Cash limits and the control of public expenditure in the United Kingdom

This paper uses a generalisation of intervention analysis to examine quarterly data on UK public expenditure from 1963:1 to 1992:4. The aim is to test whether government policy, and particularly the introduction of cash limits, had any significant effect upon the level of real public expenditure. Four series are examined. These are for (i) central government consumption, (ii) local authority consumption, (iii) general government capital formation and (iv) transfer payments. No evidence is found of intervention effects that can be attributed to cash limits.peer-reviewe

A mechanistic investigation of the ruthenium porphyrin catalysed aziridination of olefins by aryl azides

A combination of DFT and kinetic studies suggests a mechanism for olefin aziridination by organic azides catalysed by ruthenium porphyrins

A hazard model of the probability of medical school dropout in the United Kingdom

From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness—both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein—is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons

Treatment compliance and effectiveness of a cognitive behavioural intervention for low back pain : a complier average causal effect approach to the BeST data set

Background: Group cognitive behavioural intervention (CBI) is effective in reducing low-back pain and disability in comparison to advice in primary care. The aim of this analysis was to investigate the impact of compliance on estimates of treatment effect and to identify factors associated with compliance. Methods: In this multicentre trial, 701 adults with troublesome sub-acute or chronic low-back pain were recruited from 56 general practices. Participants were randomised to advice (control n = 233) or advice plus CBI (n = 468). Compliance was specified a priori as attending a minimum of three group sessions and the individual assessment. We estimated the complier average causal effect (CACE) of treatment. Results: Comparison of the CACE estimate of the mean treatment difference to the intention-to-treat (ITT) estimate at 12 months showed a greater benefit of CBI amongst participants compliant with treatment on the Roland Morris Questionnaire (CACE: 1.6 points, 95% CI 0.51 to 2.74; ITT: 1.3 points, 95% CI 0.55 to 2.07), the Modified Von Korff disability score (CACE: 12.1 points, 95% CI 6.07 to 18.17; ITT: 8.6 points, 95% CI 4.58 to 12.64) and the Modified von Korff pain score (CACE: 10.4 points, 95% CI 4.64 to 16.10; ITT: 7.0 points, 95% CI 3.26 to 10.74). People who were non-compliant were younger and had higher pain scores at randomisation. Conclusions: Treatment compliance is important in the effectiveness of group CBI. Younger people and those with more pain are at greater risk of non-compliance

Industrial policy evaluation in the presence of spillovers

The shortage of studies on spatial spillovers of capital subsidy policies is rather surprising, considering that such policies are usually designed to generate spatial externalities. We propose a new framework that allows positive agglomeration effects to be contrasted with the negative cross-sectional substitution and the crowding-out effect. The global evaluation of the ATT and the spillover parameters shifts the spotlight from the policy effect on subsidised firms to the global effect of capital subsidy policies on the targeted territory. The empirical evaluation of a policy in Italy mainly directed towards small- and medium-sized firms shows that the impact on investments, turnover and employment is positive and large, but is negative on TFP. However, the employment growth is partially determined to the detriment of the untreated firms