Climate change adaptation and vulnerability assessment of water resources systems in developing countries: a generalized framework and a feasibility study in Bangladesh

Water is the primary medium through which climate change influences the Earth’s ecosystems and therefore people’s livelihoods and wellbeing. Besides climatic change, current demographic trends, economic development and related land use changes have direct impact on increasing demand for freshwater resources. Taken together, the net effect of these supply and demand changes is affecting the vulnerability of water resources. The concept of ‘vulnerability’ is not straightforward as there is no universally accepted approach for assessing vulnerability. In this study, we review the evolution of approaches to vulnerability assessment related to water resources. From the current practices, we identify research gaps, and approaches to overcome these gaps a generalized assessment framework is developed. A feasibility study is then presented in the context of the Lower Brahmaputra River Basin (LBRB). The results of the feasibility study identify the current main constraints (e.g., lack of institutional coordination) and opportunities (e.g., adaptation) of LBRB. The results of this study can be helpful for innovative research and management initiatives and the described framework can be widely used as a guideline for the vulnerability assessment of water resources systems, particularly in developing countries

Shade and leaf retention: an aspect of effective Coffee Leaf Rust management

Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR) has been reported in over 50 coffee growing countries causing significant economic losses in Arabica coffee. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of shade on leaf life span in relation to severity of coffee leaf rust. To achieve this objective, three shade levels (shaded, partial shade, unshaded) were applied in three agro-ecological zones (AEZ) i.e. Upper-Midland (UM) I, II and III. Each treatment was replicated 4 times in 7 farms in each AEZ. All the farms had similar agronomic management levels. Infected leaves were counted per tree and disease severity was scored every month, between January and September, 2014 which is the peak period for CLR. Yields per plot were estimated using the method of Cilas and Descroix, 2004. The results showed that shaded trees retained the infected leaves 8 weeks longer than the unshaded in all the agro-ecological zones. Similarly, yield estimate from the shaded coffee (1521kg/ha clean coffee) was significantly higher than the unshaded (1050kg/ha clean coffee). Although leaves remain longer on shaded trees, allowing more time for the disease to develop and progress, severity level of shaded trees remains lower (12.8%) than unshaded (19.0%), suggesting the expression of regulation mechanism under the control of shade. Moreover, full shade generated by dense canopy, such as the one from mango or avocado tree best manages CLR across all the tested three agro-ecological zones

Sharing or gambling? On risk attitudes in social contexts

This paper investigates experimentally whether risk attitudes are stable across social contexts. In particular, it focuses on situations where some resource (for instance, a position, decision power, a bonus) has to be allocated between two parties: the decision maker can either opt for sharing the resource or for using a random device that allocates the entire prize to one of the two parties. By varying the relative situation of the decision maker with respect to the other party, we show that risk attitude is strongly affected by social contexts: participants in the experiment seem to be relatively risk seeking when they possess a relatively weaker position than the other party and risk averse when the opposite is true. Our main average results seem to be driven by the behavior of around a quarter of subjects whose choices appear to be fully determined by social comparisons. Various interpretations of the behavior are provided linking our results to preferences under risk with a social reference point and on status-seeking preferences

Energy and land use in the Pamir-Alai Mountains

In a comparative study of energy resources and energy consumption patterns in the Pamir-Alai Mountains of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the relations between energy consumption, land use, and livelihoods were investigated. An approach that presents energy flow through an ecosystem was developed, in particular to highlight ecosystem services and the scope of action for human interventions in the energy-land management nexus. Qualitative data were collected during a field study in October 2009 through household interviews and group discussions. Based on the relationship between energy supply and ecosystem services, typical village profiles depicting the flows of energy and financial assets are presented that illustrate the relation between energy resources, land use, and livelihood assets. The household interviews reflect situations in the different villages and allow a distinction to be made between the energy consumption patterns of poor and wealthier families. This case study in the Pamir-Alai Mountains emphasizes that a reappraisal of energy as a central focus within mountain ecosystems and their services to the population is necessary for both ecosystem preservation and poverty reduction

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented

Prosthetic bypass for restenosis after endarterectomy or stenting of the carotid artery

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the results of prosthetic carotid bypass (PCB) with polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) grafts as an alternative to carotid endarterectomy (CEA) in treatment of restenosis after CEA or carotid artery stenting (CAS). METHODS: From January 2000 to December 2014, 66 patients (57 men and 9 women; mean age, 71 years) presenting with recurrent carotid artery stenosis ≥70% (North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial [NASCET] criteria) were enrolled in a prospective study in three centers. The study was approved by an Institutional Review Board. Informed consent was obtained from all patients. During the same period, a total of 4321 CEAs were completed in the three centers. In these 66 patients, the primary treatment of the initial carotid artery stenosis was CEA in 57 patients (86%) and CAS in nine patients (14%). The median delay between primary and redo revascularization was 32 months. Carotid restenosis was symptomatic in 38 patients (58%) with transient ischemic attack (n = 20) or stroke (n = 18). In this series, all patients received statins; 28 patients (42%) received dual antiplatelet therapy, and 38 patients (58%) received single antiplatelet therapy. All PCBs were performed under general anesthesia. No shunt was used in this series. Nasal intubation to improve distal control of the internal carotid artery was performed in 33 patients (50%), including those with intrastent restenosis. A PTFE graft of 6 or 7 mm in diameter was used in 6 and 60 patients, respectively. Distal anastomosis was end to end in 22 patients and end to side with a clip distal to the atherosclerotic lesions in 44 patients. Completion angiography was performed in all cases. The patients were discharged under statin and antiplatelet treatment. After discharge, all of the patients underwent clinical and Doppler ultrasound follow-up every 6 months. Median length of follow-up was 5 years. RESULTS:No patient died, sustained a stroke, or presented with a cervical hematoma during the postoperative period. One transient facial nerve palsy and two transient recurrent nerve palsies occurred. Two late strokes in relation to two PCB occlusions occurred at 2 years and 4 years; no other graft stenosis or infection was observed. At 5 years, overall actuarial survival was 81% ± 7%, and the actuarial stroke-free rate was 93% ± 2%. There were no fatal strokes. CONCLUSIONS: PCB with PTFE grafts is a safe and durable alternative to CEA in patients with carotid restenosis after CEA or CAS in situations in which CEA is deemed either hazardous or inadvisable