The dynamics of correlated novelties

One new thing often leads to another. Such correlated novelties are a familiar part of daily life. They are also thought to be fundamental to the evolution of biological systems, human society, and technology. By opening new possibilities, one novelty can pave the way for others in a process that Kauffman has called "expanding the adjacent possible". The dynamics of correlated novelties, however, have yet to be quantified empirically or modeled mathematically. Here we propose a simple mathematical model that mimics the process of exploring a physical, biological or conceptual space that enlarges whenever a novelty occurs. The model, a generalization of Polya's urn, predicts statistical laws for the rate at which novelties happen (analogous to Heaps' law) and for the probability distribution on the space explored (analogous to Zipf's law), as well as signatures of the hypothesized process by which one novelty sets the stage for another. We test these predictions on four data sets of human activity: the edit events of Wikipedia pages, the emergence of tags in annotation systems, the sequence of words in texts, and listening to new songs in online music catalogues. By quantifying the dynamics of correlated novelties, our results provide a starting point for a deeper understanding of the ever-expanding adjacent possible and its role in biological, linguistic, cultural, and technological evolution

A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

We introduce and discuss a minimal individual-based model for influenza dynamics. The model takes into account the effects of specific immunization against viral strains, but also infectivity randomness and the presence of a short-lived strain transcending immunity recently suggested in the literature. We show by simulations that the resulting model exhibits substitution of viral strains along the years, but that their divergence remains bounded. We also show that dropping any of these features results in a drastically different behavior, leading either to the extinction of the disease, to the proliferation of the viral strains, or to their divergence

A fast no-rejection algorithm for the Category Game

The Category Game is a multi-agent model that accounts for the emergence of shared categorization patterns in a population of interacting individuals. In the framework of the model, linguistic categories appear as long lived consensus states that are constantly reshaped and re-negotiated by the communicating individuals. It is therefore crucial to investigate the long time behavior to gain a clear understanding of the dynamics. However, it turns out that the evolution of the emerging category system is so slow, already for small populations, that such an analysis has remained so far impossible. Here, we introduce a fast no-rejection algorithm for the Category Game that disentangles the physical simulation time from the CPU time, thus opening the way for thorough analysis of the model. We verify that the new algorithm is equivalent to the old one in terms of the emerging phenomenology and we quantify the CPU performances of the two algorithms, pointing out the neat advantages offered by the no-rejection one. This technical advance has already opened the way to new investigations of the model, thus helping to shed light on the fundamental issue of categorization

Tinjauan Hak Konstitusional Terhadap Korban Bencana Lumpur Lapindo

Events ‘Lapindo Mud' in Sidoardjo shocked Indonesian society. In the case of this mud volcano, Lapindo allegedly “intentionally save ‘operational costs by not installing casing. When viewed from an economic perspective, the decision affects the installation of the casing to the costs incurred Lapindo. This case has caused harm to residents Siduardjo. This case is just one case, of cases in the field of environmental law that led to disaster for the people of Indonesia. Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia Year 1945 is to include environmental provisions in it, then followed the birth of Law Number 24 Year 2007 on Disaster Management. At the time of this disaster happened, the setting of environmental management regulated in Law Number 23 Year 1997. Are there provisions that already reflects the constitutional rights of disaster victims?Does the presence of the law could meet the challenge? How is its implementation? What about law enforcement

On the accuracy of language trees

Historical linguistics aims at inferring the most likely language phylogenetic tree starting from information concerning the evolutionary relatedness of languages. The available information are typically lists of homologous (lexical, phonological, syntactic) features or characters for many different languages. From this perspective the reconstruction of language trees is an example of inverse problems: starting from present, incomplete and often noisy, information, one aims at inferring the most likely past evolutionary history. A fundamental issue in inverse problems is the evaluation of the inference made. A standard way of dealing with this question is to generate data with artificial models in order to have full access to the evolutionary process one is going to infer. This procedure presents an intrinsic limitation: when dealing with real data sets, one typically does not know which model of evolution is the most suitable for them. A possible way out is to compare algorithmic inference with expert classifications. This is the point of view we take here by conducting a thorough survey of the accuracy of reconstruction methods as compared with the Ethnologue expert classifications. We focus in particular on state-of-the-art distance-based methods for phylogeny reconstruction using worldwide linguistic databases. In order to assess the accuracy of the inferred trees we introduce and characterize two generalizations of standard definitions of distances between trees. Based on these scores we quantify the relative performances of the distance-based algorithms considered. Further we quantify how the completeness and the coverage of the available databases affect the accuracy of the reconstruction. Finally we draw some conclusions about where the accuracy of the reconstructions in historical linguistics stands and about the leading directions to improve it.Comment: 36 pages, 14 figure

Modeling microevolution in a changing environment: The evolving quasispecies and the Diluted Champion Process

Several pathogens use evolvability as a survival strategy against acquired immunity of the host. Despite their high variability in time, some of them exhibit quite low variability within the population at any given time, a somehow paradoxical behavior often called the evolving quasispecies. In this paper we introduce a simplified model of an evolving viral population in which the effects of the acquired immunity of the host are represented by the decrease of the fitness of the corresponding viral strains, depending on the frequency of the strain in the viral population. The model exhibits evolving quasispecies behavior in a certain range of its parameters, ans suggests how punctuated evolution can be induced by a simple feedback mechanism.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures. Figures redrawn, some additional clarifications in the text. To appear in Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experimen

A note on the Guerra and Talagrand theorems for Mean Field Spin Glasses: the simple case of spherical models

The aim of this paper is to discuss the main ideas of the Talagrand proof of the Parisi Ansatz for the free-energy of Mean Field Spin Glasses with a physicist's approach. We consider the case of the spherical $p$-spin model, which has the following advantages: 1) the Parisi Ansatz takes the simple ``one step replica symmetry breaking form'', 2) the replica free-energy as a function of the order parameters is simple enough to allow for numerical maximization with arbitrary precision. We present the essential ideas of the proof, we stress its connections with the theory of effective potentials for glassy systems, and we reduce the technically more difficult part of the Talagrand's analysis to an explicit evaluation of the solution of a variational problem.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures. Added references and minor language correction