The Finance Growth Link: Comparative Analysis of Two Eastern African Countries

This paper examines the finance growth link of two low-income Sub-Saharan African economies – Ethiopia and Kenya – which have different financial systems but are located in the same region. Unlike previous studies, we account for the role of non-bank financial intermediaries and formally model the effect of structural breaks caused by policy and market-induced economic events. We used the Vector Autoregressive model (VAR), conducted impulse response analysis and examined variance decomposition. We find that neither the level of financial intermediary development nor the level of stock market development explains economic growth in Kenya. For Ethiopia, which has no stock market, intermediary development is found to be driven by economic growth. Three important inferences can be made from these findings. First, the often reported positive link between finance and growth might be caused by the aggregation of countries at different stages of economic growth and financial development. Second, country-specific economic situations and episodes are important in studying the relationship between financial development and economic growth. Third, there is the possibility that the econometric model employed to test the finance growth link plays a role in the empirical result, as we note that prior studies did not introduce control variables

Ways out from Crisis and New Welfare Models

Se argumenta que en la actualidad se combinan al menos cinco efectos en la sociedad que requieren respuestas políticas: las consecuencias de la crisis económica global en la desigualdad, el cambio climático, los nuevos virus como el SARS-CoV-2, una nueva etapa tecnológica y una crisis de representación. Para abordar estos efectos se propone un Estado de bienestar democrático 3.0” que garantice la provisión de bienes fundamentales, mejore la condición subordinada de la mujer, sobre la base de una economía mixta en la que opere el principio de “subsidiaridad inversa”. Esta nueva etapa debe enmendar la participación de los trabajadores en las empresas, que el centro de la economía sea el pleno empleo, terminar con el “capitalismo de herederos” y crear un Fondo de Desconcentración y Sustentabilidad, junto con otras cinco lógicas de asignación propuestas. Además, se deben considerar los riesgos y oportunidades de la cuarta revolución industrial y abordar esta transformación de forma mixta -por ejemplo, mediante misiones tecnológicas-, democrática y circular. El artículo concluye con la propuesta de un decálogo de redefiniciones de política.It is argued that nowadays at least five effects are combined in society that requires political answers: the global economic crisis consequences on inequality, the climate change, new viruses such as SARS-CoV-2, a new technologic phase and a crisis of representation. To address these effects a new Democratic Welfare State 3.0 is proposed that guarantee the provision of fundamental goods, improve the subordinate condition of women, based on a mixed economy that operates on an “inverse subsidiary” principle. This new phase should amend workers participation in corporations, that the core of economy is meant to be full employment, finish with the “capitalism of heirs”, and create a Deconcentration and Sustainability Fund, among another five allocation logics proposed. Moreover, fourth industrial revolution risks and opportunities should be considered and address this transformation on a mixed manner -for example through technological missions-, democratically, and circular. The paper concludes proposing a decalogue of policy redefinitions

El Derrocamiento

50 years ago, It commited the overthrow of a legitimate and democratic Government, followed by a violent and prolonged repression, but, not a failure of historical project which inspired the Popular Unity government. This project carried on in other ways, from a spirit of resistance which it sign up in decades of social struggles. Even so, in this fiftieth anniversary, the disqualifications of historical project of left-wing and Salvador Allende government have remained and, in the right-wing world, the injury is patent. In this essay, through a historical-economic account of President Allende government, I desmystify the set of those disqualifications, at the same time I identify the relevance and future of allendist project 50 years later, in this currently Chile.Hace 50 años, se produjo el derrocamiento de un Gobierno legítimo y democrático, seguido de una represión violenta y prolongada, mas, no un fracaso del proyecto histórico que inspiró al gobierno de la Unidad Popular. Este proyecto siguió adelante bajo otras formas, a partir de un espíritu de resistencia que se inscribe en décadas de lucha sociales. Con todo, en este quincuagésimo aniversario, las descalificaciones del proyecto histórico de la izquierda y del gobierno de Salvador Allende han persistido y, en el mundo conservador, la injuria es patente. En este ensayo, a través de un recuento histórico-económico del gobierno del Presidente Allende, desmitifico el conjunto de tales descalificaciones, al par que identifico la actualidad y el futuro del proyecto allendista 50 años después, en este Chile de hoy

