Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon

In this study we developed a methodology to identify and quantify the relationships among determinants of land cover change using a regional case study in the Brazilian Amazon. The method is based on the application of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that provides a structured assessment of key feedbacks in scenario analysis. Novel to the application of FCMs is the use of spatial data-sets as the main input to build a cognitive map. Identification of interactions between land cover determinants and strengths is based on an empirical analysis of spatially explicit data and literature review. Expert knowledge is adopted to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the method. Potential pitfalls, such as spatial autocorrelation and scale issues, identified are intrinsic to the empirical data analysis. The outputs of the resulting FCMs are compared to the outputs of spatially explicit models under similar scenarios of change. The proposed method is said to be robust and reproducible when compared with participatory approaches, and it can endorse the consistency between demand and allocation in scenario analysis to be used in spatially explicit models

Aboveground biomass of a "campina" ecosystem in Roraima, Northern of Brazilian Amazonia

The aboveground biomass of a "campina" ecosystem was estimated in Roraima, in the northern portion of Brazilian Amazonia. The biomass was determined from a phytosociological inventory (1 ha) and distributed between two categories: (1) grassy-woody, composed of "herbs+lichens" (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Eriocaulaceae, Cladonia spp), Bromeliaceae, seedlings, fine and coarse litter and, (2) woody, composed of trees and bushes. The grassy-woody category was estimated by the direct method (cutting and weighing) in 10 1-m² plots, taking advantage of transects of the inventory. The category woody was estimated by the indirect method cutting 98 individuals of different species and diameters. A model was generated to express the relationship among total dry above-ground biomass (kg), base circumference (cm) and total height (m) for the individuals in this category. The equation was applied to the 3,966 ind.ha-1 observed in the inventory. The total biomass was estimated at 15.91 t.ha-1, of which 2.20 ± 0.23 t.ha-1 (13.8%) was in the grassy-woody category and 13.70 ± 7.13 t.ha-1 (86.2%) in woody category. The tree species with the highest biomass was Humiria balsamifera (Aubl.) St. Hill. (8.43 t.ha-1), followed by Pagamea guianensis Aubl. (1.14 t.ha-1). These results are important for refining the calculations of greenhouse-gas emissions from burning and decomposition of above-ground biomass in "campina" ecosystems in the Amazon region.Foi estimada a biomassa (viva + morta) acima do solo de um ecossistema de "campina" localizado em Roraima, norte da Amazônia brasileira. A biomassa foi determinada a partir de um inventário fitossociológico (1 ha amostral) e distribuída em dois estratos(1) gramíneo-lenhoso, composto de "ervas + liquens" (Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Eriocaulaceae, Cladonia spp), Bromeliaceae, plântulas, "litter" fino e grosso e, (2) arbóreo-arbustivo, composto por árvores e arbustos. O estrato gramíneo-lenhoso foi estimado pelo método direto (corte e pesagem) através de 10 quadras de 1m², aproveitando os transectos do inventário. O estrato arbóreo-arbustivo foi estimado pelo método indireto com o corte de 98 indivíduos de diferentes espécies e diâmetros. Foi gerado um modelo para expressar a relação entre a biomassa seca total (kg), a circunferência de base (cm) e a altura total (m) para os indivíduos deste estrato. A equação foi aplicada nos 3.966 indivíduos.ha-1 observados no inventário. A biomassa total foi estimada em 15,91 t.ha-1, sendo 2,20 ± 0,23 t.ha-1 (13,8%) do estrato gramíneo-lenhoso e 13,70 ± 7,13 t.ha-1 (86,2%) do arbóreo-arbustivo. A espécie arbórea de maior biomassa foi Humiria balsamifera (Aubl.) St. Hill. (8,43 t.ha-1), seguida de Pagamea guianensis Aubl. (1,14 t.ha-1). Estes resultados são importantes para refinar os cálculos de emissão de gases do efeito estufa pela queima e decomposição da biomassa acima do solo em ecossistemas de campinas na Amazônia