Interpreting Posterior Relative Risk Estimates in Disease-Mapping Studies

There is currently much interest in conducting spatial analyses of health outcomes at the small-area scale. This requires sophisticated statistical techniques, usually involving Bayesian models, to smooth the underlying risk estimates because the data are typically sparse. However, questions have been raised about the performance of these models for recovering the “true” risk surface, about the influence of the prior structure specified, and about the amount of smoothing of the risks that is actually performed. We describe a comprehensive simulation study designed to address these questions. Our results show that Bayesian disease-mapping models are essentially conservative, with high specificity even in situations with very sparse data but low sensitivity if the raised-risk areas have only a moderate (< 2-fold) excess or are not based on substantial expected counts (> 50 per area). Semiparametric spatial mixture models typically produce less smoothing than their conditional autoregressive counterpart when there is sufficient information in the data (moderate-size expected count and/or high true excess risk). Sensitivity may be improved by exploiting the whole posterior distribution to try to detect true raised-risk areas rather than just reporting and mapping the mean posterior relative risk. For the widely used conditional autoregressive model, we show that a decision rule based on computing the probability that the relative risk is above 1 with a cutoff between 70 and 80% gives a specific rule with reasonable sensitivity for a range of scenarios having moderate expected counts (~ 20) and excess risks (~1.5- to 2-fold). Larger (3-fold) excess risks are detected almost certainly using this rule, even when based on small expected counts, although the mean of the posterior distribution is typically smoothed to about half the true value

Cumulate causes for the low contents of sulfide-loving elements in the continental crust

Despite the economic importance of chalcophile (sulfide-loving) and siderophile (metal-loving) elements (CSEs), it is unclear how they become enriched or depleted in the continental crust, compared with the oceanic crust. This is due in part to our limited understanding of the partitioning behaviour of the CSEs. Here I compile compositional data for mid-ocean ridge basalts and subduction-related volcanic rocks. I show that the mantle-derived melts that contribute to oceanic and continental crust formation rarely avoid sulfide saturation during cooling in the crust and, on average, subduction-zone magmas fractionate sulfide at the base of the continental crust prior to ascent. Differentiation of mantle-derived melts enriches lower crustal sulfide- and silicate-bearing cumulates in some CSEs compared with the upper crust. This storage predisposes the cumulate-hosted compatible CSEs (such as Cu and Au) to be recycled back into the mantle during subduction and delamination, resulting in their low contents in the bulk continental crust and potentially contributing to the scarcity of ore deposits in the upper continental crust. By contrast, differentiation causes the upper oceanic and continental crust to become enriched in incompatible CSEs (such as W) compared with the lower oceanic and continental crust. Consequently, incompatible CSEs are predisposed to become enriched in subduction-zone magmas that contribute to continental crust formation and are less susceptible to removal from the continental crust via delamination compared with the compatible CSEs

Impedance-based sensor for potassium ions.

A conductometric sensor for potassium ions in solution is presented. Interdigitated, planar gold electrodes were coated with a potassium-selective polymer membrane composed of a poly(vinyl chloride) matrix with about 65 wt% of plasticiser and 2-5 wt% of a potassium-selective ionophore. The impedance of the membrane was measured, using the electrodes as a transducer, and related to the concentration of potassium in a sample solution in contact with the membrane. Sensitivity was optimised by varying the sensor components, and selectivity for potassium over sodium was also shown. The resulting devices are compact, miniature, robust sensors which, by means of impedance measurements, eliminate the need for a reference electrode. The sensor was tested for potassium concentration changes of 2 mM across the clinically relevant range of 2.7-18.7 mM.Henslow Fellowship, Darwin College, Cambridge L'Oreal -UNESCO UK & Ireland Fellowship For Women In Scienc

New Forearm Elements Discovered of Holotype Specimen Australovenator wintonensis from Winton, Queensland, Australia

New skeletal elements are reported of the holotype specimen Australovenator wintonensis, from the type locality, near Winton, central western Queensland. New elements include left and right humeri, right radius, right radiale, right distal carpal 1, near complete right metacarpal I, left manual phalanx II-1, left manual phalanx II-2, near complete left manual phalanx II-3 and a left manual phalanx III-3. These new elements combined with those previously described are compared against other neovenatorids

Results of the MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR's Search for Double-Beta Decay of 76Ge to Excited States of 76Se

The MAJORANA DEMONSTRATOR is searching for double-beta decay of 76Ge to excited states (E.S.) in 76Se using a modular array of high purity Germanium detectors. 76Ge can decay into three E.S.s of 76Se. The E.S. decays have a clear event signature consisting of a ββ-decay with the prompt emission of one or two γ-rays, resulting in with high probability in a multi-site event. The granularity of the DEMONSTRATOR detector array enables powerful discrimination of this event signature from backgrounds. Using 21.3 kg-y of isotopic exposure, the DEMONSTRATOR has set world leading limits for each E.S. decay, with 90% CL lower half-life limits in the range of (0.56 2.1) ⋅ 1024 y. In particular, for the 2v transition to the first 0+ E.S. of 76Se, a lower half-life limit of 0.68 ⋅ 1024 at 90% CL was achieved

