An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit prediction model with independent validation

Background PREDICT is a breast cancer prognostic and treatment benefit model implemented online. The overall fit of the model has been good in multiple independent case series, but PREDICT has been shown to underestimate breast cancer specific mortality in women diagnosed under the age of 40. Another limitation is the use of discrete categories for tumour size and node status resulting in ‘step’ changes in risk estimates on moving between categories. We have refitted the PREDICT prognostic model using the original cohort of cases from East Anglia with updated survival time in order to take into account age at diagnosis and to smooth out the survival function for tumour size and node status. Methods Multivariable Cox regression models were used to fit separate models for ER negative and ER positive disease. Continuous variables were fitted using fractional polynomials and a smoothed baseline hazard was obtained by regressing the baseline cumulative hazard for each patients against time using fractional polynomials. The fit of the prognostic models were then tested in three independent data sets that had also been used to validate the original version of PREDICT. Results In the model fitting data, after adjusting for other prognostic variables, there is an increase in risk of breast cancer specific mortality in younger and older patients with ER positive disease, with a substantial increase in risk for women diagnosed before the age of 35. In ER negative disease the risk increases slightly with age. The association between breast cancer specific mortality and both tumour size and number of positive nodes was non-linear with a more marked increase in risk with increasing size and increasing number of nodes in ER positive disease. The overall calibration and discrimination of the new version of PREDICT (v2) was good and comparable to that of the previous version in both model development and validation data sets. However, the calibration of v2 improved over v1 in patients diagnosed under the age of 40. Conclusions The PREDICT v2 is an improved prognostication and treatment benefit model compared with v1. The online version should continue to aid clinical decision making in women with early breast cancer.The BCOS was funded by the Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI2007-3839). Funding for the POSH study was provided by Cancer Research UK (C1275/A9896, C1275/A11699, and C1275/A15956) and Breast Cancer Now (2005Nov63). PDPP is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Cambridge

Chemotherapy effectiveness in trial-underrepresented groups with early breast cancer:A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Adjuvant chemotherapy in early stage breast cancer has been shown to reduce mortality in a large meta-analysis of over 100 randomised trials. However, these trials largely excluded patients aged 70 years and over or with higher levels of comorbidity. There is therefore uncertainty about whether the effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy generalises to these groups, hindering patient and clinician decision-making. This study utilises administrative healthcare data-real world data (RWD)-and econometric methods for causal analysis to estimate treatment effectiveness in these trial-underrepresented groups. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Women with early breast cancer aged 70 years and over and those under 70 years with a high level of comorbidity were identified and their records extracted from Scottish Cancer Registry (2001-2015) data linked to other routine health records. A high level of comorbidity was defined as scoring 1 or more on the Charlson comorbidity index, being in the top decile of inpatient stays, and/or having 5 or more visits to specific outpatient clinics, all within the 5 years preceding breast cancer diagnosis. Propensity score matching (PSM) and instrumental variable (IV) analysis, previously identified as feasible and valid in this setting, were used in conjunction with Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios for death from breast cancer and death from all causes. The analysis adjusts for age, clinical prognostic factors, and socioeconomic deprivation; the IV method may also adjust for unmeasured confounding factors. Cohorts of 9,653 and 7,965 were identified for women aged 70 years and over and those with high comorbidity, respectively. In the ≥70/high comorbidity cohorts, median follow-up was 5.17/6.53 years and there were 1,935/740 deaths from breast cancer. For women aged 70 years and over, the PSM-estimated HR was 0.73 (95% CI 0.64-0.95), while for women with high comorbidity it was 0.67 (95% CI 0.51-0.86). This translates to a mean predicted benefit in terms of overall survival at 10 years of approximately3% (percentage points) and 4%, respectively. A limitation of this analysis is that use of observational data means uncertainty remains both from sampling uncertainty and from potential bias from residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study, as RWD, should be interpreted with caution and in the context of existing and emerging randomised data. The relative effectiveness of adjuvant chemotherapy in reducing mortality in patients with early stage breast cancer appears to be generalisable to the selected trial-underrepresented groups.</p

