Plant responses to climate change

Over a short period of time, anthropogenic climate change has impacted plants in a range of ways. One of the challenges for ecologists is to determine the extent to which plants have responded to these changes in situ. In this thesis, I quantified the extent to which species have already changed their traits, physiology and phenology in response to climate change. Relatively little was known about how southern hemisphere plants have changed in response to climate change, because of the scarcity of historic data to compare with modern plants. I addressed this problem by developing a novel framework – ‘Climate Contrast Resurrection Ecology’. I found that the traits of plants grown from historic and modern seeds differed more in areas that have experienced greater changes in climate through time. Plant regeneration traits (for example seed mass, seed shape and germination rate) were more responsive than plant growth traits (such as stem density). Likewise, plant morphological traits were more responsive to climate change than plant physiological traits (including chemical defence traits) and gas exchange variables (such as photosynthetic rate and plant intrinsic water use efficiency). I found that changes in plant traits tended to be more closely related to changes in climate extremes (including heatwave duration and dry spell duration) and variability than to changes in mean temperature and mean precipitation. Finally, I used a combination of new field data and historic data from field and herbarium records to quantify shifts in flowering phenology since the mid-1800s. I found that several species were showing delays rather than advances in flowering. Across published literature/available data, a lower proportion of southern hemisphere plants were advancing in their flowering time than plants in the northern hemisphere. Overall, my results show that some plant traits have responded to large and rapid changes in climate in the past. However, I found limited trends in the types of species that were responding to climate change including no differences between species’ growth forms and no phylogenetic patterns in species’ responses to climate change. Thus, it remains difficult to predict which species will be able to survive future climate change and which species will be most at risk. My thesis provides new evidence for plants’ abilities to respond to climate change and gives new information about the ways in which species’ morphologies, physiologies and phenologies are shifting. I hope that the methods developed here, and my results, will assist future predictions and studies of how species may change and survive under continued climate change

Alpine plants are on the move: Quantifying distribution shifts of Australian alpine plants through time

Aim Alpine plant species’ distributions are thought to have been shifting to higher elevations in response to climate change. By moving upslope, species can occupy cooler and more suitable environments as climate change warms their current ranges. Despite evidence of upslope migration in the northern hemisphere, there is limited evidence for elevational shifts in southern hemisphere plants. Our study aimed to determine if alpine plants in Australia have migrated upslope in the last 2 to 6 decades. Location Kosciuszko National Park, NSW, Australia. Methods We collated historic occurrence data for 36 Australian alpine plant species from herbarium specimens and historic field observations and combined these historic data with modern occurrence data collected in the field. Results Eleven of the thirty-six species had shifted upslope in mean elevation and four species showed downslope elevational shifts. The rate of change for upslope shifts varied between 4 and 10 m per year and the rate of change for most downslope shifts was between 4 and 8 m per year, with one species shifting downslope at a high rate of 18 m per year. Additionally, some species showed shifts upward in their upper range edge and/or upward or downward shifts in their lower range edge. Five species also showed range contractions in the difference between their lower and upper range edges over time, while two showed range expansions. We found no significant differences in elevational shifts through time among herbaceous dicotyledons, herbaceous monocotyledons and shrubs. Main Conclusions Plant elevational shifts are occurring rapidly in the Australian alpine zone. This may allow species to persist under climate change. However, if current warming trends continue, several species within the Australian alpine zone will likely run out of suitable habitat within a century

Southern hemisphere plants show more delays than advances in flowering phenology

Shifts in flowering phenology have been studied in detail in the northern hemisphere and are a key plant response to climate change. However, there are relatively fewer data on species' phenological shifts in the southern hemisphere. We combined historic field data, data from herbarium specimens dating back to 1842 and modern field data for 37 Australian species to determine whether species were flowering earlier in the year than they had in the past. We also combined our results with data compiled in the southern and northern hemispheres, respectively, to determine whether southern hemisphere species are showing fewer advances in flowering phenology through time. Across our study species, we found that 12 species had undergone significant shifts in flowering time, with four species advancing their flowering and eight species delaying their flowering. The remaining 25 species showed no significant shifts in their flowering phenology. These findings are important because delays or lack of shifts in flowering phenology can lead to mismatches in trophic interactions between plants and pollinators or seed dispersers, which can have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning and primary productivity. Combining our field results with data compiled from the literature showed that only 58.5% of southern hemisphere species were advancing their flowering time, compared with 81.6% of species that were advancing their flowering time in the northern hemisphere. Our study provides further evidence that it is not adequate for ecologists to assume that southern hemisphere ecosystems will respond to future climate change in the same way as ecosystems north of the Equator. Synthesis. Field data and data from the literature indicate that southern hemisphere species are showing fewer advances in their flowering phenology through time, especially in comparison to northern hemisphere species

