Characterization of between-group inequality of longevity in European Union countries

Comparisons of differential survival by country are useful in many domains. In the area of public policy, they help policymakers and analysts assess how much various groups benefit from public programs, such as social security and health care. In financial markets and especially for actuaries, they are important for designing annuities and life insurance products. This paper presents a method for clustering information about differential mortality by country. The approach is then used to group mortality surfaces for European Union (EU) countries. The aim of this paper is to measure between-group inequality in mortality experience in EU countries through a range of mortality indicators. Additionally, the indicators permit the characterization of each group. It is important to take into account characteristics such as sex; therefore, this study differentiates between males and females in order to detect whether their patterns and characterizations are different. It is concluded that there are clear differences in mortality between the east and west of the EU that are more important than the traditional south-north division, with a significant disadvantage for Eastern Europe, and especially for males in Baltic countries. We find that the mortality indicators have evolved in all countries in such a way that the gap between groups has been maintained, both in terms of the differences in mortality levels and variability

Extinction and Retrieval + Extinction of Conditioned Fear Differentially Activate Medial Prefrontal Cortex and Amygdala in Rats

Pairing a previously neutral conditioned stimulus (CS; e.g., a tone) to an aversive unconditioned stimulus (US; e.g., a footshock) leads to associative learning such that the tone alone comes to elicit a conditioned response (e.g., freezing). We have previously shown that an extinction session that occurs within the reconsolidation window (termed retrieval+extinction) attenuates fear responding and prevents the return of fear in Pavlovian fear conditioning (Monfils et al., 2009). To date, the mechanisms that explain the different behavioral outcomes between standard extinction and retrieval+extinction remain poorly understood. Here we sought to examine the differential temporal engagement of specific neural systems by these 2 approaches using Arc catFISH (cellular compartment analysis of temporal activity using fluorescence in situ hybridization). Our results demonstrate that extinction and retrieval+extinction lead to differential patterns of expression, suggesting that they engage different networks. These findings provide insight into the neural mechanisms that allow extinction during reconsolidation to prevent the return of fear in rats

Improved Semiclassical Approximation for Bose-Einstein Condensates: Application to a BEC in an Optical Potential

We present semiclassical descriptions of Bose-Einstein condensates for configurations with spatial symmetry, e.g., cylindrical symmetry, and without any symmetry. The description of the cylindrical case is quasi-one-dimensional (Q1D), in the sense that one only needs to solve an effective 1D nonlinear Schrodinger equation, but the solution incorporates correct 3D aspects of the problem. The solution in classically allowed regions is matched onto that in classically forbidden regions by a connection formula that properly accounts for the nonlinear mean-field interaction. Special cases for vortex solutions are treated too. Comparisons of the Q1D solution with full 3D and Thomas-Fermi ones are presented.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Do different models induce changes in mortality indicators? That is a key question for extending the Lee-Carter model.

The parametric model introduced by Lee and Carter in 1992 for modeling mortality rates in the USA was a seminal development in forecasting life expectancies and has been widely used since then. Different extensions of this model, using different hypotheses about the data, constraints on the parameters, and appropriate methods have led to improvements in the model’s fit to historical data and the model’s forecasting of the future. This paper’s main objective is to evaluate if differences between models are reflected in different mortality indicators’ forecasts. To this end, nine sets of indicator predictions were generated by crossing three models and three block-bootstrap samples with each of size fifty. Later the predicted mortality indicators were compared using functional ANOVA. Models and block bootstrap procedures are applied to Spanish mortality data. Results show model, block-bootstrap, and interaction effects for all mortality indicators. Although it was not our main objective, it is essential to point out that the sample effect should not be present since they must be realizations of the same population, and therefore the procedure should lead to samples that do not influence the results. Regarding significant model effect, it follows that, although the addition of terms improves the adjustment of probabilities and translates into an effect on mortality indicators, the model’s predictions must be checked in terms of their probabilities and the mortality indicators of interest

Vector-soliton collision dynamics in nonlinear optical fibers

We consider the interactions of two identical, orthogonally polarized vector solitons in a nonlinear optical fiber with two polarization directions, described by a coupled pair of nonlinear Schroedinger equations. We study a low-dimensional model system of Hamiltonian ODE derived by Ueda and Kath and also studied by Tan and Yang. We derive a further simplified model which has similar dynamics but is more amenable to analysis. Sufficiently fast solitons move by each other without much interaction, but below a critical velocity the solitons may be captured. In certain bands of initial velocities the solitons are initially captured, but separate after passing each other twice, a phenomenon known as the two-bounce or two-pass resonance. We derive an analytic formula for the critical velocity. Using matched asymptotic expansions for separatrix crossing, we determine the location of these "resonance windows." Numerical simulations of the ODE models show they compare quite well with the asymptotic theory.Comment: 32 pages, submitted to Physical Review

Multi-population mortality forecasting using tensor decomposition

In this paper, we formulate the multi-population mortality forecasting problem based on 3-way (age, year, and country/gender) decompositions. By applying the canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD) and the different forms of the Tucker decomposition to multi-population mortality data (10 European countries and 2 genders), we find that the out-of-sample forecasting performance is significantly improved both for individual populations and the aggregate population compared with using the single-population mortality model based on rank-1 singular value decomposition (SVD), or the Lee–Carter model. The results also shed lights on the similarity and difference of mortality among different countries. Additionally, we compare the variance-explained method and the out-of-sample validation method for rank (hyper-parameter) selection. Results show that the out-of-sample validation method is preferred for forecasting purposes

Hard loss of stability in Painlev\'e-2 equation

A special asymptotic solution of the Painlev\'e-2 equation with small parameter is studied. This solution has a critical point $t_*$ corresponding to a bifurcation phenomenon. When $t<t_*$ the constructed solution varies slowly and when $t>t_*$ the solution oscillates very fast. We investigate the transitional layer in detail and obtain a smooth asymptotic solution, using a sequence of scaling and matching procedures