ADC Nonlinearity Correction for the Majorana Demonstrator

Imperfections in analog-to-digital conversion (ADC) cannot be ignored when signal digitization requirements demand both wide dynamic range and high resolution, as is the case for the Majorana Demonstrator 76Ge neutrinoless double-beta decay search. Enabling the experiment's high-resolution spectral analysis and efficient pulse shape discrimination required careful measurement and correction of ADC nonlinearities. A simple measurement protocol was developed that did not require sophisticated equipment or lengthy data-taking campaigns. A slope-dependent hysteresis was observed and characterized. A correction applied to digitized waveforms prior to signal processing reduced the differential and integral nonlinearities by an order of magnitude, eliminating these as dominant contributions to the systematic energy uncertainty at the double-beta decay Q value

Galanin Receptor 1 Deletion Exacerbates Hippocampal Neuronal Loss after Systemic Kainate Administration in Mice

Galanin is a neuropeptide with a wide distribution in the central and peripheral nervous systems and whose physiological effects are mediated through three G protein-coupled receptor subtypes, GalR1, GalR2, and GalR3. Several lines of evidence indicate that galanin, as well as activation of the GalR1 receptor, is a potent and effective modulator of neuronal excitability in the hippocampus.In order to test more formally the potential influence of GalR1 on seizure-induced excitotoxic cell death, we conducted functional complementation tests in which transgenic mice that exhibit decreased expression of the GalR1 candidate mRNA underwent kainate-induced status epilepticus to determine if the quantitative trait of susceptibility to seizure-induced cell death is determined by the activity of GalR1. In the present study, we report that reduction of GalR1 mRNA via null mutation or injection of the GalR1 antagonist, galantide, prior to kainate-induced status epilepticus induces hippocampal damage in a mouse strain known to be highly resistant to kainate-induced neuronal injury. Wild-type and GalR1 knockout mice were subjected to systemic kainate administration. Seven days later, Nissl and NeuN immune- staining demonstrated that hippocampal cell death was significantly increased in GalR1 knockout strains and in animals injected with the GalR1 antagonist. Compared to GalR1-expressing mice, GalR1-deficient mice had significantly larger hippocampal lesions after status epilepticus.Our results suggest that a reduction of GalR1 expression in the C57BL/6J mouse strain renders them susceptible to excitotoxic injury following systemic kainate administration. From these results, GalR1 protein emerges as a new molecular target that may have a potential therapeutic value in modulating seizure-induced cell death

Experiences of mental illness stigma, prejudice and discrimination: A review of measures

Background: There has been a substantial increase in research on mental illness related stigma over the past 10 years, with many measures in use. This study aims to review current practice in the survey measurement of mental illness stigma, prejudice and discrimination experienced by people who have personal experience of mental illness. We will identify measures used, their characteristics and psychometric properties. Method. A narrative literature review of survey measures of mental illness stigma was conducted. The databases Medline, PsychInfo and the British Nursing Index were searched for the period 1990-2009. Results: 57 studies were included in the review. 14 survey measures of mental illness stigma were identified. Seven of the located measures addressed aspects of perceived stigma, 10 aspects of experienced stigma and 5 aspects of self-stigma. Of the identified studies, 79% used one of the measures of perceived stigma, 46% one of the measures of experienced stigma and 33% one of the measures of self-stigma. All measures presented some information on psychometric properties. Conclusions: The review was structured by considering perceived, experienced and self stigma as separate but related constructs. It provides a resource to aid researchers in selecting the measure of mental illness stigma which is most appropriate to their purpose. © 2010 Brohan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd

Long-term declines in ADLs, IADLs, and mobility among older Medicare beneficiaries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Most prior studies have focused on short-term (≤ 2 years) functional declines. But those studies cannot address aging effects inasmuch as all participants have aged the same amount. Therefore, the authors studied the extent of long-term functional decline in older Medicare beneficiaries who were followed for varying time lengths, and the authors also identified the risk factors associated with those declines.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The analytic sample included 5,871 self- or proxy-respondents who had complete baseline and follow-up survey data that could be linked to their Medicare claims for 1993-2007. Functional status was assessed using activities of daily living (ADLs), instrumental ADLs (IADLs), and mobility limitations, with declines defined as the development of two of more new difficulties. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to focus on the associations involving respondent status, health lifestyle, continuity of care, managed care status, health shocks, and terminal drop.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The average amount of time between the first and final interviews was 8.0 years. Declines were observed for 36.6% on ADL abilities, 32.3% on IADL abilities, and 30.9% on mobility abilities. Functional decline was more likely to occur when proxy-reports were used, and the effects of baseline function on decline were reduced when proxy-reports were used. Engaging in vigorous physical activity consistently and substantially protected against functional decline, whereas obesity, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption were only associated with mobility declines. Post-baseline hospitalizations were the most robust predictors of functional decline, exhibiting a dose-response effect such that the greater the average annual number of hospital episodes, the greater the likelihood of functional status decline. Participants whose final interview preceded their death by one year or less had substantially greater odds of functional status decline.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Both the additive and interactive (with functional status) effects of respondent status should be taken into consideration whenever proxy-reports are used. Encouraging exercise could broadly reduce the risk of functional decline across all three outcomes, although interventions encouraging weight reduction and smoking cessation would only affect mobility declines. Reducing hospitalization and re-hospitalization rates could also broadly reduce the risk of functional decline across all three outcomes.</p