Eruption type probability and eruption source parameters at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes (Ecuador) with uncertainty quantification

Future occurrence of explosive eruptive activity at Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha volcanoes, Ecuador, is assessed probabilistically, utilizing expert elicitation. Eight eruption types were considered for each volcano. Type event probabilities were evaluated for the next eruption at each volcano and for at least one of each type within the next 100 years. For each type, we elicited relevant eruption source parameters (duration, average plume height, and total tephra mass). We investigated the robustness of these elicited evaluations by deriving probability uncertainties using three expert scoring methods. For Cotopaxi, we considered both rhyolitic and andesitic magmas. Elicitation findings indicate that the most probable next eruption type is an andesitic hydrovolcanic/ash-emission (~ 26–44% median probability), which has also the highest median probability of recurring over the next 100 years. However, for the next eruption at Cotopaxi, the average joint probabilities for sub-Plinian or Plinian type eruption is of order 30–40%—a significant chance of a violent explosive event. It is inferred that any Cotopaxi rhyolitic eruption could involve a longer duration and greater erupted mass than an andesitic event, likely producing a prolonged emergency. For Guagua Pichincha, future eruption types are expected to be andesitic/dacitic, and a vulcanian event is judged most probable for the next eruption (median probability ~40–55%); this type is expected to be most frequent over the next 100 years, too. However, there is a substantial probability (possibly >40% in average) that the next eruption could be sub-Plinian or Plinian, with all that implies for hazard levels

Evaluating the spatial uncertainty of future land abandonment in a mountain valley (Vicdessos, Pyrenees-France) : insights form model parameterization and experiments

International audienceEuropean mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes. The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services, LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies. Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the defintion of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains (France) and 2 scenarios illustratins 2 land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The defintion of static vs. dynamic and quantitative vs. qualitative (discretized) driving factors, and their combination resulted in 4 parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the unceertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers

Characterization and regulation of the 3beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase isomerase enzyme in the rat sciatic nerve

In the peripheral nervous system, progesterone (PROG) has a stimulatory effect on myelination. It could be derived from local synthesis, as Schwann cells in culture express the 3beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase (3beta-HSD) and convert pregnenolone (PREG) to PROG. Although 3beta-HSD mRNA can be detected by RT-PCR in peripheral nerves, the activity of the enzyme has so far not been demonstrated and characterized in nerve tissue. In this study, we show that homogenates prepared from rat sciatic nerves contain a functional 3beta-HSD enzyme and we have analysed its kinetic properties and its regulation by steroids. The activity of 3beta-HSD in homogenates was evaluated using 3H-labelled PREG as a substrate and NAD+ as a cofactor, the levels of steroids formed were calculated either by extrapolating the relationship between tritiated peaks obtained by TLC to the initial amount of PREG, or by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry determination. A rapid increase in PROG formation was found between 0 and 50 min of incubation and no further significant changes were observed between 1 and 4 h. The calculated Km value (1.06 +/- 0.19 microm) was close to the values described for the 3beta-HSD type-I and type-IV isoforms. Trilostane, a competitive inhibitor of the 3beta-HSD caused a potent inhibition of the rate of conversion of PREG to PROG (IC50 = 4.06 +/- 2.58 microm). When the effects of different steroids were tested, both oestradiol and PROG significantly inhibited the conversion of PREG to PROG.Fil: Coirini, Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Fundación de Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental; Argentina. Inserm; FranciaFil: Gouezou, M.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Delespierre, B.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Liere, P.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Pianos, A.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Eychenne, B.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Schumacher, Michael. Inserm; FranciaFil: Guennoun, Rachida. Inserm; Franci

3ß-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase expression in rat spinal cord

In adult male rats, 3beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase/delta5-delta4-isomerase (3beta-HSD) expressing cells were identified in the spinal cord from the cervical to the sacral segments. An in situ hybridization study, using an oligonucleotide common to the four known isoforms of rat 3beta-HSD, revealed its mRNA in gray matter. Measurements of optical densities in autoradiograms showed the following regional distribution: dorsal horn (layers I-III) > central canal (layer X) > or = ventral horn (layers VIII-IX) > ventral funiculus = lateral funiculus. At the cellular level, the number of grains was higher on the large motoneurons than on small neurons of the dorsal horn, but the grain density per cell was similar. Further evidence for the expression of 3beta-HSD in the spinal cord was obtained by western blot analysis, which revealed an immunoreactive protein of approximately 45 kDa in the dorsal and ventral parts of the spinal cord. Castration and adrenalectomy did not influence the expression of 3beta-HSD mRNA and protein. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry measurements showed higher levels of pregnenolone and progesterone in the spinal cord than in the plasma. After castration and adrenalectomy, their levels remained elevated in the spinal cord, suggesting that these neurosteroids may be synthesized locally. The wide distribution of 3beta-HSD, and the high levels of pregnenolone and progesterone in the spinal cord even after castration and adrenalectomy, strongly suggest a potential endogenous production of progesterone and an important signalling function of this steroid in the spinal cord.Fil: Coirini, Hector. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Fundación de Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental. Instituto de Biología y Medicina Experimental; Argentina. Inserm; FranciaFil: Gouezou, M.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Liere, P.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Delespierre, B.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Pianos, A.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Eychenne, B.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Schumacher, M.. Inserm; FranciaFil: Guennoun, R... Inserm; Franci

Anti-mullerian hormone produces endocrine sex reversal of fetal ovaries

International audienc

Progesterone and its metabolites increase myelin basic protein expression in organotypic slice cultures of rat cerebellum

International audienceAbstract We have previously shown that progesterone (PROG) is synthesized by Schwann cells and promotes myelin formation in the peripheral nervous system (PNS). We now report that this neurosteroid also stimulates myelination in organotypic slice cultures of 7‐day‐old (P7) rat and mouse cerebellum. Myelination was evaluated by immunofluorescence analysis of the myelin basic protein (MBP). After 7 days in culture (7DIV), we found that adding PROG (2–5 × 10 −5 M) to the culture medium caused a fourfold increase in MBP expression when compared to control slices. The effect of PROG on MBP expression involves the classical intracellular PROG receptor (PR): the selective PR agonist R5020 significantly increased MBP expression and the PR antagonist mifepristone (RU486) completely abolished the effect of PROG on this MBP expression. Moreover, treatment of P7‐cerebellar slice cultures from PR knockout (PRKO) mice with PROG had no significant effect on MBP expression. PROG was metabolized in the cerebellar slices to 5α‐dihydroprogesterone (5α‐DHP) and to the GABA A receptor‐active metabolite 3α,5α‐tetrahydroprogesterone (3α,5α‐THP, allopregnanolone). The 5α‐reductase inhibitor L685‐273 partially inhibited the effect of PROG, and 3α,5α‐THP (2–5 × 10 −5 M) significantly stimulated the MBP expression, although to a lesser extent than PROG. The increase in MBP expression by 3α,5α‐THP involved GABA A receptors, as it could be inhibited by the selective GABA A receptor antagonist bicuculline. These findings suggest that progestins stimulate MBP expression and consequently suggest an increase in CNS myelination via two signalling systems, the intracellular PR and membrane GABA A receptors, and they confirm a new role of GABA A receptors in myelination