Hacia una Nueva Macroeconomía del Desarrollo

Since the social crisis on October 2019 in Chile, the debate on economic policy has become more relevant, questioning the minimal State approach that do not react to market failures and does not promote productive transformations. A new macroeconomics of development must articulate a diversified growth base, redistribution of assets and incomes, decentralization, social economy, carbon-neutrality and a sustainable territorial planning. This article proposes four essential points over which the new macroeconomics of development articulates in the chilean case: a new institutionalism for development and wellbeing, growth and degrowth, redistribution and structural transformation.A partir de la crisis social de octubre de 2019 en Chile, el debate sobre la política económica ha vuelto a tener mayor relevancia, cuestionando el enfoque de Estado mínimo que no reacciona a las fallas de mercados y no promueve transformaciones productivas. Una nueva macroeconomía del desarrollo debe articular un crecimiento sobre una base diversificada, una redistribución de ingresos y activos, fomentando la descentralización, la economía social, la carbono-neutralidad y el ordenamiento sostenible del territorio. Este articulo propone cuatro puntos esenciales sobre los que se articula esta nueva macroeconomía del desarrollo para el caso chileno: una nueva institucionalidad para el desarrollo y el bienestar, crecimiento y decrecimiento, redistribución y transformación estructural

La fecundidad de las migrantes del Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia, el Paraguay y el Perú en el Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires en la primera década del siglo XXI

El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la fecundidad de las migrantes nacidas en el Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia, el Paraguay y el Perú residentes en el Área Metropolitana de Buenos Aires, y su contribución al nivel agregado de este componente en 2001 y 2010. Se presenta un análisis comparativo respecto de la población femenina nativa y la residente en los países de origen, a partir de indicadores de fecundidad de cohorte y de período. Los resultados muestran que las migrantes limítrofes y del Perú ostentan una mayor descendencia final, una estructura reproductiva más temprana y niveles de fecundidad coyuntural superiores a los de las mujeres argentinas. La relación con la población de origen es, en cambio, más compleja. Al respecto, se examinan algunas de las principales hipótesis que intentan explicar la interacción entre migración y fecundidad. Finalmente, aunque el aporte de las migrantes limítrofes y del Perú a la natalidad es moderado, su contribución al nivel de la fecundidad total es irrelevante, al no producir modificaciones sustantivas sobre los resultados agregados.The aim of this study is to analyse the fertility of immigrant women born in the Plurinational State of Bolivia, Paraguay and Peru, residing in the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires, and their contribution to the aggregate level of this component in 2001 and 2010. A comparative analysis is presented with respect to native-born female population and women in the countries of origin, based on cohort and period fertility indicators. The results show that immigrants from the countries studied present higher cumulative fertility, earlier reproductive structures and higher levels of period fertility than Argentine women. The relationship with the population of origin is, however, more complex. In this regard, some of the main hypotheses for the interaction between migration and fertility are examined. Finally, although the contribution of bordering immigrants to the birth rate is moderate, their impact on the level of total fertility is irrelevant and does not significantly change the aggregate results.L’objectif de cet article est d’analyser la fécondité des migrants nés dans l’État plurinational de Bolivie, au Paraguay et au Pérou et vivant dans la zone métropolitaine de Buenos Aires, ainsi que leur contribution au niveau global de cette composante en 2001 et 2010. L’article présente une analyse comparative de la population féminine autochtone et de la population vivant dans les pays d’origine, sur la base d’indicateurs de fécondité par cohorte et par période. Les résultats indiquent que les femmes migrantes des pays analysés se caractérisent par une progéniture finale plus élevée, une structure de procréation plus précoce et des taux de fécondité à court terme plus élevés que ceux des femmes argentines. Mais les relations avec la population d’origine sont plus complexes. A cet égard, l’auteur examine certaines des principales hypothèses qui tentent d’expliquer l’interaction entre migration et fécondité. Enfin, si la contribution au taux de natalité des migrantes boliviennes, paraguayennes et péruviennes est modérée, leur contribution à l’indice synthétique de fécondité n’est pas pertinente, car elle n’entraîne pas de changements substantiels dans les résultats globaux.Fil: Fanta Garrido, Javiera. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Instituto de Investigaciones "Gino Germani"; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Quiroga, Daniel Esteban. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Catamarca; ArgentinaFil: Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba; Argentin

