A generative model for predicting outcomes in college basketball

We show that a classical model for soccer can also provide competitive results in predicting basketball outcomes. We modify the classical model in two ways in order to capture both the specific behavior of each National collegiate athletic association (NCAA) conference and different strategies of teams and conferences. Through simulated bets on six online betting houses, we show that this extension leads to better predictive performance in terms of profit we make. We compare our estimates with the probabilities predicted by the winner of the recent Kaggle competition on the 2014 NCAA tournament, and conclude that our model tends to provide results that differ more from the implicit probabilities of the betting houses and, therefore, has the potential to provide higher benefits

Zero-error codes for the noisy-typewriter channel

In this paper, we propose nontrivial codes that achieve a non-zero zero-error rate for several odd-letter noisy-typewriter channels. Some of these codes (specifically, those which are defined for a number of letters of the channel of the form 2 n 1) achieve the best-known lower bound on the zero-error capacity. We build the codes using linear codes over rings, as we do not require the multiplicative inverse to build the codes. © 2011 IEEE

Prior design for dependent Dirichlet processes: An application to marathon modeling

This paper presents a novel application of Bayesian nonparametrics (BNP) for marathon data modeling. We make use of two well-known BNP priors, the single-p dependent Dirichlet process and the hierarchical Dirichlet process, in order to address two different problems. First, we study the impact of age, gender and environment on the runners' performance. We derive a fair grading method that allows direct comparison of runners regardless of their age and gender. Unlike current grading systems, our approach is based not only on top world records, but on the performances of all runners. The presented methodology for comparison of densities can be adopted in many other applications straightforwardly, providing an interesting perspective to build dependent Dirichlet processes. Second, we analyze the running patterns of the marathoners in time, obtaining information that can be valuable for training purposes. We also show that these running patterns can be used to predict finishing time given intermediate interval measurements. We apply our models to New York City, Boston and London marathons

Infinite factorial unbounded-state hidden Markov model

There are many scenarios in artificial intelligence, signal processing or medicine, in which a temporal sequence consists of several unknown overlapping independent causes, and we are interested in accurately recovering those canonical causes. Factorial hidden Markov models (FHMMs) present the versatility to provide a good fit to these scenarios. However, in some scenarios, the number of causes or the number of states of the FHMM cannot be known or limited a priori. In this paper, we propose an infinite factorial unbounded-state hidden Markov model (IFUHMM), in which the number of parallel hidden Markovmodels (HMMs) and states in each HMM are potentially unbounded. We rely on a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) prior over integer-valued matrices, in which the columns represent the Markov chains, the rows the time indexes, and the integers the state for each chain and time instant. First, we extend the existent infinite factorial binary-state HMM to allow for any number of states. Then, we modify this model to allow for an unbounded number of states and derive an MCMC-based inference algorithm that properly deals with the trade-off between the unbounded number of states and chains. We illustrate the performance of our proposed models in the power disaggregation problem

Sinfinite factorial unbounded hidden Markov model for blind multiuser channel estimation

Bayesian nonparametric models allow solving estimation and detection problems with an unbounded number of degrees of freedom. In multiuser multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems we might not know the number of active users and the channel they face, and assuming maximal scenarios (maximum number of transmitters and maximum channel length) might degrade the receiver performance. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric prior and its associated inference algorithm, which is able to detect an unbounded number of users with an unbounded channel length. This generative model provides the dispersive channel model for each user and a probabilistic estimate for each transmitted symbol in a fully blind manner, i.e., without the need of pilot (training) symbols. © 2014 IEEE

Bayesian nonparametric comorbidity analysis of psychiatric disorders

The analysis of comorbidity is an open and complex research Field in the branch of psychiatry, where clinical experience and several studies suggest that the relation among the psychiatric disorders may have etiological and treatment implications. In this paper, we are interested in applying latent feature modeling to Find the latent structure behind the psychiatric disorders that can help to examine and explain the relationships among them. To this end, we use the large amount of information collected in the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database and propose to model these data using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian BuFiet Process (IBP). Due to the discrete nature of the data, we First need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an eFicient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows integrating out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. We also provide a variational inference algorithm for this model, which provides a complementary (and less expensive in terms of computational complexity) alternative to the Gibbs sampler allowing us to deal with a larger number of data. Finally, we use the model to analyze comorbidity among the psychiatric disorders diagnosed by experts from the NESARC database. © 2014 Francisco J. R. Ruiz, Isabel Valera, Carlos Blanco and Fernando Perez-Cruz

Infinite factorial dynamical model

We propose the infinite factorial dynamic model (iFDM), a general Bayesian nonparametric model for source separation. Our model builds on the Markov Indian buffet process to consider a potentially unbounded number of hidden Markov chains (sources) that evolve independently according to some dynamics, in which the state space can be either discrete or continuous. For posterior inference, we develop an algorithm based on particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling that can be efficiently applied to a wide range of source separation problems. We evaluate the performance of our iFDM on four well-known applications: multitarget tracking, cocktail party, power disaggregation, and multiuser detection. Our experimental results show that our approach for source separation does not only outperform previous approaches, but it can also handle problems that were computationally intractable for existing approaches

A Bayesian nonparametric approach for blind multiuser channel estimation

In many modern multiuser communication systems, users are allowed to enter and leave the system at any given time. Thus, the number of active users is an unknown and time-varying parameter, and the performance of the system depends on how accurately this parameter is estimated over time. We address the problem of blind joint channel parameter and data estimation in a multiuser communication channel in which the number of transmitters is not known. For that purpose, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric model based on the Markov Indian buffet process and an inference algorithm that makes use of slice sampling and particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling. Our experimental results show that the proposed approach can effectively recover the data-generating process for a wide range of scenarios

Bayesian nonparametric modeling of suicide attempts

The National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) database contains a large amount of information, regarding the way of life, medical conditions, etc., of a representative sample of the U.S. population. In this paper, we are interested in seeking the hidden causes behind the suicide attempts, for which we propose to model the subjects using a nonparametric latent model based on the Indian Buffet Process (IBP). Due to the nature of the data, we need to adapt the observation model for discrete random variables. We propose a generative model in which the observations are drawn from a multinomial-logit distribution given the IBP matrix. The implementation of an efficient Gibbs sampler is accomplished using the Laplace approximation, which allows integrating out the weighting factors of the multinomial-logit likelihood model. Finally, the experiments over the NESARC database show that our model properly captures some of the hidden causes that model suicide attempts

Infinite continuous feature model for psychiatric comorbidity analysis

We aim at finding the comorbidity patterns of substance abuse, mood and personality disorders using the diagnoses from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions database. To this end, we propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model for categorical observations, based on the Indian buffet process, in which the latent variables can take values between 0 and 1. The proposed model has several interesting features for modeling psychiatric disorders. First, the latent features might be off,which allows distinguishing between the subjects who suffer a condition and those who do not. Second, the active latent features take positive values, which allows modeling the extent to which the patient has that condition. We also develop a new Markov chain Monte Carlo inference algorithm for our model that makes use of a nested expectation propagation procedure