Spatiotemporal modeling of air pollutant concentrations in Germany using machine learning

Machine learning (ML) models are becoming a meaningful tool for modeling air pollutant concentrations. ML models are capable of learning and modeling complex nonlinear interactions between variables, and they require less computational effort than chemical transport models (CTMs). In this study, we used gradient-boosted tree (GBT) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP; neural network) algorithms to model near-surface nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) concentrations over Germany at 0.1∘ spatial resolution and daily intervals. We trained the ML models using TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) satellite column measurements combined with information on emission sources, air pollutant precursors, and meteorology as feature variables. We found that the trained GBT model for NO2 and O3 explained a major portion of the observed concentrations (R2=0.68–0.88 and RMSE=4.77–8.67 µg m−3; R2=0.74–0.92 and RMSE=8.53–13.2 µg m−3, respectively). The trained MLP model performed worse than the trained GBT model for both NO2 and O3 (R2=0.46–0.82 and R2=0.42–0.9, respectively). Our NO2 GBT model outperforms the CAMS model, a data-assimilated CTM but slightly underperforms for O3. However, our NO2 and O3 ML models require less computational effort than CTM. Therefore, we can analyze people's exposure to near-surface NO2 and O3 with significantly less effort. During the study period (30 April 2018 and 1 July 2021), it was found that around 36 % of people lived in locations where the World Health Organization (WHO) NO2 limit was exceeded for more than 25 % of the days during the study period, while 90 % of the population resided in areas where the WHO O3 limit was surpassed for over 25 % of the study days. Although metropolitan areas had high NO2 concentrations, rural areas, particularly in southern Germany, had high O3 concentrations. Furthermore, our ML models can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation policies. Near-surface NO2 and O3 concentration changes during the 2020 COVID-19 lockdown period over Germany were indeed reproduced by the GBT model, with meteorology-normalized near-surface NO2 having significantly decreased (by 23±5.3 %) and meteorology-normalized near-surface O3 having slightly increased (by 1±4.6 %) over 10 major German metropolitan areas when compared to 2019. Finally, our O3 GBT model is highly transferable to neighboring countries and locations where no measurements are available (R2=0.87–0.94), whereas our NO2 GBT model is moderately transferable (R2=0.32–0.64).</p

Revisiting the reaction of dicarbonyls in aerosol proxy solutions containing ammonia: the case of butenedial

Reactions in aqueous solutions containing dicarbonyls (especially the α-dicarbonyls methylglyoxal, glyoxal, and biacetyl) and reduced nitrogen (NHx) have been studied extensively. It has been proposed that accretion reactions from dicarbonyls and NHx could be a source of particulate matter and brown carbon in the atmosphere and therefore have direct implications for human health and climate. Other dicarbonyls, such as the 1,4-unsaturated dialdehyde butenedial, are also produced from the atmospheric oxidation of volatile organic compounds, especially aromatics and furans, but their aqueous-phase reactions with NHx have not been characterized. In this work, we determine a pH-dependent mechanism of butenedial reactions in aqueous solutions with NHx that is compared to α-dicarbonyls, in particular the dialdehyde glyoxal. Similar to glyoxal, butenedial is strongly hydrated in aqueous solutions. Butenedial reaction with NHx also produces nitrogen-containing rings and leads to accretion reactions that form brown carbon. Despite glyoxal and butenedial both being dialdehydes, butenedial is observed to have three significant differences in its chemical behavior: (1) as previously shown, butenedial does not substantially form acetal oligomers, (2) the butenedial/OH− reaction leads to light-absorbing compounds, and (3) the butenedial/NHx reaction is fast and first order in the dialdehyde. Building off of a complementary study on butenedial gas-particle partitioning, we suggest that the behavior of other reactive dialdehydes and dicarbonyls may not always be adequately predicted by α-dicarbonyls, even though their dominant functionalities are closely related. The carbon skeleton (e.g., its hydrophobicity, length, and bond structure) also governs the fate and climate-relevant properties of dicarbonyls in the atmosphere. If other dicarbonyls behave like butenedial, their reaction with NHx could constitute a regional source of brown carbon to the atmosphere.</p

