Climate warming leads to divergent succession of grassland microbial communities

Accurate climate projections require an understanding of the effects of warming on ecological communities and the underlying mechanisms that drive them . However, little is known about the effects of climate warming on the succession of microbial communities . Here we examined the temporal succession of soil microbes in a long-term climate change experiment at a tall-grass prairie ecosystem. Experimental warming was found to significantly alter the community structure of bacteria and fungi. By determining the time-decay relationships and the paired differences of microbial communities under warming and ambient conditions, experimental warming was shown to lead to increasingly divergent succession of the soil microbial communities, with possibly higher impacts on fungi than bacteria. Variation partition- and null model-based analyses indicate that stochastic processes played larger roles than deterministic ones in explaining microbial community taxonomic and phylogenetic compositions. However, in warmed soils, the relative importance of stochastic processes decreased over time, indicating a potential deterministic environmental filtering elicited by warming. Although successional trajectories of microbial communities are difficult to predict under future climate change scenarios, their composition and structure are projected to be less variable due to warming-driven selection. 1–3 4,

Einstein Probe - a small mission to monitor and explore the dynamic X-ray Universe

Einstein Probe is a small mission dedicated to time-domain high-energy astrophysics. Its primary goals are to discover high-energy transients and to monitor variable objects in the $0.5-4~$keV X-rays, at higher sensitivity by one order of magnitude than those of the ones currently in orbit. Its wide-field imaging capability, featuring a large instantaneous field-of-view ($60^\circ \times60^\circ$, $\sim1.1$sr), is achieved by using established technology of micro-pore (MPO) lobster-eye optics, thereby offering unprecedentedly high sensitivity and large Grasp. To complement this powerful monitoring ability, it also carries a narrow-field, sensitive follow-up X-ray telescope based on the same MPO technology to perform follow-up observations of newly-discovered transients. Public transient alerts will be downlinked rapidly, so as to trigger multi-wavelength follow-up observations from the world-wide community. Over three of its 97-minute orbits almost the entire night sky will be sampled, with cadences ranging from 5 to 25 times per day. The scientific objectives of the mission are: to discover otherwise quiescent black holes over all astrophysical mass scales by detecting their rare X-ray transient flares, particularly tidal disruption of stars by massive black holes at galactic centers; to detect and precisely locate the electromagnetic sources of gravitational-wave transients; to carry out systematic surveys of X-ray transients and characterize the variability of X-ray sources. Einstein Probe has been selected as a candidate mission of priority (no further selection needed) in the Space Science Programme of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, aiming for launch around 2020.Comment: accepted to publish in PoS, Proceedings of "Swift: 10 Years of Discovery" (Proceedings of Science; ed. by P. Caraveo, P. D'Avanzo, N. Gehrels and G. Tagliaferri). Minor changes in text, references update

A Unified Approach to the Classical Statistical Analysis of Small Signals

We give a classical confidence belt construction which unifies the treatment of upper confidence limits for null results and two-sided confidence intervals for non-null results. The unified treatment solves a problem (apparently not previously recognized) that the choice of upper limit or two-sided intervals leads to intervals which are not confidence intervals if the choice is based on the data. We apply the construction to two related problems which have recently been a battle-ground between classical and Bayesian statistics: Poisson processes with background, and Gaussian errors with a bounded physical region. In contrast with the usual classical construction for upper limits, our construction avoids unphysical confidence intervals. In contrast with some popular Bayesian intervals, our intervals eliminate conservatism (frequentist coverage greater than the stated confidence) in the Gaussian case and reduce it to a level dictated by discreteness in the Poisson case. We generalize the method in order to apply it to analysis of experiments searching for neutrino oscillations. We show that this technique both gives correct coverage and is powerful, while other classical techniques that have been used by neutrino oscillation search experiments fail one or both of these criteria.Comment: 40 pages, 15 figures. Changes 15-Dec-99 to agree more closely with published version. A few small changes, plus the two substantive changes we made in proof back in 1998: 1) The definition of "sensitivity" in Sec. V(C). It was inconsistent with our actual definition in Sec. VI. 2) "Note added in proof" at end of the Conclusio

