Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [June 2011]

The recovery continues to be weak in both Scotland and the UK. Our view of the performance of the economy has been distorted by the effects of the bad weather on production in December last year. However, once an allowance is made for weather effects it still looks as if GDP growth was stagnant over the last 6 months to the first quarter 2011. There are mixed messages on whether stagnation is continuing or whether the recovery has resumed again. It seems likely that the economy is still continuing to recover but at a fairly weak rate. Almost three years after the start of the recession the Scottish economy has only recovered about a quarter of the output lost, while the UK economy has recovered a third of lost output. These data support the evidence-based view that recovery from financially sourced recessions, particularly banking crises, are slow and painful. Exports are recovering slowly and business investment is fairly static with firms sitting on large piles of cash but unwilling to invest due to the uncertainty. So, the evidence seems to be moving in favour of those advocating a "Plan B" for the UK authorities to take some action to stimulate demand, it needs to be understood that while buttressing demand might be a necessary condition for a more rapid recovery it is not sufficient. We must be sure that our banking system is fit for purpose, able to freely lend to support the needs of the economy. It is not clear that we have presently reached that point. It is to be hoped that the final recommendations of the Independent Commission on Banking meet this requirement and that the proposals are adopted by the government

Soroprevalência e fatores de risco para sífilis em população carcerária de Goiás

A cross-sectional survey was carried-out among 299 prisoners in the Penitentiary Center of Industrial Activity of Goiás (CEPAIGO), to determine the seroprevalence to T. pallidum and to identify risk factors associated to seropositivity. The seropositivity criterion was a positive VDRL test at any titer. A questionnaire was applied to evaluate the following'risk factors: time of imprisonment, clinical evidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STD), history of syphilis or others STD, homo/bisexuality and number of sexual partners. The positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values of the history of syphilis were calculated. Seroprevalence of 18,4% was found and no difference was detected in the different age groups. The PPV of history of syphilis was 26% indicating that 74% of the individuals who have reported syphilis in the past presented a negative VDRL test. Among all the risk factors studied, homo/bisexuality was the only one with statistically significant association with seropositivity (relative risks 5.7-95% CL1.2-26, p = 0.03). The paper discusses the methodological problems related with the investigation.Com o objetivo de dimensionar a prevalência da infecção pelo Treponema pallidum e determinar fatores de risco relacionados a soropositividade foram rastreados 299 presidiários no Centro Penitenciário de Atividades Industriais de Goiás (CEPAI-GO), 20 Km de Goiânia. O rastreamento sorológico foi realizado utilizando-se como critério de positividade, qualquer resultado sororeagente ao VDRL independentemente do título. Através de um questionário padronizado foram avaliados os seguintes fatores de risco: tempo de encarceramento, sinais e sintomas relativos às principais doenças sexualmente transmissíveis (DST), história de sífilis ou outras DST e práticas sexuais (homo/bissexualismo e número de parceiros). Foram calculados o valor preditivo positivo (VPP) e negativo (VPN) da história pregressa de sífilis obtida na anamnese. Uma soroprevalência global de 18,4% foi obtida, não havendo diferença entre as faixas etárias. O VPP do antecedente de sífilis foi de 26% significando que 74% dos indivíduos que referiram sífilis no passado não tiveram confirmação pelo VDRL. Entre os fatores de risco testados, a bissexualidade foi o único que apresentou associação estatisticamente significante com soropositividade (risco relativo 5,8 - LC 95% 1,2-16,0 p= 0,03). Foram discutidas as dificuldades metodológicas que poderiam ter influenciado nos resultados

Considerações metodológicas na interpretação do rastreamento sorológico da hepatite B em doadores de sangue

Between October 1988 and February 1989, 1,033 voluntary first-time blood donors were screened for hepatitis B infection in five blood banks in Goiânia, Central Brazil. The survey was part of a major study designed to estimate seroprevalence of HBsAg and anti-HBs and to discuss methodological issues related to prevalence estimation based on data from blood banks. Donors were interviewed and blood samples were collected and tested for HBsAg and anti-HBs by ELISA tests. Prevalences of 1.9% and 10.9% were obtained for HBsAg and anti-HBs, respectively, and no statistical difference was found between the sexes. Prevalence of anti-HBs increased with age (X² for trend = 7.9 p = 0.004). The positive predictive value and sensitivity of history of jaundice or hepatitis reported in the interview in detecting seropositives were 13.6% and 2.2%, respectively. The methodological issues, including internal and external validity of HBV prevalence estimated among blood donors are discussed. The potential usefulness of blood banks as a source of morbidity information for surveillance for Hepatitis B virus infection is stressed.Trata-se de parte de uma pesquisa sobre a soroprevalência e fatores de risco para as doenças infecciosas triadas pelos bancos de sangue, com o objetivo de discutir as implicações metodológicas na interpretação dos estudos seccionais realizados em bancos de sangue para estimativa da prevalência populacional para a infecção pelo Virus da Hepatite B (VHB). De outubro de 1988 a fevereiro de 1989, 1.033 primodoadores de sangue, de 5 dos 8 bancos de sangue da cidade de Goiânia - GO, Brasil, foram entrevistados. Uma amostra de sangue foi coletada para detecção dos marcadores sorológicos AgHBs e anti-HBs pela técnica de ELISA. Foram obtidas taxas de soroprevalência de 1,9% e 10,9% para AgHBs e anti-HBs, respectivamente. Não houve diferença estatisticamente significante na prevalência de AgHBs em diferentes grupos etários e sexo. Foi observado o aumento significante de anticorpos anti-HBs com a idade (X² para tendência = 7,9 p = 0, 004). O valor preditivo positivo e a sensibilidade da história de icterícia ou hepatite na anamnese em detectar soropositivos mostraram-se baixos, 13,6% e 2,2%, respectivamente. Foram discutidas a validade interna e externa e as limitações na extrapolação destas estimativas levando-se em consideração as características de distribuição etária e sexo da população, a "voluntariedade", um possível "efeito doador saudável" e a representatividade dos grupos de risco para infecção pelo VHB entre os doadores de sangue

Defining Research to Improve Health Systems

Robert Terry and colleagues present working definitions of operational research, implementation research, and health systems research within the context of research to strengthen health systems