Tools for delivering entomopathogenic fungi to malaria mosquitoes: effects of delivery surfaces on fungal efficacy and persistence.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Entomopathogenic fungi infection on malaria vectors increases daily mortality rates and thus represents a control measure that could be used in integrated programmes alongside insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Before entomopathogenic fungi can be integrated into control programmes, an effective delivery system must be developed.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud The efficacy of Metarhizium anisopliae ICIPE-30 and Beauveria bassiana I93-825 (IMI 391510) (2 × 10(10) conidia m(-2)) applied on mud panels (simulating walls of traditional Tanzanian houses), black cotton cloth and polyester netting was evaluated against adult Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. Mosquitoes were exposed to the treated surfaces 2, 14 and 28 d after conidia were applied. Survival of mosquitoes was monitored daily.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud All fungal treatments caused a significantly increased mortality in the exposed mosquitoes, descending with time since fungal application. Mosquitoes exposed to M. anisopliae conidia on mud panels had a greater daily risk of dying compared to those exposed to conidia on either netting or cotton cloth (p < 0.001). Mosquitoes exposed to B. bassiana conidia on mud panels or cotton cloth had similar daily risk of death (p = 0.14), and a higher risk than those exposed to treated polyester netting (p < 0.001). Residual activity of fungi declined over time; however, conidia remained pathogenic at 28 d post application, and were able to infect and kill 73 - 82% of mosquitoes within 14 d.\ud \ud CONCLUSION\ud \ud Both fungal isolates reduced mosquito survival on immediate exposure and up to 28 d after application. Conidia were more effective when applied on mud panels and cotton cloth compared with polyester netting. Cotton cloth and mud, therefore, represent potential substrates for delivering fungi to mosquitoes in the field

Statistical modeling of ground motion relations for seismic hazard analysis

We introduce a new approach for ground motion relations (GMR) in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), being influenced by the extreme value theory of mathematical statistics. Therein, we understand a GMR as a random function. We derive mathematically the principle of area-equivalence; wherein two alternative GMRs have an equivalent influence on the hazard if these GMRs have equivalent area functions. This includes local biases. An interpretation of the difference between these GMRs (an actual and a modeled one) as a random component leads to a general overestimation of residual variance and hazard. Beside this, we discuss important aspects of classical approaches and discover discrepancies with the state of the art of stochastics and statistics (model selection and significance, test of distribution assumptions, extreme value statistics). We criticize especially the assumption of logarithmic normally distributed residuals of maxima like the peak ground acceleration (PGA). The natural distribution of its individual random component (equivalent to exp(epsilon_0) of Joyner and Boore 1993) is the generalized extreme value. We show by numerical researches that the actual distribution can be hidden and a wrong distribution assumption can influence the PSHA negatively as the negligence of area equivalence does. Finally, we suggest an estimation concept for GMRs of PSHA with a regression-free variance estimation of the individual random component. We demonstrate the advantages of event-specific GMRs by analyzing data sets from the PEER strong motion database and estimate event-specific GMRs. Therein, the majority of the best models base on an anisotropic point source approach. The residual variance of logarithmized PGA is significantly smaller than in previous models. We validate the estimations for the event with the largest sample by empirical area functions. etc

Developments in Ground Motion Predictive Models and Accelerometric Data Archiving in the Broader European Region

This paper summarizes the evolution of major strong-motion databases and ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for shallow active crustal regions (SACRs) in Europe and surrounding regions. It concludes with some case studies to show the sensitivity of hazard results at different seismicity levels and exceedance rates for local (developed from country-specific databases) and global (based on databases of multiple countries) GMPEs of the same region. The case studies are enriched by considering other global GMPEs of SACRs that are recently developed in the USA. The hazard estimates computed from local and global GMPEs from the broader Europe as well as those obtained from global GMPEs developed in the US differ. These differences are generally significant and their variation depends on the annual exceedance rate and seismicity. Current efforts to improve the accelerometric data archives in the broader Europe as well as more refined GMPEs that will be developed from these databases would help the researchers to understand the above mentioned differences in seismic hazard

Empirical ground-motion models adapted to the intensity measure ASA 40

Relative average-spectral-acceleration (ASA40), a recently developed intensity measure, is defined as the average spectral pseudo-acceleration on the probable interval of evolution of the fundamental frequency of a structure. This article presents two ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) appropriate for the prediction of ASA40, using a pan-European strong motion database. Taking advantage of the strong correlation between the new intensity measure ASA40 and the spectral pseudo-acceleration (SA), existing GMPEs predicting SA can be adapted to predict ASA40. The first GMPE used in this study is the modified version of a new generation ground motion model, ASB13. In order to decrease the high aleatory uncertainty (sigma) that accompanies predictions when using this modified model, a new model is developed for the prediction of ASA40. Its range of applicability is for magnitudes Mw from 5.5 to 7.6 and distances out to 200 km, it includes site amplification and it is applicable for a range of periods between 0.01 and 4 s. The proposed model decreases the aleatory uncertainty by almost 15 % with respect to the uncertainty of the modified ground motion model