overcome these limitations, we propose an innovative modular indicator library-based approach for the assessment of multi-hazard risk of social-ecological systems across and within coastal deltas globally, and apply it to the Amazon, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM), and Mekong deltas. Results show that multi-hazard risk is highest in the GBM delta and lowest in the Amazon delta. The analysis reveals major differences between social and environmental vulnerability across the three deltas, notably in the Mekong and the GBM deltas where environmental vulnerability is significantly higher than social vulnerability. Hotspots and drivers of risk vary spatially, thus calling for spatially targeted risk reduction and adaptation strategies within the deltas. Ecosystems have been identified as both an important element at risk as well as an entry point for risk reduction and adaptation strategies

Barriers and tools for implementing nature-based solutions for rail climate change adaptation

Globally, the need for railways to adapt to the impacts of climate change is increasing rapidly. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have been identified as potential climate change adaptation (CCA) options for rail infrastructure; however, the limited number of examples of their application on railways highlights that many factors still need to be considered to enable their wider implementation. This study identifies barriers to NbS uptake by the rail industry through a systematic literature review, categorising them into seven key themes, whilst also considering potential tools to facilitate their uptake. The ongoing development of NbS standards and guidance is confirmed as a means to resolve the barriers likely to be faced. A framework to support the uptake of NbS in the rail industry is presented and discussed in the context of the existing literature, with climate change risk assessments being recognised as the entry point for CCA in rail infrastructure management

Advancing disaster risk reduction through the integration of science, design, and policy into eco-engineering and several global resource frames

By the later part of the 21st Century, our planet will be faced with compelling climatic circumstances requiring tradeoffs to maintain viable environmental conditions and standards of living. The prognosis for people near coastlines and waterways is particularly dire without decisive actions that capitalize on shared strengths such as ecosystems. One clear opportunity is the regenerative services and co-benefits of natural infrastructure that reduce the impacts of environmental disasters as magnified by climatic change. Certainly, nature-based solutions are increasingly being viewed as critical actions to reduce societal risk. However, to advance the use of natural infrastructure through eco-engineering, there is a need to clarify the science regarding risk reduction effectiveness, develop agreeable principles, standards, and designs, and grow a demonstration site network responsive to circumstances faced by communities around the globe. In addition, there is a need to consider the legal, policy, and regulatory obstacles and opportunities for natural infrastructure within local to national contexts (i.e., science-based building codes, architectural design criteria, incentive policies, etc.). Ultimately, the integration of science, designs, and policy coupled with installation within several globally recognized resource frames (IWRM, ICZM, etc.) will help establish eco-engineering standards. Supportive coastal, river, and urban examples from around the world are used to illustrate the current state of knowledge, model this integration of science, design, and policy, serve as initial “benchmark site”, and finally help define guiding principles for the emerging field of eco-engineering

Green, hybrid, or grey disaster risk reduction measures: what shapes public preferences for nature-based solutions?

Nature-based solutions (NbS) contrast with grey infrastructure measures to reduce risk from natural hazards. Using natural and sustainable measures (green) or combining green with grey elements (hybrid) can provide important co-benefits beyond risk reduction. Thanks to their co-benefits and flexibility across a range of possible climate change futures, NbS are sometimes referred to as 'win-win' or 'no-regret' measures. The success of NbS and associated projects often relies on the public for co-creation, co-implementation, and long-term sustainable use, monitoring, and management. However, the relative importance of NbS benefits is defined by the perceptions and underlying values of stakeholders with potentially divergent interests. It is unclear what measures at-risk individuals may prefer on the green-hybrid-grey spectrum and what shapes their preferences, including perceived benefits and potential regret. Identifying public (mis)perceptions, expectations, objectives, and what underlies these can inform communication and project framing, engagement, and ultimately increase public acceptance and continued uptake of NbS. We use citizen surveys at three distinct European sites where NbS are being planned and in-depth focus groups as a follow-up in the site at risk of landslides (Catterline, Scotland). Preferences and their drivers for measures on the green-hybrid-grey spectrum are assessed, focusing on public perceptions of NbS effectiveness, risk, and nature. We find that although wildlife habitat and aesthetics as co-benefits are important, reducing risk is of primary concern. Uncertainty in the strength and effectiveness of NbS, as one of 13 qualitative factors we identify, drives public preferences towards hybrid measures - seen as balancing green and grey trade-offs. Misperceptions and a demand for NbS information should be addressed with experiential learning, combined with transparent two-way communication of expectations. We urge caution and further research regarding emphasizing co-benefits and the 'natural' framing of NbS when risk reduction is the primary public objective

Advancing ecosystems and disaster risk reduction in policy, planning, implementation, and management

No abstract available