Integration of preference elicitation and the development of alternative forest plans : focusing on the requirements of the decision maker

Modern forest management frequently revolves around the concepts of developing strategic, tactical and operational level plans. These plans are developed through the use of simulation and optimization software, based on scientific models and mathematical programming. The optimal management schedule depends upon the decision maker(s) (DM) preferences. When developing forest plans for the DM(s) the method of acquiring preference information should be as value free as possible. To facilitate a DM-orientated approach, a selection of alternatives based on the acquired preferences should be made available to the DM so that a true choice can be made. The development of the forest plans should represent the desires and wishes of the forest owner at the time the plan is created. In order to balance the costs with the quality of the service provided, tools are required which develop client specific forest plans. The first objective of this thesis is to analyse different preference elicitation methods and study the impacts of information content on the selection of a plan. In papers I and II, plans were selected using an a posteriori method of preference elicitation. For paper III, preference elicitation was done in an interactive fashion, to develop an acceptable forest plan using both a priori and a posteriori preference elicitation methods. The second objective is to develop techniques for incorporating preference information into optimization methods. In paper IV, a series of goal programming models were used to incorporate the preference information from several DMs to generate a number of potentially desirable forest plans. Paper V develops a goal programming formulation which separates the treatment of different goals into two partitions; one strives to maintain the difference from the target for the goals in balance, the other strives to obtain the most efficient aggregate solution.Nykyaikainen metsäsuunnittelu keskittyy usein sellaisille käsitteellisille tasoille kuin strateginen, taktinen ja operatiivinen suunnittelu. Suunnitelmat on toteutettu käyttämällä simulointi- ja optimointiohjelmistoja, jotka perustuvat tieteellisiin malleihin ja matemaattiseen ohjelmointiin. Kuitenkin päätöksentekijän /jien (PT) preferenssit määrittelevät optimaalisen aikataulun metsänhoidolle. Metsäsuunnitelmia tuotettaessa menetelmän tulisi olla mahdollisimman vapaa suunnittelijan omista arvoista ja mielipiteistä. Jotta lähestymistapa olisi mahdollisimman PT-ystävällinen, pitäisi päätöksentekijälle esittää useita metsänsuunnittelun vaihtoehtoja, joiden perusteella PT voi tehdä aidosti henkilökohtaisen valintansa. Tuotettujen metsäsuunnitelmien tulisi vastata metsänomistajan sen hetkisiä toiveita ja mieltymyksiä. Jotta suunnitelmien kustannusten ja laadun välille saadaan tasapaino, tarvitsemme työkaluja joilla muokata metsäsuunnittelua paremmin asiakaslähtöiseksi. Tämän tutkimuksen ensimmäinen tavoite oli analysoida eri preferenssien hankintamenetelmiä, sekä selvittää saadun tiedon määrän vaikutus suunnitelman valintaan. Artikkeleissa I ja II suunnitelma valittiin a posteriori menetelmän avulla. Artikkelissa III preferenssien hankinta toteutettiin interaktiivisesti, siten, että hyväksyttävä metsäsuunnitelma saatiin aikaiseksi hyödyntämällä sekä a priori, että a posteriori preferenssien valintamenetelmiä. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite oli kehittää tekniikoita, joilla sisällytetään preferenssitietoa osaksi optimointimenetelmiä. Artikkelissa IV on käytetty sarjaa tavoiteohjelmointimalleja, joiden tavoitteena oli sisällyttää preferenssitietoja useilta eri päätöksentekijöiltä, joiden pohjalta sitten tuotettiin useita PT:itä potentiaalisesti kiinnostavia metsäsuunnitelmia. Artikkeli V kehitti uuden tavan formuloida tavoiteohjelmoinnin tehtävä, , joka erottaa tavoitteiden käsittelyn kahteen osaan; toinen pyrkii löytämään mahdollisimman tasapainoisen ratkaisun ja toinen pyrkii löytämään kaikista tehokkaimman ratkaisuyhdistelmän

Cost-efficiency analysis of multiple ecosystem services across forest management regimes

publishedVersio

Assessing the importance of detailed forest inventory information using stochastic programming

acceptedVersio

Forest multifunctionality is not resilient to intensive forestry

There is ample evidence that intensive management of ecosystems causes declines in biodiversity as well as in multiple ecosystem services, i.e., in multifunctionality. However, less is known about the permanence and reversibility of these responses. To gain insight into whether multifunctionality can be sustained under intensive management, we developed a framework building on the concept of resilience: a system's ability to avoid displacement and to return or transform to a desired state. We applied it to test the ability of forest multifunctionality to persist during and recover from intensive management for timber production in a boreal forest. Using forest growth simulations and multiobjective optimization, we created alternative future paths where the forest was managed for maximal timber production, for forest multifunctionality, or first maximal timber production and then multifunctionality. We show that forest multifunctionality is substantially diminished under intensive forestry and recovers the slower, the longer intensive forestry has been continued. Intensive forestry thus not only reduces forest multifunctionality but hinders its recovery should management goals change, i.e., weakens its resilience. The results suggest a need to adjust ecosystem management according to long-term sustainability goals already today

