Testing two types of monetary rules for Brazil

O objetivo desse artigo é verificar se trajetórias não inflacionárias para o PIB nominal no período 1974.I-1992.III teriam sido geradas se uma regra monetária tivesse sido adotada. Dois tipos de regras são consideradas. A primeira é uma regra ativa proposta por McCallum (1987,1988) e a segunda é uma regra não-ativa proposta por Meltzer (1987). Os resultados da simulação indicam que nenhuma das regras mostra um bom desempenho durante o período de análise.The purpose of this paper is to verify whether, if a monetary rule had been in effect, it would have resulted in smoother non-inflationary nominal GDPpaths over the period 1974.1-1992.111. Two types ofrules are considered. The first is an activist rule proposed by McCallum (1987, 1988), and the second is a non-activist rule proposed by Meltzer (1987). The results ofthe simulations indicate that neither ofthe two rules performed well during the period analyzed

Are error correction models the best alternative to assess capital mobility in developing countries?

Jansen (1996) e Jansen e Schulze (1996), baseados numa amostra de países desenvolvidos, argumentam que um modelo de correção de erros seria a especificação correta para estimar a correlação poupança-investimento. O objetivo deste artigo é verificar se o mesmo argumento pode ser feito usando-se uma amostra de países em desenvolvimento. Quando se trata de países em desenvolvimento, um modelo de correção de erros é, de fato, superior? Quão sério é o viés potencial das regressões em níveis e em primeiras diferenças relativamente ao modelo de correção de erros? Embora a teoria implique a existência de uma relação de longo prazo entre poupança e investimento, este não parece ser o caso para a maioria dos países em desenvolvimento. Então, a equação em diferenças não tem problema de especificação. Baseado nesta equação, encontra-se evidência de um grau intermediário de mobilidade de capitais em países em desenvolvimento, de acordo com o critério de Feldstein e Horioka.Jansen (1996) and Jansen and Schulze (1996), based on a sample of developed countries argue that an error correction model would be the correct specification to estimate saving-investment correlations. The purpose of this paper is to verify if the same claim can be made using a sample of developing countries. Regarding developing countries is an error correction model indeed superior, as suggested by Jansen and Jansen and Schulze? How serious is the potential bias from using regressions in levels and in first differences instead of an error correction model? Although the theory implies that there is a long-run relationship between saving and investment, this does not seem to be the case for the majority of the developing economies individually. Therefore, the equation in differences is not poorly specified. Based on this equation it seems to be an intermediate degree of capital mobility in developing countries according to the criterion of Feldstein and Horioka

Monetary reform credibility: some evidence for Brazil

This paper discusses the credibility of two disinflationary reforms adopted in Brazil, the Cruzado and Collor Plans. The source of the credibility problem is assumed to lie in the interaction between the monetary and fiscal authorities established by the governmentbudget constraint. Credibility is defined as the subjective probability that the government is following the announced policies. The results obtained indicate that both monetary reforms encouraged a policy for the monetary authority that would be appropriate for a Ricardian regime but advocated plans for taxes and expenditures thatcould only be feasible under a fiscal dominance regime. Such monetary and fiscal policies are, however, incompatible. It is not feasible to carry out both at the same time, and this explains the overall low credibility, and ultimate failure, of these two economic reforms.O objefivo desse artigo e discufir a credibilidade de duos reformas de combate a inflagao adotadas no Brasil: os Pianos Cruzado e Collor. Assume-se que a origem do problema de credibilidade vem da interagdo entre as auforidades monetdria e fiscal estabelecida pela resfrigdo orgamenfdria infertemporal. Credibilidade e definida comoa probabilidade subjetiva de que o governo esta seguindo as politicas por ele anunciadas. Os resultados obfidos indicam que ambas as reformas monetdrias encorajaram uma polJfica para a autoridade monetdria, que seria apropriada para um regime ricardiano, mas estabeleceram pianos de imposfos e gastos que seriam facfiveissomenfe num regime de domindncia fiscal. Tais politicas monetdria e fiscal sdo, contudo, incompatfveis. Ndo e factivel levar adiante ambas ao mesmo tempo e isso explica a baixa credibilidade global e, em ultima instdncia, o fracasso, das duos reformas economicas

