Composite Poisson Models For Goal Scoring

Goal scoring in sports such as hockey and soccer is often modeled as a Poisson process. We work with a Poisson model where the mean goals scored by the home team is the sum of parameters for the home team\u27s offense, the road team\u27s defense, and a home advantage. The mean goals for the road team is the sum of parameters for the road team\u27s offense and for the home team\u27s defense. The best teams have a large offensive parameter value and a small defensive parameter value. A level-2 model connects the offensive and defensive parameters for the k teams. Parameter inference is made by imagining that goals can be classified as being strictly due to offense, to (lack of) defense, or to home-field advantage. Though not a realistic description, such a breakdown is consistent with our model assumptions and the literature, and we can work out the conditional distributions and generate random partitions to facilitate inference about the team parameters. We use the conditional Binomial distribution, given the Poisson totals and the current parameter values, to partition each observed goal total at each iteration in an MCMC algorithm

LIFETIME PASSIVE SMOKING AND CANCER RISK

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/25707/1/0000261.pd

Daclatasvir in combination with asunaprevir and beclabuvir for hepatitis C virus genotype 1 infection with compensated cirrhosis

Importance Effective and well-tolerated, interferon-free regimens are needed for treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and cirrhosis. Objective All-oral therapy with daclatasvir (nonstructural protein 5A [NS5A] inhibitor), asunaprevir (NS3 protease inhibitor), and beclabuvir (nonnucleoside NS5B inhibitor), with or without ribavirin, was evaluated in patients with HCV genotype 1 infection and compensated cirrhosis. Design, Setting, and Participants The UNITY-2 study was conducted between December 2013 and October 2014 at 49 outpatient sites in the United States, Canada, France, and Australia. Patients were treated for 12 weeks, with 24 weeks of follow-up after completion of treatment. Adult patients with cirrhosis were enrolled in 2 cohorts: HCV treatment-naive or HCV treatment-experienced. Statistical analyses were based on historical controls; there were no internal controls. Interventions All patients received twice-daily treatment with the fixed-dose combination of daclatasvir (30 mg), asunaprevir (200 mg), and beclabuvir (75 mg). In addition, patients within each cohort were stratified according to HCV genotype 1 subtype (1a or 1b) and randomly assigned (1:1) to receive double-blinded weight-based ribavirin (1000-1200 mg/d) or matching placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures Sustained virologic response at posttreatment week 12 (SVR12). Results One hundred twelve patients in the treatment-naive group and 90 patients in the treatment-experienced group were treated and included in the analysis. Enrolled patients were 88% white with a median age of 58 years (treatment-naive group) or 60 years (treatment-experienced group); 74% had genotype 1a infection. SVR12 rates were 98% (97.5% CI, 88.9%-100%) for patients in the treatment-naive group and 93% (97.5% CI, 85.0%-100.0%) for those in the treatment-experienced group when ribavirin was included in the regimen. With the fixed-dose combination alone, response rates were 93% (97.5% CI, 85.4%-100.0%) for patients in the treatment-naive group and 87% (97.5% CI, 75.3%-98.0%) for those in the treatment-experienced group. Three serious adverse events were considered to be treatment related and there were 4 adverse event–related discontinuations. Treatment-emergent grade 3 or 4 alanine aminotransferase elevations were observed in 4 patients, of which 1 had concomitant total bilirubin elevation. Conclusions and Relevance In this open-label uncontrolled study, patients with chronic HCV genotype 1 infection and cirrhosis who received a 12-week oral fixed-dose regimen of daclatasvir, asunaprevir, and beclabuvir, with or without ribavirin, achieved high rates of SVR12

Retreatment for hepatitis C virus direct-acting antiviral therapy virological failure in primary and tertiary settings: The REACH-C cohort

Virological failure occurs in a small proportion of people treated for hepatitis C virus (HCV) with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapies. This study assessed retreatment for virological failure in a large real-world cohort. REACH-C is an Australian observational study (n = 10,843) evaluating treatment outcomes of sequential DAA initiations across 33 health services between March 2016 to June 2019. Virological failure retreatment data were collected until October 2020. Of 408 people with virological failure (81% male; median age 53; 38% cirrhosis; 56% genotype 3), 213 (54%) were retreated once; 15 were retreated twice. A range of genotype specific and pangenotypic DAAs were used to retreat virological failure in primary (n = 56) and tertiary (n = 157) settings. Following sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir availability in 2019, the proportion retreated in primary care increased from 21% to 40% and median time to retreatment initiation declined from 294 to 152 days. Per protocol (PP) sustained virological response (SVR12) was similar for people retreated in primary and tertiary settings (80% vs 81%; p = 1.000). In regression analysis, sofosbuvir/velpatasvir/voxilaprevir (vs. other regimens) significantly decreased likelihood of second virological failure (PP SVR12 88% vs. 77%; adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.29; 95%CI 0.11–0.81); cirrhosis increased likelihood (PP SVR12 69% vs. 91%; AOR 4.26; 95%CI 1.64–11.09). Indigenous Australians had lower likelihood of retreatment initiation (AOR 0.36; 95%CI 0.15–0.81). Treatment setting and prescriber type were not associated with retreatment initiation or outcome. Virological failure can be effectively retreated in primary care. Expanded access to simplified retreatment regimens through decentralized models may increase retreatment uptake and reduce HCV-related mortality

Teaching Regression Using American Football Scores

Scores in professional American football games follow a distribution that is noticeably skewed towards larger values. However, the difference between the home teams’ scores and the road teams’ scores (the point spreads) do follow a distribution that is very close to Normal. Furthermore, the residuals from linear regressions of the point spreads on the Las Vegas betting spreads and on partial game point spreads (e.g., the point spreads at half-time) are also very close to Normal, and suggest that a linear model is appropriate. These data are also suitable for logistic regression problems, such as estimating the probability that the home team wins given the betting spread, the half time score, or both. This presents an ideal setting for teaching simple and multiple linear regression and logistic regression procedures for any level of statistics course