Pricing Options in Incomplete Equity Markets via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio

We use a continuous version of the standard deviation premium principle for pricing in incomplete equity markets by assuming that the investor issuing an unhedgeable derivative security requires compensation for this risk in the form of a pre-specified instantaneous Sharpe ratio. First, we apply our method to price options on non-traded assets for which there is a traded asset that is correlated to the non-traded asset. Our main contribution to this particular problem is to show that our seller/buyer prices are the upper/lower good deal bounds of Cochrane and Sa\'{a}-Requejo (2000) and of Bj\"{o}rk and Slinko (2006) and to determine the analytical properties of these prices. Second, we apply our method to price options in the presence of stochastic volatility. Our main contribution to this problem is to show that the instantaneous Sharpe ratio, an integral ingredient in our methodology, is the negative of the market price of volatility risk, as defined in Fouque, Papanicolaou, and Sircar (2000).Comment: Keywords: Pricing derivative securities, incomplete markets, Sharpe ratio, correlated assets, stochastic volatility, non-linear partial differential equations, good deal bound

One-sided versus two-sided stochastic descriptions

It is well-known that discrete-time finite-state Markov Chains, which are described by one-sided conditional probabilities which describe a dependence on the past as only dependent on the present, can also be described as one-dimensional Markov Fields, that is, nearest-neighbour Gibbs measures for finite-spin models, which are described by two-sided conditional probabilities. In such Markov Fields the time interpretation of past and future is being replaced by the space interpretation of an interior volume, surrounded by an exterior to the left and to the right. If we relax the Markov requirement to weak dependence, that is, continuous dependence, either on the past (generalising the Markov-Chain description) or on the external configuration (generalising the Markov-Field description), it turns out this equivalence breaks down, and neither class contains the other. In one direction this result has been known for a few years, in the opposite direction a counterexample was found recently. Our counterexample is based on the phenomenon of entropic repulsion in long-range Ising (or "Dyson") models.Comment: 13 pages, Contribution for "Statistical Mechanics of Classical and Disordered Systems

Equilibrium states and invariant measures for random dynamical systems

Random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov systems are uniformly continuous and contractive are considered. A non-degeneracy and a consistency conditions for such systems, which admit some proper Markov partitions of connected spaces, are introduced, and further sufficient conditions for them are provided. It is shown that every uniformly continuous Markov system associated with a continuous random dynamical system is consistent if it has a dominating Markov chain. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an invariant Borel probability measure for such a non-degenerate system with a dominating Markov chain and a finite (16) is given. The condition is also sufficient if the non-degeneracy is weakened with the consistency condition. A further sufficient condition for the existence of an invariant measure for such a consistent system which involves only the properties of the dominating Markov chain is provided. In particular, it implies that every such a consistent system with a finite Markov partition and a finite (16) has an invariant Borel probability measure. A bijective map between these measures and equilibrium states associated with such a system is established in the non-degenerate case. Some properties of the map and the measures are given.Comment: The article is published in DCDS-A, but without the 3rd paragraph on page 4 (the complete removal of the paragraph became the condition for the publication in the DCDS-A after the reviewer ran out of the citation suggestions collected in the paragraph

Recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures

The purpose of this paper is to give a selective survey on recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures. This paper includes eight sections. Section 1 is a longer introduction, which gives a brief introduction to random metric theory, risk measures and conditional risk measures. Section 2 gives the central framework in random metric theory, topological structures, important examples, the notions of a random conjugate space and the Hahn-Banach theorems for random linear functionals. Section 3 gives several important representation theorems for random conjugate spaces. Section 4 gives characterizations for a complete random normed module to be random reflexive. Section 5 gives hyperplane separation theorems currently available in random locally convex modules. Section 6 gives the theory of random duality with respect to the locally $L^{0}-$convex topology and in particular a characterization for a locally $L^{0}-$convex module to be $L^{0}-$pre$-$barreled. Section 7 gives some basic results on $L^{0}-$convex analysis together with some applications to conditional risk measures. Finally, Section 8 is devoted to extensions of conditional convex risk measures, which shows that every representable $L^{\infty}-$type of conditional convex risk measure and every continuous $L^{p}-$type of convex conditional risk measure ($1\leq p<+\infty$) can be extended to an $L^{\infty}_{\cal F}({\cal E})-$type of $\sigma_{\epsilon,\lambda}(L^{\infty}_{\cal F}({\cal E}), L^{1}_{\cal F}({\cal E}))-$lower semicontinuous conditional convex risk measure and an $L^{p}_{\cal F}({\cal E})-$type of ${\cal T}_{\epsilon,\lambda}-$continuous conditional convex risk measure ($1\leq p<+\infty$), respectively.Comment: 37 page