Glyoxal uptake on ammonium sulphate seed aerosol: reaction products and reversibility of uptake under dark and irradiated conditions

Chamber studies of glyoxal uptake onto ammonium sulphate aerosol were performed under dark and irradiated conditions to gain further insight into processes controlling glyoxal uptake onto ambient aerosol. Organic fragments from glyoxal dimers and trimers were observed within the aerosol under dark and irradiated conditions. Glyoxal monomers and oligomers were the dominant organic compounds formed under the conditions of this study; glyoxal oligomer formation and overall organic growth were found to be reversible under dark conditions. Analysis of high-resolution time-of-flight aerosol mass spectra provides evidence for irreversible formation of carbon-nitrogen (C-N) compounds in the aerosol. We have identified 1H-imidazole-2-carboxaldehyde as one C-N product. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first time C-N compounds resulting from condensed phase reactions with ammonium sulphate seed have been detected in aerosol. Organosulphates were not detected under dark conditions. However, active photochemistry was found to occur within aerosol during irradiated experiments. Carboxylic acids and organic esters were identified within the aerosol. An organosulphate, which had been previously assigned as glyoxal sulphate in ambient samples and chamber studies of isoprene oxidation, was observed only in the irradiated experiments. Comparison with a laboratory synthesized standard and chemical considerations strongly suggest that this organosulphate is glycolic acid sulphate, an isomer of the previously proposed glyoxal sulphate. Our study shows that reversibility of glyoxal uptake should be taken into account in SOA models and also demonstrates the need for further investigation of C-N compound formation and photochemical processes, in particular organosulphate formation

Yields of oxidized volatile organic compounds during the OH radical initiated oxidation of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone, and methacrolein under high-NO_x conditions

We present first-generation and total production yields of glyoxal, methylglyoxal, glycolaldehyde, and hydroxyacetone from the oxidation of isoprene, methyl vinyl ketone (MVK), and methacrolein (MACR) with OH under high NO_x conditions. Several of these first-generation yields are not included in commonly used chemical mechanisms, such as the Leeds Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) v. 3.2. The first-generation yield of glyoxal from isoprene was determined to be 2.1 (±0.6)%. Inclusion of first-generation production of glyoxal, glycolaldehyde and hydroxyacetone from isoprene greatly improves performance of an MCM based model during the initial part of the experiments. In order to further improve performance of the MCM based model, higher generation glyoxal production was reduced by lowering the first-generation yield of glyoxal from C5 hydroxycarbonyls. The results suggest that glyoxal production from reaction of OH with isoprene under high NO_x conditions can be approximated by inclusion of a first-generation production term together with secondary production only via glycolaldehyde. Analogously, methylglyoxal production can be approximated by a first-generation production term from isoprene, and secondary production via MVK, MACR and hydroxyacetone. The first-generation yields reported here correspond to less than 5% of the total oxidized yield from isoprene and thus only have a small effect on the fate of isoprene. However, due to the abundance of isoprene, the combination of first-generation yields and reduced higher generation production of glyoxal from C5 hydroxycarbonyls is important for models that include the production of the small organic molecules from isoprene

Analysis of photochemical and dark glyoxal uptake: Implications for SOA formation

The dependence of glyoxal uptake onto deliquesced ammonium sulfate seed aerosol was studied under photochemical (light + hydroxyl radical (OH)) and dark conditions. In this study, the chemical composition of aerosol formed from glyoxal is identical in the presence or absence of OH. In addition, there was no observed OH dependence on either glyoxal uptake or glyoxal-driven aerosol growth for this study. These findings demonstrate that, for the system used here, glyoxal uptake is not affected by the presence of OH. In combination with previous studies, this shows that the exact nature of the type of seed aerosol, in particular the presence of a coating, has a large influence on fast photochemical uptake of glyoxal. Due to the challenge of relating this seed aerosol dependence to ambient conditions, this work highlights the resulting difficulty in quantitatively including SOA formation from glyoxal in models

Intercomparison of Hantzsch and fiber-laser-induced-fluorescence formaldehyde measurements

