Comparison of techniques for handling missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies: a simulation study

Background: There is no consensus on the most appropriate approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies. Therefore a simulation study was performed to assess the effects of different missing data techniques on the performance of a prognostic model. Methods: Datasets were generated to resemble the skewed distributions seen in a motivating breast cancer example. Multivariate missing data were imposed on four covariates using four different mechanisms; missing completely at random (MCAR), missing at random (MAR), missing not at random (MNAR) and a combination of all three mechanisms. Five amounts of incomplete cases from 5% to 75% were considered. Complete case analysis (CC), single imputation (SI) and five multiple imputation (MI) techniques available within the R statistical software were investigated: a) data augmentation (DA) approach assuming a multivariate normal distribution, b) DA assuming a general location model, c) regression switching imputation, d) regression switching with predictive mean matching (MICE-PMM) and e) flexible additive imputation models. A Cox proportional hazards model was fitted and appropriate estimates for the regression coefficients and model performance measures were obtained. Results: Performing a CC analysis produced unbiased regression estimates, but inflated standard errors, which affected the significance of the covariates in the model with 25% or more missingness. Using SI, underestimated the variability; resulting in poor coverage even with 10% missingness. Of the MI approaches, applying MICE-PMM produced, in general, the least biased estimates and better coverage for the incomplete covariates and better model performance for all mechanisms. However, this MI approach still produced biased regression coefficient estimates for the incomplete skewed continuous covariates when 50% or more cases had missing data imposed with a MCAR, MAR or combined mechanism. When the missingness depended on the incomplete covariates, i.e. MNAR, estimates were biased with more than 10% incomplete cases for all MI approaches. Conclusion: The results from this simulation study suggest that performing MICE-PMM may be the preferred MI approach provided that less than 50% of the cases have missing data and the missing data are not MNAR

Developing and implementing an integrated delirium prevention system of care:a theory driven, participatory research study

Background: Delirium is a common complication for older people in hospital. Evidence suggests that delirium incidence in hospital may be reduced by about a third through a multi-component intervention targeted at known modifiable risk factors. We describe the research design and conceptual framework underpinning it that informed the development of a novel delirium prevention system of care for acute hospital wards. Particular focus of the study was on developing an implementation process aimed at embedding practice change within routine care delivery. Methods: We adopted a participatory action research approach involving staff, volunteers, and patient and carer representatives in three northern NHS Trusts in England. We employed Normalization Process Theory to explore knowledge and ward practices on delirium and delirium prevention. We established a Development Team in each Trust comprising senior and frontline staff from selected wards, and others with a potential role or interest in delirium prevention. Data collection included facilitated workshops, relevant documents/records, qualitative one-to-one interviews and focus groups with multiple stakeholders and observation of ward practices. We used grounded theory strategies in analysing and synthesising data. Results: Awareness of delirium was variable among staff with no attention on delirium prevention at any level; delirium prevention was typically neither understood nor perceived as meaningful. The busy, chaotic and challenging ward life rhythm focused primarily on diagnostics, clinical observations and treatment. Ward practices pertinent to delirium prevention were undertaken inconsistently. Staff welcomed the possibility of volunteers being engaged in delirium prevention work, but existing systems for volunteer support were viewed as a barrier. Our evolving conception of an integrated model of delirium prevention presented major implementation challenges flowing from minimal understanding of delirium prevention and securing engagement of volunteers alongside practice change. The resulting Prevention of Delirium (POD) Programme combines a multi-component delirium prevention and implementation process, incorporating systems and mechanisms to introduce and embed delirium prevention into routine ward practices. Conclusions: Although our substantive interest was in delirium prevention, the conceptual and methodological strategies pursued have implications for implementing and sustaining practice and service improvements more broadly

Selective attrition and bias in a longitudinal health survey among survivors of a disaster

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the response mechanisms among survivors of disasters. We studied the selective attrition and possible bias in a longitudinal study among survivors of a fireworks disaster. METHODS: Survivors completed a questionnaire three weeks (wave 1), 18 months (wave 2) and four years post-disaster (wave 3). Demographic characteristics, disaster-related factors and health problems at wave 1 were compared between respondents and non-respondents at the follow-up surveys. Possible bias as a result of selective response was examined by comparing prevalence estimates resulting from multiple imputation and from complete case analysis. Analysis were stratified according to ethnic background (native Dutch and immigrant survivors). RESULTS: Among both native Dutch and immigrant survivors, female survivors and survivors in the age categories 25–44 and 45–64 years old were more likely to respond to the follow-up surveys. In general, disasters exposure did not differ between respondents and non-respondents at follow-up. Response at follow-up differed between native Dutch and non-western immigrant survivors. For example, native Dutch who responded only to wave 1 reported more depressive feelings at wave 1 (59.7%; 95% CI 51.2–68.2) than Dutch survivors who responded to all three waves (45.4%; 95% CI 41.6–49.2, p < 0.05). Immigrants who responded only to wave 1 had fewer health problems three weeks post-disaster such as depressive feelings (M = 69.3%; 95% CI 60.9–77.6) and intrusions and avoidance reactions (82.7%; 95% CI 75.8–89.5) than immigrants who responded to all three waves (respectively 89.9%; 95% CI 83.4–96.9 and 96.3%; 95% CI 92.3–100, p < .01). Among Dutch survivors, the imputed prevalence estimates of wave 3 health problems tended to be higher than the complete case estimates. The imputed prevalence estimates of wave 3 health problems among immigrants were either unaffected or somewhat lower than the complete case estimates. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that despite selective response, the complete case prevalence estimates were only somewhat biased. Future studies, both among survivors of disasters and among the general population, should not only examine selective response, but should also investigate whether selective response has biased the complete case prevalence estimates of health problems by using statistical techniques such as multiple imputation

Perspective from a Younger Generation -- The Astro-Spectroscopy of Gisbert Winnewisser

Gisbert Winnewisser's astronomical career was practically coextensive with the whole development of molecular radio astronomy. Here I would like to pick out a few of his many contributions, which I, personally, find particularly interesting and put them in the context of newer results.Comment: 14 pages. (Co)authored by members of the MPIfR (Sub)millimeter Astronomy Group. To appear in the Proceedings of the 4th Cologne-Bonn-Zermatt-Symposium "The Dense Interstellar Medium in Galaxies" eds. S. Pfalzner, C. Kramer, C. Straubmeier, & A. Heithausen (Springer: Berlin

Intermediate care at a community hospital as an alternative to prolonged general hospital care for elderly patients: a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Demographic changes together with an increasing demand among older people for hospital beds and other health services make allocation of resources to the most efficient care level a vital issue. The aim of this trial was to study the efficacy of intermediate care at a community hospital compared to standard prolonged care at a general hospital.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a randomised controlled trial 142 patients aged 60 or more admitted to a general hospital due to acute illness or exacerbation of a chronic disease 72 (intervention group) were randomised to intermediate care at a community hospital and 70 (general hospital group) to further general hospital care.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In the intervention group 14 patients (19.4%) were readmitted for the same disease compared to 25 patients (35.7%) in the general hospital group (p = 0.03). After 26 weeks 18 (25.0%) patients in the intervention group were independent of community care compared to seven (10.0%) in the general hospital group (p = 0.02). There were an insignificant reduction in the number of deaths and an insignificant increase in the number of days with inward care in the intervention group. The number of patients admitted to long-term nursing homes from the intervention group was insignificantly higher than from the general hospital group.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Intermediate care at a community hospital significantly decreased the number of readmissions for the same disease to general hospital, and a significantly higher number of patients were independent of community care after 26 weeks of follow-up, without any increase in mortality and number of days in institutions.</p

AMPK α1 Activation Is Required for Stimulation of Glucose Uptake by Twitch Contraction, but Not by H2O2, in Mouse Skeletal Muscle

BACKGROUND: AMPK is a promising pharmacological target in relation to metabolic disorders partly due to its non-insulin dependent glucose uptake promoting role in skeletal muscle. Of the 2 catalytic alpha-AMPK isoforms, alpha(2) AMPK is clearly required for stimulation of glucose transport into muscle by certain stimuli. In contrast, no clear function has yet been determined for alpha(1) AMPK in skeletal muscle, possibly due to alpha-AMPK isoform signaling redundancy. By applying low-intensity twitch-contraction and H(2)O(2) stimulation to activate alpha(1) AMPK, but not alpha(2) AMPK, in wildtype and alpha-AMPK transgenic mouse muscles, this study aimed to define conditions where alpha(1) AMPK is required to increase muscle glucose uptake. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Following stimulation with H(2)O(2) (3 mM, 20 min) or twitch-contraction (0.1 ms pulse, 2 Hz, 2 min), signaling and 2-deoxyglucose uptake were measured in incubated soleus muscles from wildtype and muscle-specific kinase-dead AMPK (KD), alpha(1) AMPK knockout or alpha(2) AMPK knockout mice. H(2)O(2) increased the activity of both alpha(1) and alpha(2) AMPK in addition to Akt phosphorylation, and H(2)O(2)-stimulated glucose uptake was not reduced in any of the AMPK transgenic mouse models compared with wild type. In contrast, twitch-contraction increased the activity of alpha(1) AMPK, but not alpha(2) AMPK activity nor Akt or AS160 phosphorylation. Glucose uptake was markedly lower in alpha(1) AMPK knockout and KD AMPK muscles, but not in alpha(2) AMPK knockout muscles, following twitch stimulation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results provide strong genetic evidence that alpha(1) AMPK, but not alpha(2) AMPK, Akt or AS160, is necessary for regulation of twitch-contraction stimulated glucose uptake. To our knowledge, this is the first report to show a major and essential role of alpha(1) AMPK in regulating a physiological endpoint in skeletal muscle. In contrast, AMPK is not essential for H(2)O(2)-stimulated muscle glucose uptake, as proposed by recent studies

Crystal Structure of a Charge Engineered Human Lysozyme Having Enhanced Bactericidal Activity

Human lysozyme is a key component of the innate immune system, and recombinant forms of the enzyme represent promising leads in the search for therapeutic agents able to treat drug-resistant infections. The wild type protein, however, fails to participate effectively in clearance of certain infections due to inherent functional limitations. For example, wild type lysozymes are subject to electrostatic sequestration and inactivation by anionic biopolymers in the infected airway. A charge engineered variant of human lysozyme has recently been shown to possess improved antibacterial activity in the presence of disease associated inhibitory molecules. Here, the 2.04 Å crystal structure of this variant is presented along with an analysis that provides molecular level insights into the origins of the protein's enhanced performance. The charge engineered variant's two mutated amino acids exhibit stabilizing interactions with adjacent native residues, and from a global perspective, the mutations cause no gross structural perturbations or loss of stability. Importantly, the two substitutions dramatically expand the negative electrostatic potential that, in the wild type enzyme, is restricted to a small region near the catalytic residues. The net result is a reduction in the overall strength of the engineered enzyme's electrostatic potential field, and it appears that the specific nature of this remodeled field underlies the variant's reduced susceptibility to inhibition by anionic biopolymers

Canine and human gastrointestinal stromal tumors display similar mutations in c-KIT exon 11

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) are common mesenchymal neoplasms in the gastrointestinal tract of humans and dogs. Little is known about the pathogenesis of these tumors. This study evaluated the role of <it>c-KIT </it>in canine GISTs; specifically, we investigated activating mutations in exons 8, 9, 11, 13, and 17 of <it>c-KIT </it>and exons 12, 14, and 18 of platelet-derived growth factor receptor, alpha polypeptide (<it>PDGFRA</it>), all of which have been implicated in human GISTs.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Seventeen canine GISTs all confirmed to be positive for KIT immunostaining were studied. Exons 8, 9, 11, 13 and 17 of <it>c-KIT </it>and exons 12, 14, and 18 of <it>PDGFRA</it>, were amplified from DNA isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of these seventeen cases, six amplicons of exon 11 of <it>c-KIT </it>showed aberrant bands on gel electrophoresis. Sequencing of these amplicons revealed heterozygous in-frame deletions in six cases. The mutations include two different but overlapping six base pair deletions. Exons 8, 9, 13, and 17 of <it>c-KIT </it>and exons 12, 14, and 18 of <it>PDGFRA </it>had no abnormalities detected by electrophoresis and sequencing did not reveal any mutations, other than synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) found in exon 11 of <it>c-KIT </it>and exons 12 and 14 of <it>PDGFRA</it>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The deletion mutations detected in canine GISTs are similar to those previously found in the juxtamembrane domain of <it>c-KIT </it>in canine cutaneous mast cell tumors in our laboratory as well as to those reported in human GISTs. Interestingly, none of the other <it>c-KIT </it>or <it>PDGFRA </it>exons showed any abnormalities in our cases. This finding underlines the critical importance of <it>c-KIT </it>in the pathophysiology of canine GISTs. The expression of KIT and the identification of these activating mutations in <it>c-KIT </it>implicate KIT in the pathogenesis of these tumors. Our results indicate that mutations in <it>c-KIT </it>may be of prognostic significance and that targeting KIT may be a rational approach to treatment of these malignant tumors. This study further demonstrates that spontaneously occurring canine GISTs share molecular features with human GISTs and are an appropriate model for human GISTs.</p

A review of elliptical and disc galaxy structure, and modern scaling laws

A century ago, in 1911 and 1913, Plummer and then Reynolds introduced their models to describe the radial distribution of stars in `nebulae'. This article reviews the progress since then, providing both an historical perspective and a contemporary review of the stellar structure of bulges, discs and elliptical galaxies. The quantification of galaxy nuclei, such as central mass deficits and excess nuclear light, plus the structure of dark matter halos and cD galaxy envelopes, are discussed. Issues pertaining to spiral galaxies including dust, bulge-to-disc ratios, bulgeless galaxies, bars and the identification of pseudobulges are also reviewed. An array of modern scaling relations involving sizes, luminosities, surface brightnesses and stellar concentrations are presented, many of which are shown to be curved. These 'redshift zero' relations not only quantify the behavior and nature of galaxies in the Universe today, but are the modern benchmark for evolutionary studies of galaxies, whether based on observations, N-body-simulations or semi-analytical modelling. For example, it is shown that some of the recently discovered compact elliptical galaxies at 1.5 < z < 2.5 may be the bulges of modern disc galaxies.Comment: Condensed version (due to Contract) of an invited review article to appear in "Planets, Stars and Stellar Systems"(www.springer.com/astronomy/book/978-90-481-8818-5). 500+ references incl. many somewhat forgotten, pioneer papers. Original submission to Springer: 07-June-201