Essays on the Impact of Renegotiating Trade Agreements

This thesis explores the impact of the renegotiation of trade agreements when there is a threat that trade barriers could increase. The thesis addresses the following questions: 1. What is the impact on firm exporting decisions of the trade policy uncertainty generated by the renegotiation of trade agreements? 2. What is the role of a customer base in export dynamics, and does an exporter customer base respond to the renegotiation of trade agreements? 3. How do industries restructure in response to changing economic competition driven by trade agreements? 4. What is the impact of exchange rate movements (driven by the renegotiation of a trade agreement) on exporter prices and quantities, and are the effects heterogeneous across firms? 5. How important are firms that trade goods internationally for the UK economy and how could these firms respond to the future renegotiation of trade agreements following Brexit? The second chapter (joint with Meredith Crowley and Lu Han) introduces the concept that the renegotiation of a trade agreement introduces uncertainty into the economic environment. In June 2016 the British electorate unexpectedly voted to leave the European Union, introducing a new era in which the UK and EU began to renegotiate the terms of the UK-EU trading relationship. We exploit this natural experiment to estimate the impact of uncertainty associated with trade agreement re-negotiation on the export participation decision of firms in the UK. Starting from a model of exporting under trade policy uncertainty, we derive testable predictions of firm entry into and exit from a foreign market under an uncertain `renegotiation regime'. Empirically, we develop measures of the trade policy uncertainty facing firms exporting from the UK to the EU after June 2016. Using the universe of UK export transactions at the firm and product level and cross-sectional variation in `threat point' tariffs, we estimate that entry in 2016 would have been 5.0% higher and exit 6.1% lower if firms exporting from the UK to the EU had not faced increased trade policy uncertainty after June 2016. In the third chapter (joint with Davide Rigo) we investigate the role of customer base in export market dynamics. First, we provide evidence that exporters grow in a foreign market by accumulating customer base. Second, we show that customer base can explain up to 30% of the growth in a destination market. Third, we explore potential mechanisms and find no evidence that exporters use customer specific price dynamics to attract new customers or expand existing customer relationships. Fourth, we explore how exporters adjust customer base in response to changes in market access by exploiting the trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation of the UK-EU trade relationship and Sterling depreciation following the Brexit referendum. We show that French exporters in 2016-2017 were less likely to enter into exporting to the UK and incumbent exporters acquired a lower number of new buyers in the UK compared with the other European countries. Overall our results indicate that customer base is an important margin for export market growth and provides another margin that firms may adjust in response to changing market conditions. The fourth chapter shows that the rise in import competition from China following China's accession to the World Trade Organization contributed to the decline in UK manufacturing activity post 2000. A significant proportion of this decline in manufacturing activity is driven by firms switching their industrial activity out of manufacturing production and towards services. In particular, firms switch into business services such as research and development and wholesale and retail. This paper also shows that the speed of the transition across industries is fast, with the majority of the employment and turnover effects occurring in the first few years. This is primarily driven by the largest firms, as the switching effect on the number of firms is substantially smaller. The final chapter explores why the value of UK goods exports increased following depreciation of Sterling after the Brexit referendum. This paper shows that most of the response was initially driven by an increase in prices, although export quantities did also increase. The largest exporters were most responsive to the depreciation, increasing both quantities and prices more than smaller exporters. The paper also provides new facts on the importance of firms engaged in international trade in goods for the UK economy. Only 3% of UK firms are engaged in international trade in goods, yet these firms account for over 30% of employment and over 50% of UK turnover. The top 1% of goods exporters are pivotal in shaping UK export patterns as they account for 70% of exports, 5% of employment, and 12% of turnover

How damaging would a 'no-deal' Brexit be?

The UK's decision to leave the EU has created huge uncertainty over what sort of trade agreement we might have with the bloc in the future, and the resulting tariffs that UK firms can expect to pay in order to export to the EU. Meredith Crowley, Giancarlo Corsetti, Oliver Exton, and Lu Han (Cambridge University) explain how damaging a 'no-deal' scenario would actually be

Air exposure of coral is a significant source of dimethylsulfide (DMS) to the atmosphere

Corals are prolific producers of dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). High atmospheric concentrations of the DMSP breakdown product dimethylsulfide (DMS) have been linked to coral reefs during low tides. DMS is a potentially key sulfur source to the tropical atmosphere, but DMS emission from corals during tidal exposure is not well quantified. Here we show that gas phase DMS concentrations (DMSgas) increased by an order of magnitude when three Indo-Pacific corals were exposed to air in laboratory experiments. Upon re-submersion, an additional rapid rise in DMSgas was observed, reflecting increased production by the coral and/or dissolution of DMS-rich mucus formed by the coral during air exposure. Depletion in DMS following re-submersion was likely due to biologically-driven conversion of DMS to dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO). Fast Repetition Rate fluorometry showed downregulated photosynthesis during air exposure but rapid recovery upon re-submersion, suggesting that DMS enhances coral tolerance to oxidative stress during a process that can induce photoinhibition. We estimate that DMS emission from exposed coral reefs may be comparable in magnitude to emissions from other marine DMS hotspots. Coral DMS emission likely comprises a regular and significant source of sulfur to the tropical marine atmosphere, which is currently unrecognised in global DMS emission estimates and Earth System Models

High-performance Work Practices in Europe: Challenges of Diffusion

Although the evidence supports the role of high-performance work practices (HPWPs) in underpinning improvements in organisational performance, it is striking that so few companies in Europe seem willing to introduce them. The purpose of this article is to examine the barriers to the dissemination of HPWPs, and especially the challenges and dilemmas it presents to policy makers at the design stage. The article is based on in-depth, semi-structured interviews with the principal officials responsible for seven HPWP programmes across six European countries, as well as on extensive secondary material. The interviews were analysed to identify key issues of concern, and then grouped to provide general insights into the operation of HPWP programmes. The article identifies a number of challenges common to all the programmes that need resolution, including tensions between research and dissemination, whether programmes should aim at breadth or depth, and the role of the social partners. It accordingly advocates a new research agenda that focuses on policies to achieve their wider diffusion, which will be of particular value to policy-makers. It also proposes that research should be directed away from replicating studies that demonstrate the effectiveness of HPWPs and towards analyses of constraints on dissemination and the means to overcome them

What about the gatekeepers? School principals’ and school guidance counsellors’ attitudes towards computer science in secondary schools

Background and Context: School principals and school guidance counsellors can be very influential in deciding what subjects are offered on the curriculum, how they are promoted and who they are targeted to. For that reason, exploring their views of Computer Science (CS) as a subject can help unearth potential barriers that may hinder the wider uptake of the subject in schools. Objective: This study aimed to explore school principals and school guidance counsellors’ views of CS as a subject at upper second level education in Ireland as part of the launch of a new subject. Method: Using one-to-one semi-structured interviews, the study sought the views of a sample pf 10 school principals and 10 school guidance counsellors from secondary schools in Ireland that had recently introduced the subject of CS on the curriculum. Findings: The study found contradictory views expressed, where the participants emphasised the value of the subject for all students, while at the same time presenting it as more suitable for certain types of students - highlight the tensions between the espoused values and the actual reality of practice

Exploring teachers’ professional development to support the roll-out of computer science in Irish second-level schools

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