Two gas-phase formaldehyde (HCHO) measurement techniques, a modified commercial wet-chemical instrument based on Hantzsch fluorimetry and a custom-built instrument based on fiber laser-induced fluorescence (FILIF), were deployed at the atmospheric simulation chamber SAPHIR (Simulation of Atmospheric PHotochemistry In a large Reaction Chamber) to compare the instruments' performances under a range of conditions. Thermolysis of para-HCHO and ozonolysis of 1-butene were used as HCHO sources, allowing for calculations of theoretical HCHO mixing ratios. Calculated HCHO mixing ratios are compared to measurements, and the two measurements are also compared. Experiments were repeated under dry and humid conditions (RH 60%) to investigate the possibility of a water artifact in the FILIF measurements. The ozonolysis of 1-butene also allowed for the investigation of an ozone artifact seen in some Hantzsch measurements in previous intercomparisons. Results show that under all conditions the two techniques are well correlated (R2 ≥ 0.997), and linear regression statistics show measurements agree with within stated uncertainty (15% FILIF + 5% Hantzsch). No water or ozone artifacts are identified. While a slight curvature is observed in some Hantzsch vs. FILIF regressions, the potential for variable instrument sensitivity cannot be attributed to a single instrument at this time. Measurements at low concentrations highlight the need for a secondary method for testing the purity of air used in instrument zeroing and the need for further FILIF White cell outgassing experiments

A comprehensive organic nitrate chemistry: insights into the lifetime of atmospheric organic nitrates

Organic nitrate chemistry is the primary control over the lifetime of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in rural and remote continental locations. As NOx emissions decrease, organic nitrate chemistry becomes increasingly important to urban air quality. However, the lifetime of individual organic nitrates and the reactions that lead to their production and removal remain relatively poorly constrained, causing organic nitrates to be poorly represented by models. Guided by recent laboratory and field studies, we developed a detailed gas-phase chemical mechanism representing most of the important individual organic nitrates. We use this mechanism within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to describe the role of organic nitrates in nitrogen oxide chemistry and in comparisons to observations. We find the daytime lifetime of total organic nitrates with respect to all loss mechanisms to be 2.6&thinsp;h in the model. This is consistent with analyses of observations at a rural site in central Alabama during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) in summer 2013. The lifetime of the first-generation organic nitrates is  ∼ 2&thinsp;h versus the 3.2&thinsp;h lifetime of secondary nitrates produced by oxidation of the first-generation nitrates. The different generations are subject to different losses, with dry deposition to the surface being the dominant loss process for the second-generation organic nitrates and chemical loss being dominant for the first-generation organic nitrates. Removal by hydrolysis is found to be responsible for the loss of  ∼ 30&thinsp;&thinsp;% of the total organic nitrate pool.</p

Evidence for ambient dark aqueous SOA formation in the Po Valley, Italy

Laboratory experiments suggest that water-soluble products from the gas-phase oxidation of volatile organic compounds can partition into atmospheric waters where they are further oxidized to form low volatility products, providing an alternative route for oxidation in addition to further oxidation in the gas phase. These products can remain in the particle phase after water evaporation, forming what is termed as aqueous secondary organic aerosol (aqSOA). However, few studies have attempted to observe ambient aqSOA. Therefore, a suite of measurements, including near-real-time WSOC (water-soluble organic carbon), inorganic anions/cations, organic acids, and gas-phase glyoxal, were made during the PEGASOS (Pan-European Gas-AeroSOls-climate interaction Study) 2012 campaign in the Po Valley, Italy, to search for evidence of aqSOA. Our analysis focused on four periods: Period A on 19–21 June, Period B on 30 June and 1–2 July, Period C on 3–5 July, and Period D on 6–7 July to represent the first (Period A) and second (Periods B, C, and D) halves of the study. These periods were picked to cover varying levels of WSOC and aerosol liquid water. In addition, back trajectory analysis suggested all sites sampled similar air masses on a given day. The data collected during both periods were divided into times of increasing relative humidity (RH) and decreasing RH, with the aim of diminishing the influence of dilution and mixing on SOA concentrations and other measured variables. Evidence for local aqSOA formation was only observed during Period A. When this occurred, there was a correlation of WSOC with organic aerosol (R2 = 0.84), aerosol liquid water (R2 = 0.65), RH (R2 = 0.39), and aerosol nitrate (R2 = 0.66). Additionally, this was only observed during times of increasing RH, which coincided with dark conditions. Comparisons of WSOC with oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) factors, determined from application of positive matrix factorization analysis on the aerosol mass spectrometer observations of the submicron non-refractory organic particle composition, suggested that the WSOC differed in the two halves of the study (Period A WSOC vs. OOA-2 R2 = 0.83 and OOA-4 R2 = 0.04, whereas Period C WSOC vs. OOA-2 R2 = 0.03 and OOA-4 R2 = 0.64). OOA-2 had a high O ∕ C (oxygen ∕ carbon) ratio of 0.77, providing evidence that aqueous processing was occurring during Period A. Key factors of local aqSOA production during Period A appear to include air mass stagnation, which allows aqSOA precursors to accumulate in the region; the formation of substantial local particulate nitrate during the overnight hours, which enhances water uptake by the aerosol; and the presence of significant amounts of ammonia, which may contribute to ammonium nitrate formation and subsequent water uptake and/or play a more direct role in the aqSOA chemistry

