What makes or breaks a campaign to stop an invading plant pathogen?

Diseases in humans, animals and plants remain an important challenge in our society. Effective control of invasive pathogens often requires coordinated concerted action of a large group of stakeholders. Both epidemiological and human behavioural factors influence the outcome of a disease control campaign. In mathematical models that are frequently used to guide such campaigns, human behaviour is often ill-represented, if at all. Existing models of human, animal and plant disease that do incorporate participation or compliance are often driven by pay-offs or direct observations of the disease state. It is however very well known that opinion is an important driving factor of human decision making. Here we consider the case study of Citrus Huanglongbing disease (HLB), which is an acute bacterial disease that threatens the sustainability of citrus production across the world. We show how by coupling an epidemiological model of this invasive disease with an opinion dynamics model we are able to answer the question: What makes or breaks the effectiveness of a disease control campaign? Frequent contact between stakeholders and advisors is shown to increase the probability of successful control. More surprisingly, we show that informing stakeholders about the effectiveness of control methods is of much greater importance than prematurely increasing their perceptions of the risk of infection. We discuss the overarching consequences of this finding and the effect on human as well as plant disease epidemics

Bifurcation analysis of a normal form for excitable media: Are stable dynamical alternans on a ring possible?

We present a bifurcation analysis of a normal form for travelling waves in one-dimensional excitable media. The normal form which has been recently proposed on phenomenological grounds is given in form of a differential delay equation. The normal form exhibits a symmetry preserving Hopf bifurcation which may coalesce with a saddle-node in a Bogdanov-Takens point, and a symmetry breaking spatially inhomogeneous pitchfork bifurcation. We study here the Hopf bifurcation for the propagation of a single pulse in a ring by means of a center manifold reduction, and for a wave train by means of a multiscale analysis leading to a real Ginzburg-Landau equation as the corresponding amplitude equation. Both, the center manifold reduction and the multiscale analysis show that the Hopf bifurcation is always subcritical independent of the parameters. This may have links to cardiac alternans which have so far been believed to be stable oscillations emanating from a supercritical bifurcation. We discuss the implications for cardiac alternans and revisit the instability in some excitable media where the oscillations had been believed to be stable. In particular, we show that our condition for the onset of the Hopf bifurcation coincides with the well known restitution condition for cardiac alternans.Comment: to be published in Chao

X-ray Spectroscopy of Candidate Ultracompact X-ray Binaries

We present high-resolution spectroscopy of the neutron star/low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) 4U 1850-087 and 4U 0513-40 as part of our continuing study of known and candidate ultracompact binaries. The LMXB 4U 1850-087 is one of four systems in which we had previously inferred an unusual Ne/O ratio in the absorption along the line of sight, most likely from material local to the binaries. However, our recent Chandra X-ray Observatory LETGS spectrum of 4U 1850-087 finds a Ne/O ratio by number of 0.22+/-0.05, smaller than previously measured and consistent with the expected interstellar value. We propose that variations in the Ne/O ratio due to source variability, as previously observed in these sources, can explain the difference between the low- and high-resolution spectral results for 4U 1850-087. Our XMM-Newton RGS observation of 4U 0513-40 also shows no unusual abundance ratios in the absorption along the line of sight. We also present spectral results from a third candidate ultracompact binary, 4U 1822-000, whose spectrum is well fit by an absorbed power-law + blackbody model with absorption consistent with the expected interstellar value. Finally, we present the non-detection of a fourth candidate ultracompact binary, 4U 1905+000, with an upper limit on the source luminosity of < 1 x 10^{32} erg s^{-1}. Using archival data, we show that the source has entered an extended quiescent state.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication to the Astrophysical Journa

A superburst from 4U 1254-690

We report the detection with the BeppoSAX Wide Field Cameras of a superburst from 4U 1254-690. The superburst is preceded by a normal type-I X-ray burst, has a decay time that is the longest of all eight superbursts detected so far and a peak luminosity that is the lowest. Like for the other seven superbursts, the origin is a well-known type-I X-ray burster with a persistent luminosity level close to one tenth of the Eddington limit. Based on WFC data of all persistently bright X-ray bursters, the average rate of superbursts is 0.51+/-0.25 per year per persistently bright X-ray burster. Some systems may have higher superburst rates. For all superbursters, we present evidence for a pure helium layer which is burnt in an unstable as well as a stable manner.Comment: Accepted by A&A Letter

Automated Point-based Tolerance Analysis Model Creation for Sheet Metal Parts

AbstractThis paper focuses on a concept that shows a way to automatically create a point-based tolerance analysis model out of existing development data. Nowadays solutions for an automated tolerance simulation model creation are using a static approach for the model build-up. For this purpose product-/ production- development data are automatically mapped on preexisting models (e.g. skeleton models). If chances during development process occur, the tolerance simulation models have to be reworked. Today only simple changes in the model can be automated (e.g. change of distribution, tolerance range etc.). A complete new tolerance simulation model build-up process for dynamically changing product-/ production- development information is not possible. To give an application example, tolerance simulation models for sheet metal parts in automotive industry are based on different development data. Before the first simulation model is created (to secure the tolerance concepts etc.), all necessary information have already been developed, e.g. in the automotive industry's development process: part geometry, tolerance information, assembly graph, jig and fixture concept, joining location and measurement points. Thus the automated simulation generation should be possible.First step is to describe an interface for a dynamic model creation in tolerance simulation systems. In a second step preprocessing of development data is necessary to map them into tolerance simulation software restrictions. This delivers a solution to fill the gap between the PDM-/ CAD and the CAT-system. The considered approach for automated tolerance simulation model creation provides the opportunity to build-up the tolerance analysis models highly efficient and almost automatically. Tolerance analysis can then be used to rapidly calculate several options. This offers the possibility to increase the product maturity level at a very early stage of the development process

