Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources

Aim of our study is to quantify the impacts of climate change on hydrology in the large river basins in Germany (Rhine, Elbe, Danube, Weser and Ems) and thereby giving the range of impact uncertainty created by the most recent regional climate projections. The study shows mainly results for the A1B SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenario by comparing the reference period 1981–2010 and the scenario periods 2031–2060 and 2061–2090 and using climate projections of a combination of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 12 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) as climate driver. The outcome is compared against impacts driven by a more recent RCP (Representative Emission Pathways) scenario by using data of a statistical RCM. The results indicate that more robust conclusions can be drawn for some river basins, especially the Rhine and Danube basins, while diversity of results leads to higher uncertainty in the other river basins. The results also show that hydrology is very sensitive to changes in climate and effects of a general increase in precipitation can even be over-compensated by an increase in evapotranspiration. The decrease of runoff in late summer shown in most results can be an indicator for more pronounced droughts under scenario conditions

Release of water trapped in damaged fuel subsurface voids

Uranium metal reacts actively with water to produce uranium oxide and hydrogen gas, and radiolysis of water also produces hydrogen in fuel containers. These fuel reactivities increase the potential for over pressurization and pyrophoric events during storage. Flow rate calculations were undertaken to examine the problem of the release of water trapped in subsurface voids during the vacuum drying for damaged fuel. To calculate the flow rates of the water vapor, five flow models are developed based on the kinetic theory of gases. The difference between the vapor pressure and the operating pressure provides the driving force for crevice water removal. Gas flow is divided into three types: viscous flow, molecular flow, and slip flow in the transition range. These calculations were focused on assessing that measured moisture release from the whole element drying studies currently in progress includes any water that may be trapped in subsurface voids

Pressurization of whole element canister during staging

An analytical model was developed to estimate the buildup of gas pressure for a single outer element in a hot cell test container for a post cold vacuum drying staging/storage test. This model considers various sources of gas generation and gas consumption as a function of time. In a canister containing spent nuclear fuel, hydrogen is generated from the reactions of uranium with free water or hydrated water, hydride decomposition, and radiolysis. The canister pressurization model predicts a stable pressure and a peak temperature during staging, with an assumption that a fuel element contains 40 gm of corrosion products and a decay heat of 2.07 or 1.06 Watts. Calculations were also performed on constant temperature tests for fuel elements containing varied amounts of sludge tested at 150, 125, 105, and 85 C. The pressurization model will be used to evaluate test results obtained from post-drying testing on whole fuel elements

Effects of Climate Change on the Hydrological Cycle in Central and Eastern Europe

For the management of protected areas knowledge about the water regime plays a very important role, in particular in areas with lakes, wetlands, marches or floodplains. The local hydrological conditions depend widely on temporal and spatial variations of the main components of the hydrologic cycle and physiographic conditions on site. To preserve a favourable conservation status under changing climatic conditions park managers require information about potential impacts of climate change in their area. The following chapter provides an overview of how climate change affects the hydrological regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. The hydrological impacts for the protected areas are area-specific and vary from region to region. Generally, an increase in temperature enhances the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus, leads to an intensification of the hydrological cycle. Key changes in the hydrological system include alterations in the seasonal distribution, magnitude and duration of precipitation and evapotranspiration. This may lead to changes in the water storage, surface runoff, soil moisture and seasonal snow packs as well as to modifications in the mass balance of Central European glaciers. Partly, water resources management can help to counterbalance effects of climate change on stream flow and water availability

Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions-a case study for Germany

The aim of the study is to analyze and discuss possible climate change impacts on flood damages in Germany. The study was initiated and supported by the German insurance sector whereby the main goal was to identify general climate-related trends in flood hazard and damages and to explore sensitivity of results to climate scenario uncertainty. The study makes use of climate scenarios regionalized for the main river basins in Germany. A hydrological model (SWIM) that had been calibrated and validated for the main river gauges, was applied to transform these scenarios into discharge for more than 5000 river reaches. Extreme value distribution has been fitted to the time series of river discharge to derive the flood frequency statistics. The hydrological results for each river reach have been linked using the flood statistics to related damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association, considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The result is that, under the specific scenario conditions, a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany in future, warmer, climate

Comparative immunoprofiling of polymyositis and dermatomyositis muscles

The morphological, immunohistochemical, and immunopathological analyses of muscle biopsy are essential for the diagnosis of idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (IIMs). However, they are also one of the most common causes of misdiagnosis. Although several diagnostic criteria have been proposed for the diagnosis of IIMs, misdiagnosis still remains common in clinical practice. The present study aims to characterize the inflammatory profile of IIMs, including the expression of MHC-I, MHC-II, MAC and infiltrating cells. We also investigated the sensitivity and specificity of MHC-I and MHC-II immunostaining for the diagnosis of IIMs. We found that the expression of MHC-I and MHC-II was both higher in IIMs than in non-inflammatory myopathies (NIMs). The distribution of MHC-I in IIMs is different from that of MHC-II. MHC-I is mainly located in the sarcoplasms, while MHC-II is located mostly on the sarcolemmas. Moreover, our findings suggest that MAC may be a potential marker to diagnose DM, and the combination of MHC-I and MHC-II immunostaining results in a higher sensitivity and specificity for IIM diagnosis, especially for DM. In addition, infiltrating cells in PM were mainly CD8+ cells, but we found in DM and NIMs they were primarily CD4+ cells, which is consistent with previous studies. Lastly, glucocorticoid treatment and disease duration have little effect on the MHC-I and MHC-II expression pattern. Our findings indicate that the immunostaining of inflammatory markers such as MHC-I, MHC-II, CD4, CD8, CD303 and MAC are of diagnostic value for IIMs regardless of the immunosuppression regime and disease duration