The Performance of a Rapid Diagnostic Test in Detecting Malaria Infection in Pregnant Women and the Impact of Missed Infections.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent screening and treatment in pregnancy (ISTp) is a potential strategy for the control of malaria during pregnancy. However, the frequency and consequences of malaria infections missed by a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for malaria are a concern. METHODS: Primigravidae and secundigravidae who participated in the ISTp arm of a noninferiority trial in 4 West African countries were screened with an HRP2/pLDH RDT on enrollment and, in Ghana, at subsequent antenatal clinic (ANC) visits. Blood samples were examined subsequently by microscopy and by a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay. RESULTS: The sensitivity of the RDT to detect peripheral blood infections confirmed by microscopy and/or PCR at enrollment ranged from 91% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88%, 94%) in Burkina Faso to 59% (95% CI, 48%, 70% in The Gambia. In Ghana, RDT sensitivity was 89% (95% CI, 85%, 92%), 83% (95% CI, 76%, 90%) and 77% (95% CI, 67%, 86%) at enrollment, second and third ANC visits respectively but only 49% (95% CI, 31%, 66%) at delivery. Screening at enrollment detected 56% of all infections detected throughout pregnancy. Seventy-five RDT negative PCR or microscopy positive infections were detected in 540 women; these were not associated with maternal anemia, placental malaria, or low birth weight. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity of an RDT to detect malaria in primigravidae and secundigravidae was high at enrollment in 3 of 4 countries and, in Ghana, at subsequent ANC visits. In Ghana, RDT negative malaria infections were not associated with adverse birth outcomes but missed infections were uncommon

Mortality related to malnutrition and infectious diseases in children under than 5 years in Argentina in the period 2001-2013

El presente documento busca analizar las tendencias de mortalidad por desnutrición y por causas infecciosas en menores de cinco años durante el período 2001-2013 en la Argentina. Para ello se construyeron tasas de mortalidad por cada 100.000 recién nacidos en los menores de 1 año y por cada 100.000 niños en las edades de 1-4 años. Las tendencias se analizaron por modelos de regresión de Poisson. Los principales resultados muestran que las tasas de mortalidad en menores de 1 año y en niños de 1-4 años presentaron una tendencia descendente en los años analizados (p< 0,01), con excepción de la mortalidad por enfermedades infecciosas de origen respiratorio en el grupo de 1-4. La cobertura de seguro de salud del niño se comportó como factor protector para el riesgo de morir (p<0,01). El documento concluye que las tendencias de mortalidad descendieron entre los años 2001-2013, mientras que la cobertura de seguro de salud es un factor protector para esa mortalidad.This document seeks to analyze trends in mortality from malnutrition and infectious diseases in children under five years during the period 2001-2013 in Argentina, and to identify the association between health insurance coverage and the risk of dying from selected causes. To this end, mortality rates were built per 100,000 newborns in children under 1 year and per 100,000 children in aged 1-4 years. Trends were analyzed by Poisson regression models. The main results show that mortality rates in children under 1 year and children aged 1-4 years showed a downward trend in analyzed years (p<0.01), except for mortality from infectious diseases of respiratory origin in the group aged 1-4 years. The health insurance coverage of children behaved as a protective factor for the risk of death (p<0.01). The document concludes that mortality trends decreased between the years 2001-2013, while health insurance coverage is a protective factor for mortalityFil: Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel. Universidad de la Sierra Sur; MéxicoFil: Fanta Garrido, Javiera. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Sociales. Instituto de Investigaciones "Gino Germani"; ArgentinaFil: González Villoria, Ruth Ana María. Universidad de la Sierra Sur; MéxicoFil: Castellanos Ospina, Oscar Augusto. Dirección de Censos y Demografía; ColombiaFil: Quiroga, Daniel Esteban. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Catamarca. Facultad de Cs.econom.y Administración. Instituto de Invest. Estadísticas y Demograficas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Catamarca. Facultad de Humanidades; Argentin

