167 research outputs found
Pricing Options in Incomplete Equity Markets via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio
We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for
pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an
unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form
of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. First, we apply our method to
price options on non-traded assets for which there is a traded asset that is
correlated to the non-traded asset. Our main contribution to this particular
problem is to show that our seller/buyer prices are the upper/lower good deal
bounds of Cochrane and Sa\'{a}-Requejo (2000) and of Bj\"{o}rk and Slinko
(2006) and to determine the analytical properties of these prices. Second, we
apply our method to price options in the presence of stochastic volatility. Our
main contribution to this problem is to show that the instantaneous Sharpe
ratio, an integral ingredient in our methodology, is the negative of the market
price of volatility risk, as defined in Fouque, Papanicolaou, and Sircar
(2000).Comment: Keywords: Pricing derivative securities, incomplete markets, Sharpe
ratio, correlated assets, stochastic volatility, non-linear partial
differential equations, good deal bound
One-sided versus two-sided stochastic descriptions
It is well-known that discrete-time finite-state Markov Chains, which are
described by one-sided conditional probabilities which describe a dependence on
the past as only dependent on the present, can also be described as
one-dimensional Markov Fields, that is, nearest-neighbour Gibbs measures for
finite-spin models, which are described by two-sided conditional probabilities.
In such Markov Fields the time interpretation of past and future is being
replaced by the space interpretation of an interior volume, surrounded by an
exterior to the left and to the right.
If we relax the Markov requirement to weak dependence, that is, continuous
dependence, either on the past (generalising the Markov-Chain description) or
on the external configuration (generalising the Markov-Field description), it
turns out this equivalence breaks down, and neither class contains the other.
In one direction this result has been known for a few years, in the opposite
direction a counterexample was found recently. Our counterexample is based on
the phenomenon of entropic repulsion in long-range Ising (or "Dyson") models.Comment: 13 pages, Contribution for "Statistical Mechanics of Classical and
Disordered Systems
Equilibrium states and invariant measures for random dynamical systems
Random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable
Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov
systems are uniformly continuous and contractive are considered. A
non-degeneracy and a consistency conditions for such systems, which admit some
proper Markov partitions of connected spaces, are introduced, and further
sufficient conditions for them are provided. It is shown that every uniformly
continuous Markov system associated with a continuous random dynamical system
is consistent if it has a dominating Markov chain. A necessary and sufficient
condition for the existence of an invariant Borel probability measure for such
a non-degenerate system with a dominating Markov chain and a finite (16) is
given. The condition is also sufficient if the non-degeneracy is weakened with
the consistency condition. A further sufficient condition for the existence of
an invariant measure for such a consistent system which involves only the
properties of the dominating Markov chain is provided. In particular, it
implies that every such a consistent system with a finite Markov partition and
a finite (16) has an invariant Borel probability measure. A bijective map
between these measures and equilibrium states associated with such a system is
established in the non-degenerate case. Some properties of the map and the
measures are given.Comment: The article is published in DCDS-A, but without the 3rd paragraph on
page 4 (the complete removal of the paragraph became the condition for the
publication in the DCDS-A after the reviewer ran out of the citation
suggestions collected in the paragraph
Recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures
The purpose of this paper is to give a selective survey on recent progress in
random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures. This
paper includes eight sections. Section 1 is a longer introduction, which gives
a brief introduction to random metric theory, risk measures and conditional
risk measures. Section 2 gives the central framework in random metric theory,
topological structures, important examples, the notions of a random conjugate
space and the Hahn-Banach theorems for random linear functionals. Section 3
gives several important representation theorems for random conjugate spaces.
