Weighted verification tools to evaluate univariate and multivariate probabilistic forecasts for high-impact weather events

To mitigate the impacts associated with adverse weather conditions, meteorological services issue weather warnings to the general public. These warnings rely heavily on forecasts issued by underlying prediction systems. When deciding which prediction system(s) to utilise to construct warnings, it is important to compare systems in their ability to forecast the occurrence and severity of extreme weather events. However, evaluating forecasts for extreme events is known to be a challenging task. This is exacerbated further by the fact that high-impact weather often manifests as a result of several confounding features, a realisation that has led to considerable research on so-called compound weather events. Both univariate and multivariate methods are therefore required to evaluate forecasts for high-impact weather. In this paper, we discuss weighted verification tools, which allow particular outcomes to be emphasised during forecast evaluation. We review and compare different approaches to construct weighted scoring rules, both in a univariate and multivariate setting, and we leverage existing results on weighted scores to introduce weighted probability integral transform (PIT) histograms, allowing forecast calibration to be assessed conditionally on particular outcomes having occurred. To illustrate the practical benefit afforded by these weighted verification tools, they are employed in a case study to evaluate forecasts for extreme heat events issued by the Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss)

Uso de ninhos de cupin como fonte de matéria orgânica em sistemas de produção agrosilviculturais na Amazônia

The growth of two annual crops, okra (Abelmoschus escutentus) and egg-plant (Solatium melongena) and one perennial crop, andiroba (Carapa guianensis, a native forest tree of Amazonia) under different treatments with organic manure derived from termite nest material of wood-feeding Nasutitermes species was tested (randomized block design). The use of 25-100 g of nest material gave no significant increase in okra productivity, and 25-200 g gave no significant response in andiroba. The combined use of NPK with 200 g of nest material gave a significant higher production in egg-plant (total number and total fresh weight of fruits) when compared to the control (without fertilizer) and to the treatment with NPK only.The results suggest the possibility to use termite nest material to enhance crop production in Amazonia, particularly in combination with low amounts of mineral fertilizer. Research lines for further investigations are outlined.Foi avaliado crescimento de duas espécies agriculturais anuais, quiabo (Abelmoschus esculentus) e berinjela (Solatium melongena), e de uma espécie perene, andiroba (Carapa guianensis, uma árvore nativa da Amazônia) sob diferentes tratamentos com matéria orgânica derivada de material de cupinzeiro de espécies xilófagas de Nasutitermes (desenho de bloco randomizado). O uso de 25-100 g de material de termiteiro não levou a um incremento significativo da produtividade em quiabo, e 25-200 g não resultou numa resposta significativa em andiroba. O uso combinado de NPK com 200 g de ninho de cupim resultou numa produção significantemente maior em S. melongena (número total e peso fresco total de frutos) se comparado com o controle (sem fertilizante nenhum) e com o tratamento de NPK apenas. Os resultados sugerem a possibilidade de usar material de cupinzeiro para melhorara produção agrossilvicultural na Amazônia, especialmente em combinação com pequenas quantidades de fertilizante mineral Linhas de pesquisa para futuras investigações são apresentadas

Karakteristik Inovasi Terpakai dalam Peternakan Sapi Rakyat dan Pertanian Padi di Kabupaten 50 Kota Provinsi Sumatera Barat

Permasalahan kesenjangan antara kemampuan produksi daging sapi dan padi dengan kebutuhan konsumsi nasional yang tinggi telah mendorong penelitian ini dilakukan, guna dapat menjawab pertanyaan: (1) inovasi penting apakah yang terpakai dalam proses peternakan sapi dan produksi padi sekarang ini; (2) faktor –faktor yang mendukung inovasi tersebut diadopsi oleh peternak dan petani. Metode yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah metode survei dan analisa data sekunder. Jumlah responden dihitung menggunakan rumus Slovin berdasakan asumsi bahwa karakter populasi tidak diketahui. Dengan menetapkan derajat kepercayaan sebesar 90 persen maka diperoleh 60 jumlah responden yang harus diwawancarai. Pemilihan 60 responden dari 170 populasi dilakukan dengan metode systemic random sampling. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peternak dan petani sudah diperkenalkan pada seperangkat inovasi yang saling mendukung. Para peternak dan petani mengadopsi inovasi secara selektif. Inovasi yang banyak diadopsi petani adalah bibit unggul dan teknologi inovasi lain yang sesuai dengan kebutuhan serta mudah diterapkan

A quantitative model of the role of soil fauna in decomposition as affected by different forested cropping systems in central Amazonia.

