Forecasting Tunisian type 2 diabetes prevalence to 2027: validation of a simple model.

BACKGROUND: Most projections of type 2 diabetes (T2D) prevalence are simply based on demographic change (i.e. ageing). We developed a model to predict future trends in T2D prevalence in Tunisia, explicitly taking into account trends in major risk factors (obesity and smoking). This could improve assessment of policy options for prevention and health service planning. METHODS: The IMPACT T2D model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate future T2D prevalence. We developed a model for the Tunisian population from 1997 to 2027, and validated the model outputs by comparing with a subsequent T2D prevalence survey conducted in 2005. RESULTS: The model estimated that the prevalence of T2D among Tunisians aged over 25 years was 12.0% in 1997 (95% confidence intervals 9.6%-14.4%), increasing to 15.1% (12.5%-17.4%) in 2005. Between 1997 and 2005, observed prevalence in men increased from 13.5% to 16.1% and in women from 12.9% to 14.1%. The model forecast for a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2027 (26.6% overall, 28.6% in men and 24.7% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declined by 20% in the 10 years from 2013, and if smoking decreased by 20% over 10 years from 2009, a 3.3% reduction in T2D prevalence could be achieved in 2027 (2.5% in men and 4.1% in women). CONCLUSIONS: This innovative model provides a reasonably close estimate of T2D prevalence for Tunisia over the 1997-2027 period. Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge. Our model predicts that this burden will increase significantly in the next two decades. Tackling obesity, smoking and other T2D risk factors thus needs urgent action. Tunisian decision makers have therefore defined two strategies: obesity reduction and tobacco control. Responses will be evaluated in future population surveys

Effects of phlebotomy-induced reduction of body iron stores on metabolic syndrome: results from a randomized clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Metabolic syndrome (METS) is an increasingly prevalent but poorly understood clinical condition characterized by insulin resistance, glucose intolerance, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and obesity. Increased oxidative stress catalyzed by accumulation of iron in excess of physiologic requirements has been implicated in the pathogenesis of METS, but the relationships between cause and effect remain uncertain. We tested the hypothesis that phlebotomy-induced reduction of body iron stores would alter the clinical presentation of METS, using a randomized trial.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In a randomized, controlled, single-blind clinical trial, 64 patients with METS were randomly assigned to iron reduction by phlebotomy (n = 33) or to a control group (n = 31), which was offered phlebotomy at the end of the study (waiting-list design). The iron-reduction patients had 300 ml of blood removed at entry and between 250 and 500 ml removed after 4 weeks, depending on ferritin levels at study entry. Primary outcomes were change in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and insulin sensitivity as measured by Homeostatic Model Assessment (HOMA) index after 6 weeks. Secondary outcomes included HbA1c, plasma glucose, blood lipids, and heart rate (HR).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>SBP decreased from 148.5 ± 12.3 mmHg to 130.5 ± 11.8 mmHg in the phlebotomy group, and from 144.7 ± 14.4 mmHg to 143.8 ± 11.9 mmHg in the control group (difference -16.6 mmHg; 95% CI -20.7 to -12.5; <it>P </it>< 0.001). No significant effect on HOMA index was seen. With regard to secondary outcomes, blood glucose, HbA1c, low-density lipoprotein/high-density lipoprotein ratio, and HR were significantly decreased by phlebotomy. Changes in BP and HOMA index correlated with ferritin reduction.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In patients with METS, phlebotomy, with consecutive reduction of body iron stores, lowered BP and resulted in improvements in markers of cardiovascular risk and glycemic control. Blood donation may have beneficial effects for blood donors with METS.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01328210">NCT01328210</a></p> <p>Please see related article: <url>http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/10/53</url></p

The Contribution of Occult Precipitation to Nutrient Deposition on the West Coast of South Africa