Profiling the immune landscape in mucinous ovarian carcinoma

Objective: Mucinous ovarian carcinoma (MOC) is a rare histotype of ovarian cancer, with low response rates to standard chemotherapy, and very poor survival for patients diagnosed at advanced stage. There is a limited understanding of the MOC immune landscape, and consequently whether immune checkpoint inhibitors could be considered for a subset of patients. Methods: We performed multicolor immunohistochemistry (IHC) and immunofluorescence (IF) on tissue microarrays in a cohort of 126 MOC patients. Cell densities were calculated in the epithelial and stromal components for tumor-associated macrophages (CD68+/PD-L1+, CD68+/PD-L1-), T cells (CD3+/CD8-, CD3+/CD8+), putative T-regulatory cells (Tregs, FOXP3+), B cells (CD20+/CD79A+), plasma cells (CD20-/CD79a+), and PD-L1+ and PD-1+ cells, and compared these values with clinical factors. Univariate and multivariable Cox Proportional Hazards assessed overall survival. Unsupervised k-means clustering identified patient subsets with common patterns of immune cell infiltration. Results: Mean densities of PD1+ cells, PD-L1- macrophages, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, and FOXP3+ Tregs were higher in the stroma compared to the epithelium. Tumors from advanced (Stage III/IV) MOC had greater epithelial infiltration of PD-L1- macrophages, and fewer PD-L1+ macrophages compared with Stage I/II cancers (p = 0.004 and p = 0.014 respectively). Patients with high epithelial density of FOXP3+ cells, CD8+/FOXP3+ cells, or PD-L1- macrophages, had poorer survival, and high epithelial CD79a + plasma cells conferred better survival, all upon univariate analysis only. Clustering showed that most MOC (86%) had an immune depleted (cold) phenotype, with only a small proportion (11/76,14%) considered immune inflamed (hot) based on T cell and PD-L1 infiltrates. Conclusion: In summary, MOCs are mostly immunogenically ‘cold’, suggesting they may have limited response to current immunotherapies

Copy number signatures and mutational processes in ovarian carcinoma.

The genomic complexity of profound copy number aberrations has prevented effective molecular stratification of ovarian cancers. Here, to decode this complexity, we derived copy number signatures from shallow whole-genome sequencing of 117 high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) cases, which were validated on 527 independent cases. We show that HGSOC comprises a continuum of genomes shaped by multiple mutational processes that result in known patterns of genomic aberration. Copy number signature exposures at diagnosis predict both overall survival and the probability of platinum-resistant relapse. Measurement of signature exposures provides a rational framework to choose combination treatments that target multiple mutational processes.NIHR, Ovarian Cancer Action, Cancer Research UK Cambridge Centre, Cambridge Experimental Cancer Medicine Centr

Harnessing citizen science through mobile phone technology to screen for immunohistochemical biomarkers in bladder cancer

Background: Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is often used in personalisation of cancer treatments. Analysis of large data sets to uncover predictive biomarkers by specialists can be enormously time-consuming. Here we investigated crowdsourcing as a means of reliably analysing immunostained cancer samples to discover biomarkers predictive of cancer survival. Methods: We crowdsourced the analysis of bladder cancer TMA core samples through the smartphone app ‘Reverse the Odds’. Scores from members of the public were pooled and compared to a gold standard set scored by appropriate specialists. We also used crowdsourced scores to assess associations with disease-specific survival. Results: Data were collected over 721 days, with 4,744,339 classifications performed. The average time per classification was approximately 15 s, with approximately 20,000 h total non-gaming time contributed. The correlation between crowdsourced and expert H-scores (staining intensity × proportion) varied from 0.65 to 0.92 across the markers tested, with six of 10 correlation coefficients at least 0.80. At least two markers (MRE11 and CK20) were significantly associated with survival in patients with bladder cancer, and a further three markers showed results warranting expert follow-up. Conclusions: Crowdsourcing through a smartphone app has the potential to accurately screen IHC data and greatly increase the speed of biomarker discovery

Patients’ views of treatment focused genetic testing (TFGT): some lessons for the mainstreaming of BRCA1 and BRCA2 testing

This paper explores patients' views and experiences of undergoing treatment-focused BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic testing (TFGT), either offered following triaging to clinical genetics (breast cancer) or as part of a mainstreamed care pathway in oncology (ovarian cancer). Drawing on 26 in-depth interviews with patients with breast or ovarian cancer who had undergone TFGT, this retrospective study examines patients' views of genetic testing at this point in their care pathway, focusing on issues, such as initial response to the offer of testing, motivations for undergoing testing, and views on care pathways. Patients were amenable to the incorporation of TFGT at an early stage in their cancer care irrespective of (any) prior anticipation of having a genetic test or family history. While patients were glad to have been offered TFGT as part of their care, some questioned the logic of the test's timing in relation to their cancer treatment. Crucially, patients appeared unable to disentangle the treatment role of TFGT from its preventative function for self and other family members, suggesting that some may undergo TFGT to obtain information for others rather than for self

Enhanced response rate to pegylated liposomal doxorubicin in high grade serous ovarian carcinomas harbouring BRCA1 and BRCA2 aberrations