Section 4 gives characterizations for a complete random normed module to be
random reflexive. Section 5 gives hyperplane separation theorems currently
available in random locally convex modules. Section 6 gives the theory of
random duality with respect to the locally convex topology and in
particular a characterization for a locally convex module to be
prebarreled. Section 7 gives some basic results on convex
analysis together with some applications to conditional risk measures. Finally,
Section 8 is devoted to extensions of conditional convex risk measures, which
shows that every representable type of conditional convex risk
measure and every continuous type of convex conditional risk measure
() can be extended to an type
of lower semicontinuous conditional convex risk measure and an
type of continuous
conditional convex risk measure (), respectively.Comment: 37 page
Rigorous Probabilistic Analysis of Equilibrium Crystal Shapes
The rigorous microscopic theory of equilibrium crystal shapes has made
enormous progress during the last decade. We review here the main results which
have been obtained, both in two and higher dimensions. In particular, we
describe how the phenomenological Wulff and Winterbottom constructions can be
derived from the microscopic description provided by the equilibrium
statistical mechanics of lattice gases. We focus on the main conceptual issues
and describe the central ideas of the existing approaches.Comment: To appear in the March 2000 special issue of Journal of Mathematical
Physics on Probabilistic Methods in Statistical Physic
Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options
Double no-touch options, contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an
underlying asset remains within a given interval, are commonly traded,
particularly in FX markets. In this work, we establish model-free bounds on the
price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options
(call and digital call options). Key steps are the construction of super- and
sub-hedging strategies to establish the bounds, and the use of Skorokhod
embedding techniques to show the bounds are the best possible.
In addition to establishing rigorous bounds, we consider carefully what is
meant by arbitrage in settings where there is no {\it a priori} known
probability measure. We discuss two natural extensions of the notion of
arbitrage, weak arbitrage and weak free lunch with vanishing risk, which are
needed to establish equivalence between the lack of arbitrage and the existence
of a market model.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figure
Entanglement between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods
Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on
others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in
the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted
price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one -- in which
case one says that the customers coordinate. This leads to a dilemma for the
seller: should he sell at a high price, targeting a small number of buyers, or
at low price targeting a large number of buyers? In this paper we show that the
interaction between demand and supply is even more complex than expected,
leading to what we call the curse of coordination: the pricing strategy for the
seller which aimed at maximizing his profit corresponds to posting a price
which, not only assumes that the customers will coordinate, but also lies very
near the critical price value at which such high demand no more exists. This is
obtained by the detailed mathematical analysis of a particular model formally
related to the Random Field Ising Model and to a model introduced in social
sciences by T C Schelling in the 70's.Comment: Updated version, accepted for publication, Journal of Statistical
Physics, online Dec 201
Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges
Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and
busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these
events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In
this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and
interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model
(RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective
socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss
different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential
feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or
trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology
missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable
predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding
effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns.
One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is
that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination
problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely
long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a
theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating
decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models
(that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several
minor improvements along reviewers' comment
Extremal flows in Wasserstein space
We develop an intrinsic geometric approach to the calculus of variations in theWasserstein
space. We show that the flows associated with the Schr\ua8odinger bridge with
general prior, with optimal mass transport, and with the Madelung fluid can all be
characterized as annihilating the first variation of a suitable action. We then discuss
the implications of this unified framework for stochastic mechanics: It entails, in particular,
a sort of fluid-dynamic reconciliation between Bohm\u2019s and Nelson\u2019s stochastic
mechanics
An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model
In this paper we present a macroeconomic microfounded framework with heterogeneous agents-individuals, firms, banks-which interact through a decentralized matching process presenting common features across four markets-goods, labor, credit and deposit. We study the dynamics of the model by means of computer simulation. Some macroeconomic properties emerge such as endogenous business cycles, nominal GDP growth, unemployment rate fluctuations, the Phillips curve, leverage cycles and credit constraints, bank defaults and financial instability, and the importance of government as an acyclical sector which stabilize the economy. The model highlights that even extended crises can endogenously emerge. In these cases, the system may remain trapped in a large unemployment status, without the possibility to quickly recover unless an exogenous intervention takes place
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