Derivative pricing for a multi-curve extension of the Gaussian, exponentially quadratic short rate model

The recent financial crisis has led to so-called multi-curve models for the term structure. Here we study a multi-curve extension of short rate models where, in addition to the short rate itself, we introduce short rate spreads. In particular, we consider a Gaussian factor model where the short rate and the spreads are second order polynomials of Gaussian factor processes. This leads to an exponentially quadratic model class that is less well known than the exponentially affine class. In the latter class the factors enter linearly and for positivity one considers square root factor processes. While the square root factors in the affine class have more involved distributions, in the quadratic class the factors remain Gaussian and this leads to various advantages, in particular for derivative pricing. After some preliminaries on martingale modeling in the multi-curve setup, we concentrate on pricing of linear and optional derivatives. For linear derivatives, we exhibit an adjustment factor that allows one to pass from pre-crisis single curve values to the corresponding post-crisis multi-curve values

Euclidean Distances, soft and spectral Clustering on Weighted Graphs

We define a class of Euclidean distances on weighted graphs, enabling to perform thermodynamic soft graph clustering. The class can be constructed form the "raw coordinates" encountered in spectral clustering, and can be extended by means of higher-dimensional embeddings (Schoenberg transformations). Geographical flow data, properly conditioned, illustrate the procedure as well as visualization aspects.Comment: accepted for presentation (and further publication) at the ECML PKDD 2010 conferenc

Derivation of exact master equation with stochastic description: Dissipative harmonic oscillator

A systematic procedure for deriving the master equation of a dissipative system is reported in the framework of stochastic description. For the Caldeira-Leggett model of the harmonic-oscillator bath, a detailed and elementary derivation of the bath-induced stochastic field is presented. The dynamics of the system is thereby fully described by a stochastic differential equation and the desired master equation would be acquired with statistical averaging. It is shown that the existence of a closed-form master equation depends on the specificity of the system as well as the feature of the dissipation characterized by the spectral density function. For a dissipative harmonic oscillator it is observed that the correlation between the stochastic field due to the bath and the system can be decoupled and the master equation naturally comes out. Such an equation possesses the Lindblad form in which time dependent coefficients are determined by a set of integral equations. It is proved that the obtained master equation is equivalent to the well-known Hu-Paz-Zhang equation based on the path integral technique. The procedure is also used to obtain the master equation of a dissipative harmonic oscillator in time-dependent fields.Comment: 24page

Modeling and Analysis of Effective Ways for Improving the Reliability of Second-hand Products Sold with Warranty

Often, customers are uncertain about the performance and durability of the used/second-hand products. The warranties play an important role in reassuring the buyer. Offering the warranty implies that the dealer incurs additional costs to service any claims made by the customers. Reducing warranty costs is an issue of great interest to dealers. One way of improving the reliability and reducing the warranty servicing cost for second-hand items is through actions such as overhaul and upgrade which are carried out by the dealer or a third party. Improving actions allow the dealer to offer better warranty terms and to sell the item at a higher price. This paper deals with two effective approaches (virtual age approach and screening test approach) to decide on the reliability improvement strategies for second-hand products sold under various warranty policies (failure-free, rebate warranty, and a combination of free replacement and lump sum). A numerical example illustrates that from a dealer’s point of view, it is beneficial to carry out an improvement action only if the reduction in the warranty servicing cost is greater than the extra cost incurred due to this improvement action

Risk measures for direct real estate investments with non-normal or unknown return distributions

The volatility of returns is probably the most widely used risk measure for real estate. This is rather surprising since a number of studies have cast doubts on the view that volatility can capture the manifold risks attached to properties and corresponds to the risk attitude of investors. A central issue in this discussion is the statistical properties of real estate returns—in contrast to neoclassical capital market theory they are mostly non-normal and often unknown, which render many statistical measures useless. Based on a literature review and an analysis of data from Germany we provide evidence that volatility alone is inappropriate for measuring the risk of direct real estate. We use a unique data sample by IPD, which includes the total returns of 939 properties across different usage types (56% office, 20% retail, 8% others and 16% residential properties) from 1996 to 2009, the German IPD Index, and the German Property Index. The analysis of the distributional characteristics shows that German real estate returns in this period were not normally distributed and that a logistic distribution would have been a better fit. This is in line with most of the current literature on this subject and leads to the question which indicators are more appropriate to measure real estate risks. We suggest that a combination of quantitative and qualitative risk measures more adequately captures real estate risks and conforms better with investor attitudes to risk. Furthermore, we present criteria for the purpose of risk classification

Convexity Adjustment for Constant maturity Swaps in a Multi-Curve Framework

In this paper we propose a double curving setup with distinct forward and discount curves to price constant maturity swaps (CMS). Using separate curves for discounting and forwarding, we develop a new convexity adjustment, by departing from the restrictive assumption of a flat term structure, and expand our setting to incorporate the more realistic and even challenging case of term structure tilts. We calibrate CMS spreads to market data and numerically compare our adjustments against the Black and SABR (stochastic alpha beta rho) CMS adjustments widely used in the market. Our analysis suggests that the proposed convexity adjustment is significantly larger compared to the Black and SABR adjustments and offers a consistent and robust valuation of CMS spreads across different market conditions

Pain outcomes in patients with bone metastases from advanced cancer: assessment and management with bone-targeting agents

Bone metastases in advanced cancer frequently cause painful complications that impair patient physical activity and negatively affect quality of life. Pain is often underreported and poorly managed in these patients. The most commonly used pain assessment instruments are visual analogue scales, a single-item measure, and the Brief Pain Inventory Questionnaire-Short Form. The World Health Organization analgesic ladder and the Analgesic Quantification Algorithm are used to evaluate analgesic use. Bone-targeting agents, such as denosumab or bisphosphonates, prevent skeletal complications (i.e., radiation to bone, pathologic fractures, surgery to bone, and spinal cord compression) and can also improve pain outcomes in patients with metastatic bone disease. We have reviewed pain outcomes and analgesic use and reported pain data from an integrated analysis of randomized controlled studies of denosumab versus the bisphosphonate zoledronic acid (ZA) in patients with bone metastases from advanced solid tumors. Intravenous bisphosphonates improved pain outcomes in patients with bone metastases from solid tumors. Compared with ZA, denosumab further prevented pain worsening and delayed the need for treatment with strong opioids. In patients with no or mild pain at baseline, denosumab reduced the risk of increasing pain severity and delayed pain worsening along with the time to increased pain interference compared with ZA, suggesting that use of denosumab (with appropriate calcium and vitamin D supplementation) before patients develop bone pain may improve outcomes. These data also support the use of validated pain assessments to optimize treatment and reduce the burden of pain associated with metastatic bone disease

Efficient pricing of ratchet equity-indexed annuities in a variance-gamma economy

In this paper we propose a new method for approximating the price of arithmetic Asian options in a Variance-Gamma (VG) economy, which is then applied to the problem of pricing equityindexed annuity contracts. The proposed procedure is an extension to the case of a VG-based model of the moment-matching method developed by Turnbull and Wakeman and Levy for the pricing of this class of path-dependent options in the traditional Black-Scholes setting. The accuracy of the approximation is analyzed against RQMC estimates for the case of ratchet equityindexed annuities with index averaging