Bio-inspired algorithm optimization of neural network for the prediction of Dubai crude oil price

Previous studies proposed several bio-inspired algorithms for the optimization of Neural Network (NN) to avoid local minima and to improve accuracy and convergence speed. To advance the performance of NN, a new bio-inspired algorithm called Flower Pollination Algorithm (FPA) is used to optimize the weights and bias of NN due to its ability to explore very large search space and frequent chosen of similar solution. The FPA optimized NN (FPNN) was applied to build a model for the prediction of Dubai crude oil price unlike previous studies that mainly focus on theWest Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil price benchmarks. Result

The dynamics of commodity return comovements

We compare factor models with respect to their ability to explain commodity futures return comovements. A simple one-factor model based on the first principal component extracted from a panel of commodity returns outperforms a macroeconomic model, and explains most of the realized comovements. We find that intersectoral correlations display more time variations than intrasectoral correlations. Dissecting the evidence further, we find that comovements are driven by the variation of the factor as opposed to exposure to it. Our results cast doubt on the persistence of the effects of financialization and emphasize the importance of the dynamics of the factor variance

Global energy governance : a review and research agenda

Over the past few years, global energy governance (GEG) has emerged as a major new field of enquiry in international studies. Scholars engaged in this field seek to understand how the energy sector is governed at the global level, by whom and with what consequences. By focusing on governance, they broaden and enrich the geopolitical and hard-nosed security perspectives that have long been, and still are, the dominant perspectives through which energy is analysed. Though still a nascent field, the literature on GEG is thriving and continues to attract the attention of a growing number of researchers. This article reviews the GEG literature as it has developed over the past 10 years. Our aim is to highlight both the progress and limitations of the field, and to identify some opportunities for future research. The article proceeds as follows. First, it traces the origins of the GEG literature (section “Origins and roots of GEG research”). The subsequent sections deal with the two topics that have received the most attention in the GEG literature: Why does energy need global governance (section “The goals and rationale of global energy governance”)? And, who governs energy (section “Mapping the global energy architecture”)? We then address a third question that has received far less attention: How well or poor is energy governed (section “Evaluating global energy governance”)? In our conclusions (section “Conclusions and outlook”), we reflect on the current state of GEG, review recent trends and innovations, and identify some questions that warrant future consideration by scholars. This article is published as part of a thematic collection on global governance

An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System

The main purpose of this report is to analyse the main features of the current crude oil pricing system; to describe the structure of the main benchmarks currently used namely Brent West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Dubai-Oman; to clearly identify the various financial layers that have emerged around these physical benchmarks; to analyse the links between the different financial layers and between the financial layers and the physical benchmarks; and then to evaluate how these links influence the price discovery and oil price formation process in the crude oil market. The report finds that the assumption that the process of identifying the price of benchmarks in the current oil pricing system can be isolated from financial layers is rather simplistic. The different layers of the oil market are highly interconnected and form a complex web of links, all of which play a role in the price discovery process. The report also calls for broadening the empirical research to include the trading strategies of physical players; any analysis limited to non-commercial participants in the futures market and their role in the oil price formation process is incomplete. The report also emphasises the distinction between trade in price differentials and trade in price levels and finds that the level of the oil price, which consumers producers and their governments are most concerned with is not the most relevant feature in the current pricing system. Instead the identification of price differentials and the adjustments in these differentials in the various layers underlie the basis of the current oil pricing system

Saudi Oil Policy: Continuity and Change in the Era of the Energy Transition

The crucial position that Saudi Arabia has in global oil markets cannot be overstated. In 2019 its proven crude oil reserves stood at 297.6 billion barrels, representing 17 per cent of the world’s total. In the same year Saudi Arabia produced 11.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude, blended, and unblended condensates, and natural gas liquids. The country produces a wide array of crudes, ranging from Arab Super Light all the way to Arabian Heavy. Despite rising domestic demand in the past few decades, Saudi Arabia exports the bulk of its crude production and thus has a dominant position in international trade. It is the only country that has an official policy of maintaining spare capacity that can be utilized within a relatively short time at a low cost. Saudi Arabia’s reserves are also among the cheapest in the world to find, develop, and produce. In contrast to some neighbouring countries and other OPEC members, such as Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Venezuela, Saudi Arabia has not experienced conflict or political instability and has not been subject to international sanctions. It has thus been able to invest heavily in its energy sector and integrate the upstream sector with refining and downstream assets, both in the kingdom and overseas. The oil and gas sectors are also heavily integrated, given the large volumes of associated gas produced. Saudi Arabia also has also a dominant position in OPEC and historically the organization’s key decisions have been shaped by the kingdom, either those related to cutting output to balance the market or increasing output to offset output disruption within OPEC and elsewhere. Although Saudi Arabia’s output has not been impacted by political or military shocks it has nonetheless been highly variable reflecting the kingdom’s flexibility to increase and decrease output in response to shocks. Given its size and large margins, the oil sector also plays a key role in the Saudi economy. Despite new revenue sources, the government remains highly reliant on oil revenues for its current and capital spending. Also, government spending is a key driver of growth in non-oil and private-sector activity through infrastructure investment, public sector wage bills, and social transfers. All the aforementioned features, from the size of the kingdom’s reserve base and production to the high reliance of government finances on oil revenues, have shaped Saudi oil policy choices and its relations with other producers over the years. The main purpose of this paper is to analyse a range of these policy choices and relations, their determinants, and the evolving role of the oil sector in the context of an energy transition, the speed of which remains highly uncertain and its impact uneven across the globe

OPEC – What Difference has it Made?

The main purpose of this paper is to review the evolution of OPEC models and to link this evolution to some key events in the oil market. Our main conclusion is that OPEC’s pricing power varies over time. There are many instances in which OPEC can lose the power to limit oil price movements – either up or down. Such changes in pricing power are brought about by market conditions and can occur both in weak and tight market conditions. Because of OPEC’s varying conduct, there is no single model that fits its behaviour and hence analysts have been forced to choose from a wide range of models to explain certain episodes. The empirical literature has not been successful in distinguishing between the various competing models, as these models offer very similar predictions. This paper is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Resource Economics