Possible Role of Protein CPG15 in Hippocampal Mossy Fiber Sprouting Under Conditions of Pentylenetetrazole Kindling

We examined changes in expression of the candidate plasticity-related gene 15 (CPG15) in the dentate gyrus (DG) and hippocampal CA3 region in the pentylenetetrazole (PTZ) kindling model and investigated the role of this gene in the phenomenon of mossy fiber sprouting (MFS). Experimental rats were divided into the control and PTZ groups. The epileptic model was created by intraperitoneal PTZ injection, while control rats were injected with saline. At days 3, 7, 14, 28, and 42 after the first PTZ injection, Timm staining was scored in the CA3 hippocampal area, and a product of CPG15 (protein CPG15) was labeled in the DG stratum granulosum and in the CA3 area using immunohistochemistry. The Timm scores in the CA3 region increased gradually from day 3 and were significantly higher than those in the control within the subsequent period. The level of CPG15 protein in the DG and CA3 area decreased gradually until day 14 and returned to the normal level at day 28. The results obtained indicate, for the first time, that CPG15 may be involved in the process of MFS. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying this phenomenon may lead to successful therapeutic interventions that limit epileptogenesis.Ми досліджували зміни експресії продукту гена CPG15 у зубчастій звивині (ЗЗ) та зоні CA3 гіпокампа в моделі пентилентетразолового (ПТЗ-) кіндлінгу та можливу роль цього гена у феномені спрутингу моховитих волокон (СМВ). Піддослідні щури були поділені на групи контролю та ПТЗ-кіндлінгу. Модель епілепсії створювали за допомогою внутрішньоочеревинних ін’єкцій пентилентетразолу (ПТЗ); контрольним щурам ін’єкували фізіологічний розчин. На третю, сьому, 14-ту, 28-му та 42-гу добу після першої ін’єкції ПТЗ оцінювали забарвлення, за Тіммом, у зоні CA3. Локалізацію протеїну CPG15 у stratum granulosum ЗЗ та зоні CA3 гіпокампа визначали з використанням імуногістохімічної методики. Інтенсивність забарвлення, за Тіммом, у зоні CA3 поступово збільшувалася починаючи з третьої доби та була вірогідно вищою, ніж така в контролі, протягом усього наступного періоду. Рівень протеїну CPG15 у ЗЗ та полі CA3 поступово зменшувався до 14-ї доби та повертався до нормальних значень на 28-му добу. Отримані результати вперше вказують на те, що CPG15 може бути залученим у процес СМВ. Зрозуміння молекулярних механізмів, на яких базується цей феномен, може призвести до розробки успішних терапевтичних заходів, котрі обмежували б епілептогенез

Comparing impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large African river basins

This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data. For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach

One simulation, different conclusions—the baseline period makes the difference!

The choice of the baseline period, intentionally chosen or not, as a reference for assessing future changes of any projected variable can play an important role for the resulting statement. In regional climate impact studies, well-established or arbitrarily chosen baselines are often used without being questioned. Here we investigated the effects of different baseline periods on the interpretation of discharge simulations from eight river basins in the period 1960–2099. The simulations were forced by four bias-adjusted and downscaled Global Climate Modelsunder two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). To systematically evaluate how far the choice of different baselines impacts the simulation results, we developed a similarity index that compares two time series of projected changes. The results show that 25% of the analyzed simulations are sensitive to the choice of the baseline period under RCP 2.6 and 32% under RCP 8.5. In extreme cases, change signals of two time series show opposite trends. This has serious consequences for key messages drawn from a basin-scale climate impact study. To address this problem, an algorithm was developed to identify flexible baseline periods for each simulation individually, which better represent the statistical properties of a given historical period

Effect of stress-triaxiality on void growth in dynamic fracture of metals: a molecular dynamics study

The effect of stress-triaxiality on growth of a void in a three dimensional single-crystal face-centered-cubic (FCC) lattice has been studied. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations using an embedded-atom (EAM) potential for copper have been performed at room temperature and using strain controlling with high strain rates ranging from 10^7/sec to 10^10/sec. Strain-rates of these magnitudes can be studied experimentally, e.g. using shock waves induced by laser ablation. Void growth has been simulated in three different conditions, namely uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial expansion. The response of the system in the three cases have been compared in terms of the void growth rate, the detailed void shape evolution, and the stress-strain behavior including the development of plastic strain. Also macroscopic observables as plastic work and porosity have been computed from the atomistic level. The stress thresholds for void growth are found to be comparable with spall strength values determined by dynamic fracture experiments. The conventional macroscopic assumption that the mean plastic strain results from the growth of the void is validated. The evolution of the system in the uniaxial case is found to exhibit four different regimes: elastic expansion; plastic yielding, when the mean stress is nearly constant, but the stress-triaxiality increases rapidly together with exponential growth of the void; saturation of the stress-triaxiality; and finally the failure.Comment: 35 figures, which are small (and blurry) due to the space limitations; submitted (with original figures) to Physical Review B. Final versio