Observational Constraints on Glyoxal Production from Isoprene Oxidation and Its Contribution to Organic Aerosol over the Southeast United States

We use a 0-D photochemical box model and a 3-D global chemistry-climate model, combined with observations from the NOAA Southeast Nexus (SENEX) aircraft campaign, to understand the sources and sinks of glyoxal over the Southeast United States. Box model simulations suggest a large difference in glyoxal production among three isoprene oxidation mechanisms (AM3ST, AM3B, and Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) v3.3.1). These mechanisms are then implemented into a 3-D global chemistry-climate model. Comparison with field observations shows that the average vertical profile of glyoxal is best reproduced by AM3ST with an effective reactive uptake coefficient gamma(sub glyx) of 2 x 10(exp -3) and AM3B without heterogeneous loss of glyoxal. The two mechanisms lead to 0-0.8micrograms m(exp -3) secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from glyoxal in the boundary layer of the Southeast U.S. in summer. We consider this to be the lower limit for the contribution of glyoxal to SOA, as other sources of glyoxal other than isoprene are not included in our model. In addition, we find that AM3B shows better agreement on both formaldehyde and the correlation between glyoxal and formaldehyde (RGF[GLYX]/[HCHO]), resulting from the suppression of delta-isoprene peroxy radicals (delta-ISOPO2). We also find that MCM v3.3.1 may underestimate glyoxal production from isoprene oxidation, in part due to an underestimated yield from the reaction of isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX) peroxy radicals with HO2. Our work highlights that the gas-phase production of glyoxal represents a large uncertainty in quantifying its contribution to SOA

Ozone production chemistry in the presence of urban plumes

Ozone pollution affects human health, especially in urban areas on hot sunny days. Its basic photochemistry has been known for decades and yet it is still not possible to correctly predict the high ozone levels that are the greatest threat. The CalNex_SJV study in Bakersfield CA in May/June 2010 provided an opportunity to examine ozone photochemistry in an urban area surrounded by agriculture. The measurement suite included hydroxyl (OH), hydroperoxyl (HO_2), and OH reactivity, which are compared with the output of a photochemical box model. While the agreement is generally within combined uncertainties, measured HO2 far exceeds modeled HO_2 in NO_x-rich plumes. OH production and loss do not balance as they should in the morning, and the ozone production calculated with measured HO_2 is a decade greater than that calculated with modeled HO_2 when NO levels are high. Calculated ozone production using measured HO2 is twice that using modeled HO_2, but this difference in calculated ozone production has minimal impact on the assessment of NOx-sensitivity or VOC-sensitivity for midday ozone production. Evidence from this study indicates that this important discrepancy is not due to the HO_2 measurement or to the sampling of transported plumes but instead to either emissions of unknown organic species that accompany the NO emissions or unknown photochemistry involving nitrogen oxides and hydrogen oxides, possibly the hypothesized reaction OH + NO + O_2 → HO_2 + NO_2