The Strandveld mediterranean-ecosystem of the west coast of South Africa supports floristically diverse vegetation growing on mostly nutrient-poor aeolian sands and extending from the Atlantic Ocean tens of kilometers inland. The cold Benguela current upwelling interacts with warm onshore southerly winds in summer causing coastal fogs in this region. We hypothesized that fog and other forms of occult precipitation contribute moisture and nutrients to the vegetation. We measured occult precipitation over one year along a transect running inland in the direction of the prevailing wind and compared the nutrient concentrations with those in rainwater. Occult deposition rates of P, N, K, Mg, Ca, Na, Al and Fe all decreased with distance from the ocean. Furthermore, ratios of cations to Na were similar to those of seawater, suggesting a marine origin for these. In contrast, N and P ratios in occult precipitation were higher than in seawater. We speculate that this is due to marine foam contributing to occult precipitation. Nutrient loss in leaf litter from dominant shrub species was measured to indicate nutrient demand. We estimated that occult precipitation could meet the demand of the dominant shrubby species for annual N, P, K and Ca. Of these species, those with small leaves intercepted more moisture and nutrients than those with larger leaves and could take up foliar deposits of glycine, NO3-, NH4 + and Li (as tracer for K) through leaf surfaces. We conclude that occult deposition together with rainfall deposition are potentially important nutrient and moisture sources for the Strandveld vegetation that contribute to this vegetation being floristically distinct from neighbouring nutrient-poor Fynbos vegetation

Preconditioning with Physiological Levels of Ethanol Protect Kidney against Ischemia/Reperfusion Injury by Modulating Oxidative Stress

Oxidative stress due to excessive production of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and subsequent lipid peroxidation plays a critical role in renal ischemia/reperfusion (IR) injury. The purpose of current study is to demonstrate the effect of antecedent ethanol exposure on IR-induced renal injury by modulation of oxidative stress.Bilateral renal warm IR was induced in male C57BL/6 mice after ethanol or saline administration. Blood ethanol concentration, kidney function, histological damage, inflammatory infiltration, cytokine production, oxidative stress, antioxidant capacity and Aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) enzymatic activity were assessed to evaluate the impact of antecedent ethanol exposure on IR-induced renal injury.After bilateral kidney ischemia, mice preconditioned with physiological levels of ethanol displayed significantly preserved renal function along with less histological tubular damage as manifested by the reduced inflammatory infiltration and cytokine production. Mechanistic studies revealed that precondition of mice with physiological levels of ethanol 3 h before IR induction enhanced antioxidant capacity characterized by significantly higher superoxidase dismutase (SOD) activities. Our studies further demonstrated that ethanol pretreatment specifically increased ALDH2 activity, which then suppressed lipid peroxidation by promoting the detoxification of Malondialdehyde (MDA) and 4-hydroxynonenal (HNE).Our results provide first line of evidence indicating that antecedent ethanol exposure can provide protection for kidneys against IR-induced injury by enhancing antioxidant capacity and preventing lipid peroxidation. Therefore, ethanol precondition and ectopic ALDH2 activation could be potential therapeutic approaches to prevent renal IR injury relevant to various clinical conditions

Iron Behaving Badly: Inappropriate Iron Chelation as a Major Contributor to the Aetiology of Vascular and Other Progressive Inflammatory and Degenerative Diseases

The production of peroxide and superoxide is an inevitable consequence of aerobic metabolism, and while these particular "reactive oxygen species" (ROSs) can exhibit a number of biological effects, they are not of themselves excessively reactive and thus they are not especially damaging at physiological concentrations. However, their reactions with poorly liganded iron species can lead to the catalytic production of the very reactive and dangerous hydroxyl radical, which is exceptionally damaging, and a major cause of chronic inflammation. We review the considerable and wide-ranging evidence for the involvement of this combination of (su)peroxide and poorly liganded iron in a large number of physiological and indeed pathological processes and inflammatory disorders, especially those involving the progressive degradation of cellular and organismal performance. These diseases share a great many similarities and thus might be considered to have a common cause (i.e. iron-catalysed free radical and especially hydroxyl radical generation). The studies reviewed include those focused on a series of cardiovascular, metabolic and neurological diseases, where iron can be found at the sites of plaques and lesions, as well as studies showing the significance of iron to aging and longevity. The effective chelation of iron by natural or synthetic ligands is thus of major physiological (and potentially therapeutic) importance. As systems properties, we need to recognise that physiological observables have multiple molecular causes, and studying them in isolation leads to inconsistent patterns of apparent causality when it is the simultaneous combination of multiple factors that is responsible. This explains, for instance, the decidedly mixed effects of antioxidants that have been observed, etc...Comment: 159 pages, including 9 Figs and 2184 reference