Cost-Effectiveness of Salt Substitute and Salt Supply Restriction in Eldercare Facilities: The DECIDE-Salt Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial

Importance: Salt substitution has been reported to be a cost-saving sodium reduction strategy that has not yet been replicated in different contexts. Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of sodium reduction strategies within the DECIDE-Salt trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: The DECIDE-Salt trial cluster randomized in a 1:1:1:1 ratio 48 eldercare facilities in China into 4 groups for evaluation of 2 sodium reduction strategies for 2 years: 1 with both strategies, 2 with either strategy, and 1 with neither strategy. The trial was conducted from September 25, 2017, through October 24, 2020. Interventions: The 2 intervention strategies were replacing regular salt with salt substitute and progressively restricting salt supply to kitchens. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes included per-participant costs of intervention implementation and medical treatments for hypertension and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) against mean reductions in systolic blood pressure, hypertension prevalence, MACE incidence, and mortality. The incremental cost-utility ratio was then assessed as the additional mean cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Analyses were conducted separately for each strategy, comparing groups assigned and not assigned the test strategy. Disease outcomes followed the intention-to-treat principle and adopted different models as appropriate. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore uncertainty, and data analyses were performed between August 13, 2022, and April 5, 2023. Results: A total of 1612 participants (1230 males [76.3%]) with a mean (SD) age of 71.0 (9.5) years were enrolled. Replacing regular salt with salt substitute reduced mean systolic blood pressure by 7.14 (95% CI, 3.79-10.48) mm Hg, hypertension prevalence by 5.09 (95% CI, 0.37-9.80) percentage points, and cumulative MACEs by 2.27 (95% CI, 0.09-4.45) percentage points. At the end of the 2-year intervention, the mean cost was $25.95 less for the salt substitute group than the regular salt group due to substantial savings in health care costs for MACEs (mean [SD],$72.88 [$9.11] vs$111.18 [$13.90], respectively). Sensitivity analysis showed robust cost savings. By contrast, the salt restriction strategy did not show significant results. If the salt substitution strategy were rolled out to all eldercare facilities in China, 48 101 MACEs and 107 857 hypertension cases were estimated to be averted and$54 982 278 saved in the first 2 years. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cluster randomized clinical trial indicate that salt substitution may be a cost-saving strategy for hypertension control and cardiovascular disease prevention for residents of eldercare facilities in China. The substantial health benefit savings in preventing MACEs and moderate operating costs offer strong evidence to support the Chinese government and other countries in planning or implementing sodium intake reduction and salt substitute campaigns. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03290716

The all-particle spectrum of primary cosmic rays in the wide energy range from 10^14 eV to 10^17 eV observed with the Tibet-III air-shower array

We present an updated all-particle energy spectrum of primary cosmic rays in a wide range from 10^14 eV to 10^17 eV using 5.5 times 10^7 events collected in the period from 2000 November through 2004 October by the Tibet-III air-shower array located at 4300 m above sea level (atmospheric depth of 606 g/cm^2). The size spectrum exhibits a sharp knee at a corresponding primary energy around 4 PeV. This work uses increased statistics and new simulation calculations for the analysis. We performed extensive Monte Carlo calculations and discuss the model dependences involved in the final result assuming interaction models of QGSJET01c and SIBYLL2.1 and primary composition models of heavy dominant (HD) and proton dominant (PD) ones. Pure proton and pure iron primary models are also examined as extreme cases. The detector simulation was also made to improve the accuracy of determining the size of the air showers and the energy of the primary particle. We confirmed that the all-particle energy spectra obtained under various plausible model parameters are not significantly different from each other as expected from the characteristics of the experiment at the high altitude, where the air showers of the primary energy around the knee reaches near maximum development and their features are dominated by electromagnetic components leading to the weak dependence on the interaction model or the primary mass. This is the highest-statistical and the best systematics-controlled measurement covering the widest energy range around the knee energy region.Comment: 19 pages, 20 figures, accepted by Ap