Inf-convolution of G-expectations

In this paper we will discuss the optimal risk transfer problems when risk measures are generated by G-expectations, and we present the relationship between inf-convolution of G-expectations and the inf-convolution of drivers G.Comment: 23 page

Equilibrium states and invariant measures for random dynamical systems

Random dynamical systems with countably many maps which admit countable Markov partitions on complete metric spaces such that the resulting Markov systems are uniformly continuous and contractive are considered. A non-degeneracy and a consistency conditions for such systems, which admit some proper Markov partitions of connected spaces, are introduced, and further sufficient conditions for them are provided. It is shown that every uniformly continuous Markov system associated with a continuous random dynamical system is consistent if it has a dominating Markov chain. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of an invariant Borel probability measure for such a non-degenerate system with a dominating Markov chain and a finite (16) is given. The condition is also sufficient if the non-degeneracy is weakened with the consistency condition. A further sufficient condition for the existence of an invariant measure for such a consistent system which involves only the properties of the dominating Markov chain is provided. In particular, it implies that every such a consistent system with a finite Markov partition and a finite (16) has an invariant Borel probability measure. A bijective map between these measures and equilibrium states associated with such a system is established in the non-degenerate case. Some properties of the map and the measures are given.Comment: The article is published in DCDS-A, but without the 3rd paragraph on page 4 (the complete removal of the paragraph became the condition for the publication in the DCDS-A after the reviewer ran out of the citation suggestions collected in the paragraph

Recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures

The purpose of this paper is to give a selective survey on recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures. This paper includes eight sections. Section 1 is a longer introduction, which gives a brief introduction to random metric theory, risk measures and conditional risk measures. Section 2 gives the central framework in random metric theory, topological structures, important examples, the notions of a random conjugate space and the Hahn-Banach theorems for random linear functionals. Section 3 gives several important representation theorems for random conjugate spaces. Section 4 gives characterizations for a complete random normed module to be random reflexive. Section 5 gives hyperplane separation theorems currently available in random locally convex modules. Section 6 gives the theory of random duality with respect to the locally $L^{0}-$convex topology and in particular a characterization for a locally $L^{0}-$convex module to be $L^{0}-$pre$-$barreled. Section 7 gives some basic results on $L^{0}-$convex analysis together with some applications to conditional risk measures. Finally, Section 8 is devoted to extensions of conditional convex risk measures, which shows that every representable $L^{\infty}-$type of conditional convex risk measure and every continuous $L^{p}-$type of convex conditional risk measure ($1\leq p<+\infty$) can be extended to an $L^{\infty}_{\cal F}({\cal E})-$type of $\sigma_{\epsilon,\lambda}(L^{\infty}_{\cal F}({\cal E}), L^{1}_{\cal F}({\cal E}))-$lower semicontinuous conditional convex risk measure and an $L^{p}_{\cal F}({\cal E})-$type of ${\cal T}_{\epsilon,\lambda}-$continuous conditional convex risk measure ($1\leq p<+\infty$), respectively.Comment: 37 page

Multivariate risks and depth-trimmed regions

We describe a general framework for measuring risks, where the risk measure takes values in an abstract cone. It is shown that this approach naturally includes the classical risk measures and set-valued risk measures and yields a natural definition of vector-valued risk measures. Several main constructions of risk measures are described in this abstract axiomatic framework. It is shown that the concept of depth-trimmed (or central) regions from the multivariate statistics is closely related to the definition of risk measures. In particular, the halfspace trimming corresponds to the Value-at-Risk, while the zonoid trimming yields the expected shortfall. In the abstract framework, it is shown how to establish a both-ways correspondence between risk measures and depth-trimmed regions. It is also demonstrated how the lattice structure of the space of risk values influences this relationship.Comment: 26 pages. Substantially revised version with a number of new results adde

One-sided versus two-sided stochastic descriptions

It is well-known that discrete-time finite-state Markov Chains, which are described by one-sided conditional probabilities which describe a dependence on the past as only dependent on the present, can also be described as one-dimensional Markov Fields, that is, nearest-neighbour Gibbs measures for finite-spin models, which are described by two-sided conditional probabilities. In such Markov Fields the time interpretation of past and future is being replaced by the space interpretation of an interior volume, surrounded by an exterior to the left and to the right. If we relax the Markov requirement to weak dependence, that is, continuous dependence, either on the past (generalising the Markov-Chain description) or on the external configuration (generalising the Markov-Field description), it turns out this equivalence breaks down, and neither class contains the other. In one direction this result has been known for a few years, in the opposite direction a counterexample was found recently. Our counterexample is based on the phenomenon of entropic repulsion in long-range Ising (or "Dyson") models.Comment: 13 pages, Contribution for "Statistical Mechanics of Classical and Disordered Systems

Representation of the penalty term of dynamic concave utilities

In this paper we will provide a representation of the penalty term of general dynamic concave utilities (hence of dynamic convex risk measures) by applying the theory of g-expectations.Comment: An updated version is published in Finance & Stochastics. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

A comparison of two no-arbitrage conditions

We give a comparison of two no-arbitrage conditions for the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. The first condition is named as the no free lunch with vanishing risk condition and the second the no good deal condition. We aim to derive a relationship between these two conditions

Large deviations for many Brownian bridges with symmetrised initial-terminal condition

Consider a large system of $N$ Brownian motions in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with some non-degenerate initial measure on some fixed time interval $[0,\beta]$ with symmetrised initial-terminal condition. That is, for any $i$, the terminal location of the $i$-th motion is affixed to the initial point of the $\sigma(i)$-th motion, where $\sigma$ is a uniformly distributed random permutation of $1,...,N$. Such systems play an important role in quantum physics in the description of Boson systems at positive temperature $1/\beta$. In this paper, we describe the large-N behaviour of the empirical path measure (the mean of the Dirac measures in the $N$ paths) and of the mean of the normalised occupation measures of the $N$ motions in terms of large deviations principles. The rate functions are given as variational formulas involving certain entropies and Fenchel-Legendre transforms. Consequences are drawn for asymptotic independence statements and laws of large numbers. In the special case related to quantum physics, our rate function for the occupation measures turns out to be equal to the well-known Donsker-Varadhan rate function for the occupation measures of one motion in the limit of diverging time. This enables us to prove a simple formula for the large-N asymptotic of the symmetrised trace of ${\rm e}^{-\beta \mathcal{H}_N}$, where $\mathcal{H}_N$ is an $N$-particle Hamilton operator in a trap

Exponential martingales and changes of measure for counting processes

We give sufficient criteria for the Dol\'eans-Dade exponential of a stochastic integral with respect to a counting process local martingale to be a true martingale. The criteria are adapted particularly to the case of counting processes and are sufficiently weak to be useful and verifiable, as we illustrate by several examples. In particular, the criteria allow for the construction of for example nonexplosive Hawkes processes as well as counting processes with stochastic intensities depending on diffusion processes

Robust pricing and hedging of double no-touch options

Double no-touch options, contracts which pay out a fixed amount provided an underlying asset remains within a given interval, are commonly traded, particularly in FX markets. In this work, we establish model-free bounds on the price of these options based on the prices of more liquidly traded options (call and digital call options). Key steps are the construction of super- and sub-hedging strategies to establish the bounds, and the use of Skorokhod embedding techniques to show the bounds are the best possible. In addition to establishing rigorous bounds, we consider carefully what is meant by arbitrage in settings where there is no {\it a priori} known probability measure. We discuss two natural extensions of the notion of arbitrage, weak arbitrage and weak free lunch with vanishing risk, which are needed to establish equivalence between the lack of arbitrage and the existence of a market model.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figure