Why do ultrasoft repulsive particles cluster and crystallize? Analytical results from density functional theory

We demonstrate the accuracy of the hypernetted chain closure and of the mean-field approximation for the calculation of the fluid-state properties of systems interacting by means of bounded and positive-definite pair potentials with oscillating Fourier transforms. Subsequently, we prove the validity of a bilinear, random-phase density functional for arbitrary inhomogeneous phases of the same systems. On the basis of this functional, we calculate analytically the freezing parameters of the latter. We demonstrate explicitly that the stable crystals feature a lattice constant that is independent of density and whose value is dictated by the position of the negative minimum of the Fourier transform of the pair potential. This property is equivalent with the existence of clusters, whose population scales proportionally to the density. We establish that regardless of the form of the interaction potential and of the location on the freezing line, all cluster crystals have a universal Lindemann ratio L = 0.189 at freezing. We further make an explicit link between the aforementioned density functional and the harmonic theory of crystals. This allows us to establish an equivalence between the emergence of clusters and the existence of negative Fourier components of the interaction potential. Finally, we make a connection between the class of models at hand and the system of infinite-dimensional hard spheres, when the limits of interaction steepness and space dimension are both taken to infinity in a particularly described fashion.Comment: 19 pages, 5 figures, submitted to J. Chem. Phys; new version: minor changes in structure of pape

X-ray Variability in the Young Massive Triple theta2 Ori A

Massive stars rarely show intrinsic X-ray variability. The only O-stars credited to be intrinsically variable are theta1 Ori C due to effects from magnetic confinement of its wind, and theta2 Ori A suspected of similar activity. Early Chandra observations have shown that the most massive star system in the Orion Trapezium Cluster, theta2 Ori A, shows rapid variability on time scales of hours. We determine X-ray fluxes and find that the star shows very strong variability over the last 5 years. We observed a second large X-ray outburst in November 2004 with the high resolution transmission grating spectrometer on-board Chandra. In the low state X-ray emissivities indicate temperatures well above 25 MK. In the high state we find an extended emissivity distribution with high emissivities in the range from 3 MK to over 100 MK. The outburst event in stellar terms is one of the most powerful ever observed and the most energetic one in the ONC with a lower total energy limit of 1.5x10^37 ergs. The line diagnostics show that under the assumption that the line emitting regions in the low states are as close as within 1 -- 2 stellar radii from the O-star's photosphere, whereas the hard states suggest a distance of 3 -- 5 stellar radii. The two outbursts are very close to the periastron passage of the stars. We argue that the high X-ray states are possibly the result of reconnection events from magnetic interactions of the primary and secondary stars of the spectroscopic binary. Effects from wind collisions seem unlikely for this system. The low state emissivity and R-ratios strengthen the predicament that the X-ray emission is enhanced by magnetic confinement of the primary wind. We also detect Fe fluorescence indicative of the existence of substantial amounts of neutral Fe in the vicinity of the X-ray emission.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Main Journa

Simultaneous BeppoSAX and Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer observations of 4U1812-12

4U1812-12 is a faint persistent and weakly variable neutron star X-ray binary. It was observed by BeppoSAX between April 20th and 21st, 2000 in a hard spectral state with a bolometric luminosity of ~2x10^36 ergs/s. Its broad band energy spectrum is characterized by the presence of a hard X-ray tail extending above ~100 keV. It can be represented as the sum of a dominant hard Comptonized component (electron temperature of ~36 keV and optical depth ~3) and a weak soft component. The latter component which can be fitted with a blackbody of about 0.6 keV and equivalent radius of ~2 km is likely to originate from the neutron star surface. We also report on the first measurement of the power density spectrum of the source rapid X-ray variability, as recorded during a simultaneous snapshot observation performed by the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. As expected for a neutron star system in such hard spectral state, its power density spectrum is characterized by the presence of a ~0.7 Hz low frequency quasi-periodic oscillation together with three broad noise components, one of which extends above ~200 Hz.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in A&

4U2206+54 - an Unusual High Mass X-ray Binary with a 9.6 Day Orbital Period but No Strong Pulsations

Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer All-Sky Monitor observations of the X-ray source 4U2206+54, previously proposed to be a Be star system, show the X-ray flux to be modulated with a period of approximately 9.6 days. If the modulation is due to orbital variability then this would be one of the shortest orbital periods known for a Be star X-ray source. However, the X-ray luminosity is relatively modest whereas a high luminosity would be predicted if the system contains a neutron star accreting from the denser inner regions of a Be star envelope. Although a 392s pulse period was previously reported from EXOSAT observations, a reexamination of the EXOSAT light curves does not show this or any other periodicity. An analysis of archival RXTE Proportional Counter Array observations also fails to show any X-ray pulsations. We consider possible models that may explain the properties of this source including a neutron star with accretion halted at the magnetosphere and an accreting white dwarf.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journa