Non-falciparum malaria infections in pregnant women in West Africa

BACKGROUND: Non-Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections are found in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa but little is known about their importance in pregnancy. METHODS: Blood samples were collected at first antenatal clinic attendance from 2526 women enrolled in a trial of intermittent screening and treatment of malaria in pregnancy (ISTp) versus intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) conducted in Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana and Mali. DNA was extracted from blood spots and tested for P. falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale using a nested PCR test. Risk factors for a non-falciparum malaria infection were investigated and the influence of these infections on the outcome of pregnancy was determined. RESULTS: P. falciparum infection was detected frequently (overall prevalence by PCR: 38.8 %, [95 % CI 37.0, 40.8]), with a prevalence ranging from 10.8 % in The Gambia to 56.1 % in Ghana. Non-falciparum malaria infections were found only rarely (overall prevalence 1.39 % [95 % CI 1.00, 1.92]), ranging from 0.17 % in the Gambia to 3.81 % in Mali. Ten non-falciparum mono-infections and 25 mixed falciparum and non-falciparum infections were found. P. malariae was the most frequent non-falciparum infection identified; P. vivax was detected only in Mali. Only four of the non-falciparum mono-infections were detected by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test. Recruitment during the late rainy season and low socio-economic status were associated with an increased risk of non-falciparum malaria as well as falciparum malaria. The outcome of pregnancy did not differ between women with a non-falciparum malaria infection and those who were not infected with malaria at first ANC attendance. CONCLUSIONS: Non-falciparum infections were infrequent in the populations studied, rarely detected when present as a mono-infection and unlikely to have had an important impact on the outcome of pregnancy in the communities studied due to the small number of women infected with non-falciparum parasites

Non-falciparum malaria infections in pregnant women in West Africa

Background Non-Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections are found in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa but little is known about their importance in pregnancy. Methods Blood samples were collected at first antenatal clinic attendance from 2526 women enrolled in a trial of intermittent screening and treatment of malaria in pregnancy (ISTp) versus intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) conducted in Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana and Mali. DNA was extracted from blood spots and tested for P. falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale using a nested PCR test. Risk factors for a non-falciparum malaria infection were investigated and the influence of these infections on the outcome of pregnancy was determined. Results P. falciparum infection was detected frequently (overall prevalence by PCR: 38.8 %, [95 % CI 37.0, 40.8]), with a prevalence ranging from 10.8 % in The Gambia to 56.1 % in Ghana. Non-falciparum malaria infections were found only rarely (overall prevalence 1.39 % [95 % CI 1.00, 1.92]), ranging from 0.17 % in the Gambia to 3.81 % in Mali. Ten non-falciparum mono-infections and 25 mixed falciparum and non-falciparum infections were found. P. malariae was the most frequent non-falciparum infection identified; P. vivax was detected only in Mali. Only four of the non-falciparum mono-infections were detected by microscopy or rapid diagnostic test. Recruitment during the late rainy season and low socio-economic status were associated with an increased risk of non-falciparum malaria as well as falciparum malaria. The outcome of pregnancy did not differ between women with a non-falciparum malaria infection and those who were not infected with malaria at first ANC attendance. Conclusions Non-falciparum infections were infrequent in the populations studied, rarely detected when present as a mono-infection and unlikely to have had an important impact on the outcome of pregnancy in the communities studied due to the small number of women infected with non-falciparum parasites