Rigorous Probabilistic Analysis of Equilibrium Crystal Shapes

The rigorous microscopic theory of equilibrium crystal shapes has made enormous progress during the last decade. We review here the main results which have been obtained, both in two and higher dimensions. In particular, we describe how the phenomenological Wulff and Winterbottom constructions can be derived from the microscopic description provided by the equilibrium statistical mechanics of lattice gases. We focus on the main conceptual issues and describe the central ideas of the existing approaches.Comment: To appear in the March 2000 special issue of Journal of Mathematical Physics on Probabilistic Methods in Statistical Physic

Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options

Double no-touch options, contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an underlying asset remains within a given interval, are commonly traded, particularly in FX markets. In this work, we establish model-free bounds on the price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options (call and digital call options). Key steps are the construction of super- and sub-hedging strategies to establish the bounds, and the use of Skorokhod embedding techniques to show the bounds are the best possible. In addition to establishing rigorous bounds, we consider carefully what is meant by arbitrage in settings where there is no {\it a priori} known probability measure. We discuss two natural extensions of the notion of arbitrage, weak arbitrage and weak free lunch with vanishing risk, which are needed to establish equivalence between the lack of arbitrage and the existence of a market model.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figure

Entanglement between Demand and Supply in Markets with Bandwagon Goods

Whenever customers' choices (e.g. to buy or not a given good) depend on others choices (cases coined 'positive externalities' or 'bandwagon effect' in the economic literature), the demand may be multiply valued: for a same posted price, there is either a small number of buyers, or a large one -- in which case one says that the customers coordinate. This leads to a dilemma for the seller: should he sell at a high price, targeting a small number of buyers, or at low price targeting a large number of buyers? In this paper we show that the interaction between demand and supply is even more complex than expected, leading to what we call the curse of coordination: the pricing strategy for the seller which aimed at maximizing his profit corresponds to posting a price which, not only assumes that the customers will coordinate, but also lies very near the critical price value at which such high demand no more exists. This is obtained by the detailed mathematical analysis of a particular model formally related to the Random Field Ising Model and to a model introduced in social sciences by T C Schelling in the 70's.Comment: Updated version, accepted for publication, Journal of Statistical Physics, online Dec 201

Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

Extremal flows in Wasserstein space

We develop an intrinsic geometric approach to the calculus of variations in theWasserstein space. We show that the flows associated with the Schr\ua8odinger bridge with general prior, with optimal mass transport, and with the Madelung fluid can all be characterized as annihilating the first variation of a suitable action. We then discuss the implications of this unified framework for stochastic mechanics: It entails, in particular, a sort of fluid-dynamic reconciliation between Bohm\u2019s and Nelson\u2019s stochastic mechanics

An agent based decentralized matching macroeconomic model

In this paper we present a macroeconomic microfounded framework with heterogeneous agents-individuals, firms, banks-which interact through a decentralized matching process presenting common features across four markets-goods, labor, credit and deposit. We study the dynamics of the model by means of computer simulation. Some macroeconomic properties emerge such as endogenous business cycles, nominal GDP growth, unemployment rate fluctuations, the Phillips curve, leverage cycles and credit constraints, bank defaults and financial instability, and the importance of government as an acyclical sector which stabilize the economy. The model highlights that even extended crises can endogenously emerge. In these cases, the system may remain trapped in a large unemployment status, without the possibility to quickly recover unless an exogenous intervention takes place