Cost-efficiency analysis of multiple ecosystem services across forest management regimes

Forest management is at the crossroads of economic, environmental, and social goals, often requiring strategic trade-offs. As global demands surge, it's vital to employ management strategies fostering multifunctional landscapes, enabling ecosystem integrity while procuring resources. Historically, the boreal forest in Fennoscandia has been intensively managed for timber, causing environmental shifts and conflicts with biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation policies. Application of current management practices while increasing harvests are a threat to both biodiversity and carbon stocks. To explore this issue, we quantify the cost-efficiency of two forest management regimes: rotation forestry (RF) and continuous cover forestry (CCF), considering specific forest attributes like soil type (mineral and peat soils), site type (fertility classes) and tree stand age, which have been underexplored in previous research. We simulated 45,559 forest stands for 100 years in Northern boreal forests of Finland. We proposed two straightforward cost-efficiency indices (CEI) to evaluate the performance of these management regimes, specifically focusing on their impact on economic output, biodiversity conservation (measured as a biodiversity index for six forest vertebrates, including five bird species and one mammal) and carbon stock. Our findings suggest that continuous cover forestry holds the potential to deliver more cost-efficient ecosystem services and maintain greater biodiversity compared to rotation forestry approaches. Continuous cover forestry, however, is not optimal for all at management units, which calls for alternative management options depending on the stand characteristics. The cost-efficiency indices performance of rotation forestry and continuous cover forestry depend on the characteristics of the initial stand which is largely determined by the previous management of the stand. Our results contribute to guiding forest management towards enhanced sustainability and ecological balance. The great variation in stand characteristics suggest a need for diverse management strategies to create multifunctional landscapes. Our proposed cost-efficiency indices could serve as practical tools for decision-making

Interpreting wind damage risk-how multifunctional forest management impacts standing timber at risk of wind felling

Landscape multifunctionality, a widely accepted challenge for boreal forests, aims to simultaneously provide timber, non-timber ecosystem services, and shelter for biodiversity. However, multifunctionality requires the use of novel forest management regimes optimally combined over the landscape, and an increased share of sets asides. It remains unclear how this combination will shape stand vulnerability to wind disturbances and exposed timber volume. We combined forest growth simulations and multi-objective optimization to create alternative landscape level forest management scenarios. Management choices were restricted to 1) rotation forestry, 2) continuous cover forestry, and 3) all regimes allowed over a harvest intensity gradient from completely set aside landscapes to maximal economic gain. Estimates for the stands' structural and environmental characteristics were used to predict the stand level wind damage probability. We evaluated averaged wind-exposed standing timber volume and changing forest structure under management scenarios. Intensive rotation forestry reduced tree heights and wind damage risk, but also reduced landscape multifunctionality. Conversely, continuous cover forestry maintained multifunctionality but increased wind damage probability due to taller trees and higher thinning frequency. Overall, continuous cover forestry lowers the total volume of wind exposed timber at any given time compared with rotation forestry. Nevertheless, a selective application of rotation forestry contributes to high economic gains and increases landscape heterogeneity. A combination of management approaches across landscapes provides an efficient way to reduce the amount of wind-exposed timber volume while also increasing habitat for vertebrate and non-vertebrate species and satisfying high timber demands

Cost-effective biodiversity protection through multiuse-conservation landscapes

publishedVersio

Suomen metsien hakkuumahdollisuudet vuosina 2016–2045 valtakunnan metsien 12. inventointiin perustuen