The basic idea this study was the improvement of the traditional fallow system with slash burning for land preparation and differs in this respect from attenpts to develop completely new land-use systems, in the Manaus-AM (Brasil)

Richness of termite genera in a semi-arid region (Sertão) in NE Brazil (Isoptera)

The genus richness of the termite fauna of a semiarid area (caatinga) in Northeastern Brazil was investigated in the dry season of 1996 and the rainy season of 1998. Eight genera belonging to three termite families (Termitidae, Rhinotermitidae and Kalotermitidae) were found in assessments of termite nests and mounds, investigation of dead wood, and cardboard baits buried 10 cm deep in the soil. The nestbuilder guild was represented by only three genera: Nasutitermes, Constrictotermes and Microcerotermes. Their density (about 1-3 nests ha-1) was very low. In mounds of Constrictotermes, the genus Inquilinitermes is almost invariably found as an inquiline. During the dry season of 1996, wood-inhabiting Kalotermitidae (Neotermes sp.) were abundant in dead branches still attached to the trees. In dead wood on the ground we recorded Heterotermes of the Rhinotermitidae, and Amitermes and Termes of the Termitidae. A relatively high activity of Heterotermes on the baits was recorded within 3 months of exposure. Thus, this site is characterized by a very low genus diversity of termites; nest builders are rare, but soil- and wood-dwelling species are highly active in spite of the adverse conditions (drought) which reign during the larger part of the year

A reinforcement learning approach to view planning for automated inspection tasks

Manual inspection of workpieces in highly flexible production facilities with small lot sizes is costly and less reliable compared to automated inspection systems. Reinforcement Learning (RL) offers promising, intelligent solutions for robotic inspection and manufacturing tasks. This paper presents an RL-based approach to determine a high-quality set of sensor view poses for arbitrary workpieces based on their 3D computer-aided design (CAD). The framework extends available open-source libraries and provides an interface to the Robot Operating System (ROS) for deploying any supported robot and sensor. The integration into commonly used OpenAI Gym and Baselines leads to an expandable and comparable benchmark for RL algorithms. We give a comprehensive overview of related work in the field of view planning and RL. A comparison of different RL algorithms provides a proof of concept for the framework’s functionality in experimental scenarios. The obtained results exhibit a coverage ratio of up to 0.8 illustrating its potential impact and expandability. The project will be made publicly available along with this article.Ministry of Economic Affairs of the state Baden-Württember

The function of the soil macrofauna in decomposition processes in Central Amazonian polyculture systems and forests.

A study of macrofauna and decomposition in three central Amazonian ecosystems (a primary and a secondary forest and two polyculture tree plantations) has shown the high importance of the macrofauna for the litter decomposition

Abundance, biomass and diversity of the soil fauna in degraded areas under recuperation in the Central Amazon Region.

The soil fauna plays an important role in the stability of decomposition processes and as a result its abundance, biomass and species composition, may influence the nutrient cycles in agroecosystems

Impregnation of Bombax ceiba and Bombax insigne wood with a N-methylol melamine compound

Methylated N-methylol melamine (NMM) is known for its ability to enhance physico-mechanical properties, anti-fungal ability, and hydrophobicity and was therefore used to impregnate two less used and non-durable wood species from Myanmar, Bombax ceiba and Bombax insigne. Solution uptake, weight percent gain and nitrogen content were increased by increasing melamine concentrations with B. ceiba always achieving higher values compared with B. insigne. According to the leaching results, a higher degree of condensation after curing as well as a better crosslinking of NMM could be obtained at higher temperatures. However, both curing temperatures used (90 and 120 A degrees C) resulted in almost the same amount of nitrogen fixed in the cell wall. UV microspectrophotometry confirmed the penetration of the NMM into different morphological regions of wood tissues, which was again supported by the analysis of point measurement spectra of treated and untreated specimens

Breech presentation at term and associated obstetric risks factors-a nationwide population based cohort study

Purpose The aim of this study was to estimate whether breech presentation at term was associated with known individual obstetric risk factors for adverse fetal outcome. Methods This was a retrospective, nationwide Finnish population-based cohort study. Obstetric risks in all breech and vertex singleton deliveries at term were compared between the years 2005 and 2014. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to determine significant risk factors. Results The breech presentation rate at term for singleton pregnancies was 2.4%. The stillbirth rate in term breech presentation was significantly higher compared to cephalic presentation (0.2 vs 0.1%). The odds ratios (95% CIs) for fetal growth restriction, oligohydramnios, gestational diabetes, a history of cesarean section and congenital fetal abnormalities were 1.19 CI (1.07-1.32), 1.42 CI (1.27-1.57), 1.06 CI (1.00-1.13), 2.13 (1.98-2.29) and 2.01 CI (1.92-2.11). Conclusions The study showed that breech presentation at term on its own was significantly associated with antenatal stillbirth and a number of individual obstetric risk factors for adverse perinatal outcomes. The risk factors included oligohydramnios, fetal growth restriction, gestational diabetes, history of caesarean section and congenital anomalies.Peer reviewe