Política Fiscal Através do Ciclo e Operação dos Estabilizadores Fiscais

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a relação entre ciclo econômico e finanças públicas no Brasil. Dado que no período recente o objetivo principal da política fiscal brasileira foi satisfazer a meta de superávit primário de 4,25% do PIB acordada com o Fundo Monetário Internacional procura-se avaliar, ainda, os impactos da adoção desta meta sobre a operação plena e efetiva dos estabilizadores automáticos. Encontra-se evidência de que não houve uma tentativa deliberada e sistemática por parte das autoridades fiscais de estabilizar a economia através do ciclo usando políticas discricionárias. A política fiscal, contudo, tornou-se menos pró-cíclica depois da adoção da Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal. Na média o comportamento fiscal tem sido consistente com um superávit de 4,25% do PIB desde 1999, usando-se uma regra fiscal de Taylor. A frequência de violações no limite do superávit diminui com o nível de superávit estrutural, sendo exigido um superávit estrutural elevado para manter o risco de um superávit menor do que a meta a um nível baixo.Política Fiscal, Ciclo Econômico, Estabilizares Automáticos, Meta Fiscal.

Curiosity, Frontal EEG Asymmetry, and Learning

Curiosity plays a critical role in our daily behaviors and interactions. Yet, very little is known about its psychological and neural underpinnings. By reframing curiosity as the motivation to obtain reward – where the reward is information –, and using frequency-based metrics of frontal brain lateralization, we aimed to investigate the neural correlates of curiosity in the frontal cortex and its effects on subsequent learning. Twenty-one undergraduate students participated in this two-day study by answering 35 general interest trivia questions, while EEG data was being recorded, also indicating their curiosity towards the question. One week later, participants were asked to write down the correct answers to each one of the questions. The results of this study suggested that frontal brain asymmetry (FBA) predicts memory recall, but is not directly correlated with self-reported curiosity. Study limitations and future directions are discussed

The Influences of the French Flute School on Brazilian Flute Pedagogy

In the second half of the twentieth century, flute teaching in Brazil improved considerably. The immigration of French flutists to Brazil and the exchange programs where Brazilian flutists went to study in France made a significant impact on the flute pedagogy in Brazil. This dissertation traces the influence of the French Flute School in Brazil by presenting the careers of the four most influential flutists living in Brazil today and how they can be traced back to the legendary flutist and teacher Paul Taffanel. Two of these flutists, Odette Ernest Dias and Jean-Nöel Saghaard, are French but moved to Brazil in the second part of the twentieth century to join the Brazilian Symphony Orchestra. They performed and taught in distinguished universities and festivals over several decades, perpetuating the teachings of the French Flute School. Furthermore, along with Dias and Saghaard, two Brazilian flutists are presented, Celso Woltzenloegel and Antonio Carrasqueira. Woltzenloegel and Carrasqueira both studied in France with important teachers of the French Flute School and subsequently returned to Brazil to teach at major universities and festivals. Moreover, this research defines the characteristics of the French Flute School and how its development was paralleled in Brazil prior to the influence of these four flutists. Additionally, a comparison between the first Brazilian flute method, Celso Woltzenloegel’s Método Ilustrado de Flauta, and the important French method, Taffanel-Gaubert’s Méthode Complète de Flûte, is presented as the fundamental evidence of the French influence on Brazilian flute pedagogy

Monetary and fiscal policies coordination underfederalism

The purpose ofthis paper is to show that, given its characteristics, the Brazilian federalism implies increasing debts at state level, undermining the central government ability to pursue macroeconomic stability. A simple model is developed to show that under certain conditions, decentralized policy making generates higher aggregate debt and inflation than under coordination at the federal government level. It is also shown that this aggregate debt is an increasing function of the degree of expected future monetization. In order to verify the solvency condition of state governments, a test that evaluates the generating process of the stock of states' debts is implemented. It was found that for the states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Rio Grande do Sul the time paths of the debts are unsustainable. Brazilian federalism does not enhance long run macroeconomic stability, and a major reform that promotes a wide and clear separation of monetary and fiscal policies is yet to come. Privatizing government financial institutions, limiting states' debts and deficits, and increasing the Central Bank s independence should altogether be considered important institutional changes to promote sound macroeconomic management in Brazil