Valtakunnan metsien 12. inventoinnin vuosina 2014–2018 mitatun maastoaineiston perusteella laskettu hakkuumahto eli metsänhoidon suosituksia noudattaen puuntuotannon metsämaalla hakattavissa olevan tukki- ja kuitupuun mitat täyttävän runkopuun vuotuinen määrä oli keskimäärin 138,9 milj. m3/v inventointia seuraavalla kymmenvuotiskaudella 2016–2025. Suurin ylläpidettävissä oleva aines- ja energiapuun hakkuukertymäarvio oli maakunnittaisista kestävyysrajoitteista johtuen keskimäärin 80,5 milj. m3/v runkopuuta vastaavalla kaudella. Arviota rajoitti erityisesti ainespuun hakkuukertymän kausittaiset tasaisuusvaatimukset ja Etelä-Suomen maakuntien alueilla lisäksi nettotulojen kausittaiset tasaisuusvaatimukset. Turvemaiden osuus ainespuukertymästä oli keskimäärin 22 % kaudella 2016–2025. 30 vuoden tarkastelujaksolla 2016–2045 suurin ylläpidettävissä oleva hakkuukertymäarvio oli keskimäärin 86,3 milj. m3/v, ja hakkuumahdollisuudet lisääntyivät laskelman aikana suhteellisesti eniten Päijät-Hämeen, Etelä-Karjalan, Etelä-Savon, Kainuun ja Lapin maakuntien alueilla. Vuosina 2016–2018 tilastoitu runkopuun hakkuukertymä Suomessa oli keskimäärin 91 % suurimman ylläpidettävissä olevan hakkuukertymän arviosta kaudella 2016–2025 ja 85 % tarkastelujaksolla 2016–2045. Maakunnittain oli kuitenkin huomattavaa vaihtelua, sillä Uudenmaan, Kanta-Hämeen, Kymenlaakson ja Etelä-Karjalan maakuntien alueilla vuosina 2016–2018 tilastoitu runkopuun hakkuukertymätaso ylitti suurimman ylläpidettävissä olevan hakkuukertymän 30 vuoden tarkastelujakson keskimääräisen arvion. Suurimman ylläpidettävissä olevan hakkuukertymäarvion mukainen runkopuun kokonaispoistuma oli keskimäärin 87 % runkopuun kasvuarviosta kaudella 2016–2025 ja 93 % tarkastelujaksolla 2016–2045 koko metsä- ja kitumaalla. Laskelma oli puuston runkotilavuutta lisäävä lukuun ottamatta Ahvenanmaan, Varsinais-Suomen, Satakunnan, Kanta-Hämeen, Pirkanmaan, Keski-Suomen ja Etelä-Pohjanmaan maakuntien alueita. Koko Suomessa runkotilavuuden arvioitiin lisääntyvän 30 vuoden tarkastelujaksolla 2 691 milj. m3:iin (+9 %). Laskelmissa sovelletut oletukset mm. laskentakorkokannasta, kasvuntasosta ja ainespuuhakkuiden hukkapuusta vaikuttivat huomattavasti laadittuihin hakkuumahdollisuusarvioihin. Laskelmien tuloksena saatujen hakkuukertymätasojen lisäksi laskelmaoletukset vaikuttivat myös mm. kasvatus- ja uudistushakkuiden suhteelliseen edullisuuteen ja siten laskelmissa valittujen hakkuiden rakenteeseen

Integrating wind disturbances into forest planning: a stochastic programming approach

Forest disturbances challenge our ability to carefully plan for sustainable use of forest resources. As forest disturbances are stochastic, we cannot plan for the disturbance at any specific time or location. However, we can prepare for the possibility of a disturbance by integrating its potential intensity range and frequency when developing forest management plans. This study uses stochastic programming to integrate wind intensity (wind speed) and wind event frequency (number of occurrences) into the forest planning process on a small coastal Finnish forest landscape. We used a mechanistic model to quantify the critical wind speed for tree felling, with a Monte Carlo approach to include wind damage and salvage logging into forest management alternatives. We apply a stochastic programming model to explore two objectives: maximizing the expected forest net present value or maximizing the even-flow of income. To assess the effects of improper wind risk assumptions in planning, we compare the results when optimizing for correct versus incorrect wind intensity and frequency assumptions. When maximizing for net present value, the impacts of misidentifying wind intensity and frequency are minor, likely due to harvests planned immediately as trees reach maturity. For the case when maximizing even-flow of income, incorrectly identifying wind intensity and frequency severely impacts the ability to meet the required harvest targets and reduces the expected net present value. The specific utility of risk mitigation therefore depends on the planning problem. Overall, we show that incorporating wind disturbances into forest planning can inform forest owners about how they can manage wind risk based on their specific risk preferences

Sectoral policies cause incoherence in forest management and ecosystem service provisioning

Various national policies guide forest use, but often with competing policy objectives leading to divergent management paradigms. Incoherent policies may negatively impact the sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services (FES), and forest multifunctionality. There is uncertainty among policymakers about the impacts of policies on the real world. We translated the policy documents of Finland into scenarios including the quantitative demands for FES, representing: the national forest strategy (NFS), the biodiversity strategy (BDS), and the bioeconomy strategy (BES). We simulated a Finland-wide systematic sample of forest stands with alternative management regimes and climate change. Finally, we used multi-objective optimization to identify the combination of management regimes matching best with each policy scenario and analysed their long-term effects on FES.The NFS scenario proved to be the most multifunctional, targeting the highest number of FES, while the BES had the lowest FES targets. However, the NFS was strongly oriented towards the value chain of wood and bioenergy and had a dominating economic growth target, which caused strong within-policy conflicts and hindered reaching biodiversity targets. The BDS and BES scenarios were instead more consistent but showed either sustainability gaps in terms of providing timber resources (BDS) or no improvements in forest biodiversity (BES). All policy scenarios resulted in forest management programs dominated by continuous cover forestry, set-aside areas, and intensive management zones, with proportions depending on the policy focus. Our results highlight for the first time the conflicts among national sectoral policies in terms of management requirements and effects on forest multifunctionality. The outcomes provide leverage points for policymakers to increase coherence among future policies and improve implementation of multiple uses of forests