Abstract Background Approximately 10–15% of ovarian carcinomas (OC) are attributed to inherited susceptibility, the majority of which are due to mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/2). These patients display superior clinical outcome, including enhanced sensitivity to platinum-based chemotherapy. Here, we seek to investigate whether BRCA1/2 status influences the response rate to single-agent pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD) in high grade serous (HGS) OC. Methods One hundred and forty-eight patients treated with single-agent PLD were identified retrospectively from the Edinburgh Ovarian Cancer Database. DNA was extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) archival tumour material and sequenced using the Ion Ampliseq BRCA1 and BRCA2 panel. A minimum variant allele frequency threshold was applied to correct for sequencing artefacts associated with formalin fixation. Results A superior response rate to PLD was observed in patients with HGS OC who harboured variants likely to affect BRCA1 or BRCA2 function compared to the BRCA1/2 wild-type population (36%, 9 of 25 patients versus 12.1%, 7 of 58 patients; p = 0.016). An enhanced response rate was also seen in patients harbouring only the BRCA1 SNP rs1799950, predicted to be detrimental to BRCA1 function (50%, 3 of 6 patients versus 12.1%, 7 of 58 patients; p = 0.044). Conclusions These data demonstrate that HGS OC patients with BRCA1/2 variants predicted damaging to protein function experience superior sensitivity to PLD, consistent with impaired DNA repair. Further characterisation of rs1799950 is now warranted in relation to chemosensitivity and susceptibility to developing ovarian carcinoma

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. INTERPRETATION: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust

Synchronous Breast Cancer: Phenotypic Similarities on MRI

Background: Previous studies have shown discrepancies between index and synchronous breast cancer in histology and molecular phenotype. It is yet unknown whether this observation also applies to the MRI phenotype. Purpose: To investigate whether the appearance of breast cancer on MRI (i.e. phenotype) is different from that of additional breast cancer (i.e. synchronous cancer), and whether such a difference, if it exists, is associated with prognosis. Study Type: Retrospective. Population: In all, 464 consecutive patients with early-stage ER+/HER2– breast cancer were included; 34/464 (7.3%) had 44 synchronous cancers in total (34 ipsilateral, 10 contralateral). Sequence: 1.5T, contrast-enhanced T 1-weighted. Assessment: We assessed imaging phenotype using 50 quantitative features from each cancer and applied principal component analysis (PCA) to identify independent properties. The degree of phenotype difference was assessed. An association between phenotype differences and prognosis in terms of the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and PREDICT score were analyzed. Statistical Tests: PCA; Wilcoxon rank sum test; Benjamini–Hochberg to control the false discovery rate. Results: PCA identified eight components in patients with ipsilateral synchronous cancer. Six out of eight were significantly different between index and synchronous cancer. These components represented features describing texture (three components, P < 0.001, P < 0.001, P = 0.004), size (P < 0.001), smoothness (P < 0.001), and kinetics (P = 0.004). Phenotype differences in terms of the six components were split in tertiles. Larger phenotype differences in size, kinetics, and texture were associated with significantly worse prognosis in terms of NPI (P = 0.019, P = 0.045, P = 0.014), but not for the PREDICT score (P = 0.109, P = 0.479, P = 0.109). PCA identified six components in patients with contralateral synchronous cancer. None were significantly different from the index cancer (P = 0.178, P = 0.178, P = 0.178, P = 0.326, P = 0.739, P = 0.423). Data Conclusion: The MRI phenotype of ER+/HER2– breast cancer was different from that of ipsilateral synchronous cancer and a large phenotype difference was associated with worse prognosis. No significant difference was found for synchronous contralateral cancer. Level of Evidence: 3. Technical Efficacy: Stage 4. J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2020;51:1858–1867

Germline mutation in BRCA1 or MRCA2 and ten-year survival for women diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer

Purpose:To analyse the effect of germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 on mortality in ovarian cancer patients up to ten years after diagnosis. Experimental Design:We used unpublished survival time data for 2,242 patients from two case-control studies and extended survival-time data for 4,314 patients from previously reported studies. All participants had been screened for deleterious germline mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2. Survival time was analysed for the combined data using Cox proportional hazard models with BRCA1 and BRCA2 as time-varying covariates. Competing risks were analysed using Fine and Gray model. Results: The combined 10-year overall survival was 30% (95% CI, 28%-31%) for non-carriers, 25% (95% CI, 22%-28%) for BRCA1 carriers, and 35% (95% CI, 30%-41%) for BRCA2 carriers. The hazard ratio for BRCA1 was 0.53 at time zero and increased over time becoming greater than one at 4.8 years. For BRCA2, the hazard ratio was 0.42 at time zero and increased over time (predicted to become greater than one at 10.5 years). The results were similar when restricted to 3,202 patients with high-grade serous tumors, and to ovarian cancer specific mortality. Conclusions: BRCA1/2 mutations are associated with better short-term survival, but this advantage decreases over time and, in BRCA1 carriers is eventually reversed. This may have important implications for therapy of both primary and relapsed disease and for analysis of long-term survival in clinical trials of new agents, particularly those that are effective in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers