Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Disparities and risks of sexually transmissible infections among men who have sex with men in China: a meta-analysis and data synthesis.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Hepatitis B and C virus, are emerging public health risks in China, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aims to assess the magnitude and risks of STIs among Chinese MSM. METHODS: Chinese and English peer-reviewed articles were searched in five electronic databases from January 2000 to February 2013. Pooled prevalence estimates for each STI infection were calculated using meta-analysis. Infection risks of STIs in MSM, HIV-positive MSM and male sex workers (MSW) were obtained. This review followed the PRISMA guidelines and was registered in PROSPERO. RESULTS: Eighty-eight articles (11 in English and 77 in Chinese) investigating 35,203 MSM in 28 provinces were included in this review. The prevalence levels of STIs among MSM were 6.3% (95% CI: 3.5-11.0%) for chlamydia, 1.5% (0.7-2.9%) for genital wart, 1.9% (1.3-2.7%) for gonorrhoea, 8.9% (7.8-10.2%) for hepatitis B (HBV), 1.2% (1.0-1.6%) for hepatitis C (HCV), 66.3% (57.4-74.1%) for human papillomavirus (HPV), 10.6% (6.2-17.6%) for herpes simplex virus (HSV-2) and 4.3% (3.2-5.8%) for Ureaplasma urealyticum. HIV-positive MSM have consistently higher odds of all these infections than the broader MSM population. As a subgroup of MSM, MSW were 2.5 (1.4-4.7), 5.7 (2.7-12.3), and 2.2 (1.4-3.7) times more likely to be infected with chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HCV than the broader MSM population, respectively. CONCLUSION: Prevalence levels of STIs among MSW were significantly higher than the broader MSM population. Co-infection of HIV and STIs were prevalent among Chinese MSM. Integration of HIV and STIs healthcare and surveillance systems is essential in providing effective HIV/STIs preventive measures and treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO NO: CRD42013003721

More than Mere Numbers: The Impact of Lethal Control on the Social Stability of a Top-Order Predator

Population control of socially complex species may have profound ecological implications that remain largely invisible if only their abundance is considered. Here we discuss the effects of control on a socially complex top-order predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). Since European occupation of Australia, dingoes have been controlled over much of the continent. Our aim was to investigate the effects of control on their abundance and social stability. We hypothesized that dingo abundance and social stability are not linearly related, and proposed a theoretical model in which dingo populations may fluctuate between three main states: (A) below carrying capacity and socially fractured, (B) above carrying capacity and socially fractured, or (C) at carrying capacity and socially stable. We predicted that lethal control would drive dingoes into the unstable states A or B, and that relaxation of control would allow recovery towards C. We tested our predictions by surveying relative abundance (track density) and indicators of social stability (scent-marking and howling) at seven sites in the arid zone subject to differing degrees of control. We also monitored changes in dingo abundance and social stability following relaxation and intensification of control. Sites where dingoes had been controlled within the previous two years were characterized by low scent-marking activity, but abundance was similar at sites with and without control. Signs of social stability steadily increased the longer an area was allowed to recover from control, but change in abundance did not follow a consistent path. Comparison of abundance and stability among all sites and years demonstrated that control severely fractures social groups, but that the effect of control on abundance was neither consistent nor predictable. Management decisions involving large social predators must therefore consider social stability to ensure their conservation and ecological functioning

Rotational knee laxity: Reliability of a simple measurement device in vivo

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Double bundle ACL reconstruction has been demonstrated to decrease rotational knee laxity. However, there is no simple, commercially-available device to measure knee rotation. The investigators developed a simple, non-invasive device to measure knee rotation. In conjunction with a rigid boot to rotate the tibia and a force/moment sensor to allow precise determination of torque about the knee, a magnetic tracking system measures the axial rotation of the tibia with respect to the femur. This device has been shown to have acceptable levels of test re-test reliability to measure knee rotation in cadaveric knees.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The objective of this study was to determine reliability of the device in measuring knee rotation of human subjects. Specifically, the intra-tester reliability within a single testing session, test-retest reliability between two testing sessions, and inter-tester reliability were assessed for 11 male subjects with normal knees.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 95% confidence interval for rotation was less than 5° for intra-tester, test-retest, and inter-tester reliability, and the standard error of measurement for the differences between left and right knees was found to be less than 3°.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>It was found that the knee rotation measurements obtained with this device have acceptable limits of reliability for clinical use and interpretation.</p

Geminin-Deficient Neural Stem Cells Exhibit Normal Cell Division and Normal Neurogenesis

Neural stem cells (NSCs) are the progenitors of neurons and glial cells during both embryonic development and adult life. The unstable regulatory protein Geminin (Gmnn) is thought to maintain neural stem cells in an undifferentiated state while they proliferate. Geminin inhibits neuronal differentiation in cultured cells by antagonizing interactions between the chromatin remodeling protein Brg1 and the neural-specific transcription factors Neurogenin and NeuroD. Geminin is widely expressed in the CNS during throughout embryonic development, and Geminin expression is down-regulated when neuronal precursor cells undergo terminal differentiation. Over-expression of Geminin in gastrula-stage Xenopus embryos can expand the size of the neural plate. The role of Geminin in regulating vertebrate neurogenesis in vivo has not been rigorously examined. To address this question, we created a strain of Nestin-Cre/Gmnnfl/fl mice in which the Geminin gene was specifically deleted from NSCs. Interestingly, we found no major defects in the development or function of the central nervous system. Neural-specific GmnnΔ/Δ mice are viable and fertile and display no obvious neurological or neuroanatomical abnormalities. They have normal numbers of BrdU+ NSCs in the subgranular zone of the dentate gyrus, and GmnnΔ/Δ NSCs give rise to normal numbers of mature neurons in pulse-chase experiments. GmnnΔ/Δ neurosphere cells differentiate normally into both neurons and glial cells when grown in growth factor-deficient medium. Both the growth rate and the cell cycle distribution of cultured GmnnΔ/Δ neurosphere cells are indistinguishable from controls. We conclude that Geminin is largely dispensable for most of embryonic and adult mammalian neurogenesis

Identification and structural analysis of C-terminally truncated collapsin response mediator protein-2 in a murine model of prion diseases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prion diseases are fatal neurodegenerative disorders that accompany an accumulation of the disease-associated form(s) of prion protein (PrP^Sc) in the central nervous system. The neuropathological changes in the brain begin with focal deposits of PrP^Sc, followed by pathomorphological abnormalities of axon terminal degeneration, synaptic loss, atrophy of dendritic trees, and eventual neuronal cell death in the lesions. However, the underlying molecular basis for these neuropathogenic abnormalities is not fully understood.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In a proteomic analysis of soluble proteins in the brains of mice challenged intracerebrally with scrapie prion (Obihiro I strain), we found that the amount of the full-length form of collapsin response mediator protein-2 (CRMP-2; 61 kDa) decreased in the late stages of the disease, while the amount of its truncated form (56 kDa) increased to comparable levels observed for the full-length form. Detailed analysis by liquid chromatography-electrospray ionization-tandem mass spectrometry showed that the 56-kDa form (named CRMP-2-ΔC) lacked the sequence from serine⁵¹⁸to the C-terminus, including the C-terminal phosphorylation sites important for the regulation of axonal growth and axon-dendrite specification in developing neurons. The invariable size of the mRNA transcript in Northern blot analysis suggested that the truncation was due to post-translational proteolysis. By overexpression of CRMP-2-ΔC in primary cultured neurons, we observed the augmentation of the development of neurite branch tips to the same levels as for CRMP-2^T514A/T555A, a non-phosphorylated mimic of the full-length protein. This suggests that the increased level of CRMP-2-ΔC in the brain modulates the integrity of neurons, and may be involved in the pathogenesis of the neuronal abnormalities observed in the late stages of the disease.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We identified the presence of CRMP-2-ΔC in the brain of a murine model of prion disease. Of note, C-terminal truncations of CRMP-2 have been recently observed in models for neurodegenerative disorders such as ischemia, traumatic brain injury, and Wallerian degeneration. While the structural identity of CRMP-2-ΔC in those models remains unknown, the present study should provide clues to the molecular pathology of degenerating neurons in prion diseases in connection with other neurodegenerative disorders.</p

Cost-Effectiveness of Pooled Nucleic Acid Amplification Testing for Acute HIV Infection after Third-Generation HIV Antibody Screening and Rapid Testing in the United States: A Comparison of Three Public Health Settings

Angela Hutchinson and colleagues conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of pooled nucleic acid amplification testing following HIV testing and show that it is not cost-effective at recommended antibody testing intervals for high-risk persons except in very high-incidence settings

Interleukin-32 Promotes Osteoclast Differentiation but Not Osteoclast Activation

Background: Interleukin-32 (IL-32) is a newly described cytokine produced after stimulation by IL-2 or IL-18 and IFN-γ. IL-32 has the typical properties of a pro-inflammatory mediator and although its role in rheumatoid arthritis has been recently reported its effect on the osteoclastogenesis process remains unclear. Methodology/principal findings: In the present study, we have shown that IL-32 was a potent modulator of osteoclastogenesis in vitro, whereby it promoted the differentiation of osteoclast precursors into TRAcP+ VNR+ multinucleated cells expressing specific osteoclast markers (up-regulation of NFATc1, OSCAR, Cathepsin K), but it was incapable of inducing the maturation of these multinucleated cells into bone-resorbing cells. The lack of bone resorption in IL-32-treated cultures could in part be explain by the lack of F-actin ring formation by the multinucleated cells generated. Moreover, when IL-32 was added to PBMC cultures maintained with soluble RANKL, although the number of newly generated osteoclast was increased, a significant decrease of the percentage of lacunar resorption was evident suggesting a possible inhibitory effect of this cytokine on osteoclast activation. To determine the mechanism by which IL-32 induces such response, we sought to determine the intracellular pathways activated and the release of soluble mediators in response to IL-32. Our results indicated that compared to RANKL, IL-32 induced a massive activation of ERK1/2 and Akt. Moreover, IL-32 was also capable of stimulating the release of IL-4 and IFN-γ, two known inhibitors of osteoclast formation and activation. Conclusions/significance: This is the first in vitro report on the complex role of IL-32 on osteoclast precursors. Further clarification on the exact role of IL-32 in vivo is required prior to the development of any potential therapeutic approach

Burial Depth and Stolon Internode Length Independently Affect Survival of Small Clonal Fragments

Disturbance can fragment plant clones into different sizes and unstabilize soils to different degrees, so that clonal fragments of different sizes can be buried in soils at different depths. As a short-term storage organ, solon internode may help fragmented clones of stoloniferous plants to withstand deeper burial in soils. We address (1) whether burial in soils decreases survival and growth of small clonal fragments, and (2) whether increasing internode length increases survival and growth of small fragments under burial. We conducted an experiment with the stoloniferous, invasive herb Alternanthera philoxeroides, in which single-node fragments with stolon internode of 0, 2, 4 and 8 cm were buried in soils at 0, 2, 4 and 8 cm depth, respectively. Increasing burial depth significantly reduced survival of the A. philoxeroides plants and increased root to shoot ratio and total stolon length, but did not change growth measures. Increasing internode length significantly increased survival and growth measures, but there was no interaction effect with burial depth on any traits measured. These results indicate that reserves stored in stolon internodes can contribute to the fitness of the A. philoxeroides plants subject to disturbance. Although burial reduced the regeneration capacity of the A. philoxeroides plants, the species may maintain the fitness by changing biomass allocation and stolon length once it survived the burial. Such responses may play an important role for A. philoxeroides in establishment and invasiveness in frequently disturbed habitats

Metabolically stable bradykinin B2 receptor agonists enhance transvascular drug delivery into malignant brain tumors by increasing drug half-life

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The intravenous co-infusion of labradimil, a metabolically stable bradykinin B2 receptor agonist, has been shown to temporarily enhance the transvascular delivery of small chemotherapy drugs, such as carboplatin, across the blood-brain tumor barrier. It has been thought that the primary mechanism by which labradimil does so is by acting selectively on tumor microvasculature to increase the local transvascular flow rate across the blood-brain tumor barrier. This mechanism of action does not explain why, in the clinical setting, carboplatin dosing based on patient renal function over-estimates the carboplatin dose required for target carboplatin exposure. In this study we investigated the systemic actions of labradimil, as well as other bradykinin B2 receptor agonists with a range of metabolic stabilities, in context of the local actions of the respective B2 receptor agonists on the blood-brain tumor barrier of rodent malignant gliomas.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI, the pharmacokinetics of gadolinium-diethyltriaminepentaacetic acid (Gd-DTPA), a small MRI contrast agent, were imaged in rodents bearing orthotopic RG-2 malignant gliomas. Baseline blood and brain tumor tissue pharmacokinetics were imaged with the 1^stbolus of Gd-DTPA over the first hour, and then re-imaged with a 2^ndbolus of Gd-DTPA over the second hour, during which normal saline or a bradykinin B2 receptor agonist was infused intravenously for 15 minutes. Changes in mean arterial blood pressure were recorded. Imaging data was analyzed using both qualitative and quantitative methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The decrease in systemic blood pressure correlated with the known metabolic stability of the bradykinin B2 receptor agonist infused. Metabolically stable bradykinin B2 agonists, methionine-lysine-bradykinin and labradimil, had differential effects on the transvascular flow rate of Gd-DTPA across the blood-brain tumor barrier. Both methionine-lysine-bradykinin and labradimil increased the blood half-life of Gd-DTPA sufficiently enough to increase significantly the tumor tissue Gd-DTPA area under the time-concentration curve.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Metabolically stable bradykinin B2 receptor agonists, methionine-lysine-bradykinin and labradimil, enhance the transvascular delivery of small chemotherapy drugs across the BBTB of malignant gliomas by increasing the blood half-life of the co-infused drug. The selectivity of the increase in drug delivery into the malignant glioma tissue, but not into normal brain tissue or skeletal muscle tissue, is due to the inherent porous nature of the BBTB of malignant glioma microvasculature.</p