Evaluation of random forest and ensemble methods at predicting complications following cardiac surgery

Cardiac patients undergoing surgery face increased risk of postoperative complications, due to a combination of factors, including higher risk surgery, their age at time of surgery and the presence of co-morbid conditions. They will therefore require high levels of care and clinical resources throughout their perioperative journey (i.e. before, during and after surgery). Although surgical mortality rates in the UK have remained low, postoperative complications on the other hand are common and can have a significant impact on patients’ quality of life, increase hospital length of stay and healthcare costs. In this study we used and compared several machine learning methods – random forest, AdaBoost, gradient boosting model and stacking – to predict severe postoperative complications after cardiac surgery based on preoperative variables obtained from a surgical database of a large acute care hospital in Scotland. Our results show that AdaBoost has the best overall performance (AUC = 0.731), and also outperforms EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II in other studies predicting postoperative complications. Random forest (Sensitivity = 0.852, negative predictive value = 0.923), however, and gradient boosting model (Sensitivity = 0.875 and negative predictive value = 0.920) have the best performance at predicting severe postoperative complications based on sensitivity and negative predictive value

Agents in decentralised information ecosystems: the DIET approach

The complexity of the current global information infrastructure requires novel means of understanding and exploiting the dynamics of information. One means may be through the concept of an information ecosystem. An information ecosystem is analo gous to a natural ecosystem in which there are flo ws of materials and energy analo gous to information flow between many interacting individuals. This paper describes a multi-agent platform, DIET (Decentralised Information Ecosystem Technologies) that can be used to implement open, robust, adaptive and scalable ecosystem-inspired systems. We describe the design principles of the DIET software architecture, and present a simple example application based upon it. We go on to consider how the DIET system can be used to develop information brokering agents, and how these can contribute to the implementation of economic interactions between agents, as well as identifying some open questions relating to research in these areas. In this way we show the capacity of the DIET system to support applications using information agents.Future and Emerging Technologies arm of the IST Programme of the European Union, under the FET Proactive Initiative – Universal Information Ecosystems (FET, 1999), through project DIET (IST -1999-10088), BTexaCT Intelligent Systems Laboratory for stimulating discussion and comment

Auditory-inspired morphological processing of speech spectrograms: applications in automatic speech recognition and speech enhancement

New auditory-inspired speech processing methods are presented in this paper, combining spectral subtraction and two-dimensional non-linear filtering techniques originally conceived for image processing purposes. In particular, mathematical morphology operations, like erosion and dilation, are applied to noisy speech spectrograms using specifically designed structuring elements inspired in the masking properties of the human auditory system. This is effectively complemented with a pre-processing stage including the conventional spectral subtraction procedure and auditory filterbanks. These methods were tested in both speech enhancement and automatic speech recognition tasks. For the first, time-frequency anisotropic structuring elements over grey-scale spectrograms were found to provide a better perceptual quality than isotropic ones, revealing themselves as more appropriate—under a number of perceptual quality estimation measures and several signal-to-noise ratios on the Aurora database—for retaining the structure of speech while removing background noise. For the second, the combination of Spectral Subtraction and auditory-inspired Morphological Filtering was found to improve recognition rates in a noise-contaminated version of the Isolet database.This work has been partially supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation CICYT Project No. TEC2008-06382/TEC.Publicad

InterMediActor: an Environment for Instructional Content Design Based on

This paper describes the basic architecture and functional principles of a new instructional design system called InterMediActor (IMA) and reports about its implementation state. IMA provides an environment for instructional content design, production and reuse and for student evaluation that is based on the decomposition of the learning objectives in a hierarchical structure of competences. The process of content production and learning in competence-based systems is described and the main advantages and differences in relation to other proposals, like SCORM and EML, are discussed

Evaluation of random forest and ensemble methods at predicting complications following cardiac surgery

Cardiac patients undergoing surgery face increased risk of postoperative complications, due to a combination of factors, including higher risk surgery, their age at time of surgery and the presence of co-morbid conditions. They will therefore require high levels of care and clinical resources throughout their perioperative journey (i.e. before, during and after surgery). Although surgical mortality rates in the UK have remained low, postoperative complications on the other hand are common and can have a significant impact on patients’ quality of life, increase hospital length of stay and healthcare costs. In this study we used and compared several machine learning methods – random forest, AdaBoost, gradient boosting model and stacking – to predict severe postoperative complications after cardiac surgery based on preoperative variables obtained from a surgical database of a large acute care hospital in Scotland. Our results show that AdaBoost has the best overall performance (AUC = 0.731), and also outperforms EuroSCORE and EuroSCORE II in other studies predicting postoperative complications. Random forest (Sensitivity = 0.852, negative predictive value = 0.923), however, and gradient boosting model (Sensitivity = 0.875 and negative predictive value = 0.920) have the best performance at predicting severe postoperative complications based on sensitivity and negative predictive value

Agents in decentralised information ecosystems:the diet approach

The complexity of the current global information infrastructure requires novel means of understanding and exploiting the dynamics of information. One means may be through the concept of an information ecosystem. An information ecosystem is analo gous to a natural ecosystem in which there are flo ws of materials and energy analo gous to information flow between many interacting individuals. This paper describes a multi-agent platform, DIET (Decentralised Information Ecosystem Technologies) that can be used to implement open, robust, adaptive and scalable ecosystem-inspired systems. We describe the design principles of the DIET software architecture, and present a simple example application based upon it. We go on to consider how the DIET system can be used to develop information brokering agents, and how these can contribute to the implementation of economic interactions between agents, as well as identifying some open questions relating to research in these areas. In this way we show the capacity of the DIET system to support applications using information agents.Future and Emerging Technologies arm of the IST Programme of the European Union, under the FET Proactive Initiative – Universal Information Ecosystems (FET, 1999), through project DIET (IST -1999-10088), BTexaCT Intelligent Systems Laboratory for stimulating discussion and comment