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. METHODS: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. FINDINGS: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96-1·28). INTERPRETATION: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Effectiveness of a national quality improvement programme to improve survival after emergency abdominal surgery (EPOCH): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background: Emergency abdominal surgery is associated with poor patient outcomes. We studied the effectiveness of a national quality improvement (QI) programme to implement a care pathway to improve survival for these patients. Methods: We did a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial of patients aged 40 years or older undergoing emergency open major abdominal surgery. Eligible UK National Health Service (NHS) hospitals (those that had an emergency general surgical service, a substantial volume of emergency abdominal surgery cases, and contributed data to the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit) were organised into 15 geographical clusters and commenced the QI programme in a random order, based on a computer-generated random sequence, over an 85-week period with one geographical cluster commencing the intervention every 5 weeks from the second to the 16th time period. Patients were masked to the study group, but it was not possible to mask hospital staff or investigators. The primary outcome measure was mortality within 90 days of surgery. Analyses were done on an intention-to-treat basis. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN80682973. Findings: Treatment took place between March 3, 2014, and Oct 19, 2015. 22 754 patients were assessed for elegibility. Of 15 873 eligible patients from 93 NHS hospitals, primary outcome data were analysed for 8482 patients in the usual care group and 7374 in the QI group. Eight patients in the usual care group and nine patients in the QI group were not included in the analysis because of missing primary outcome data. The primary outcome of 90-day mortality occurred in 1210 (16%) patients in the QI group compared with 1393 (16%) patients in the usual care group (HR 1·11, 0·96–1·28). Interpretation: No survival benefit was observed from this QI programme to implement a care pathway for patients undergoing emergency abdominal surgery. Future QI programmes should ensure that teams have both the time and resources needed to improve patient care. Funding: National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research Programme

Hemp's hazy future. by Susan Everingham

Spurred on by the prospect of finding a green alternative to paper pulp and cotton, governments in four states are now undertaking low-narcotic hemp trials

Book review : Plants of subtropical eastern Australia

Review of the Plants of subtropical eastern Australia, Andrew Benwell. CSIRO Publishing, Clayton South, Australia, 2020. 379 pp. Price: AUD$49.99 ISBN: 978148631365

Leaf morphological traits show greater responses to changes in climate than leaf physiological traits and gas exchange variables.

Adaptation to changing conditions is one of the strategies plants may use to survive in the face of climate change. We aimed to determine whether plants' leaf morphological and physiological traits/gas exchange variables have changed in response to recent, anthropogenic climate change. We grew seedlings from resurrected historic seeds from ex-situ seed banks and paired modern seeds in a common-garden experiment. Species pairs were collected from regions that had undergone differing levels of climate change using an emerging framework-Climate Contrast Resurrection Ecology, allowing us to hypothesise that regions with greater changes in climate (including temperature, precipitation, climate variability and climatic extremes) would be greater trait responses in leaf morphology and physiology over time. Our study found that in regions where there were greater changes in climate, there were greater changes in average leaf area, leaf margin complexity, leaf thickness and leaf intrinsic water use efficiency. Changes in leaf roundness, photosynthetic rate, stomatal density and the leaf economic strategy of our species were not correlated with changes in climate. Our results show that leaves do have the ability to respond to changes in climate, however, there are greater inherited responses in morphological leaf traits than in physiological traits/variables and greater responses to extreme measures of climate than gradual changes in climatic means. It is vital for accurate predictions of species' responses to impending climate change to ensure that future climate change ecology studies utilise knowledge about the difference in both leaf trait and gas exchange responses and the climate variables that they respond to

The sex with the reduced sex chromosome dies earlier : a comparison across the tree of life

Many taxa show substantial differences in lifespan between the sexes. However, these differences are not always in the same direction. In mammals, females tend to live longer than males, while in birds, males tend to live longer than females. One possible explanation for these differences in lifespan is the unguarded X hypothesis, which suggests that the reduced or absent chromosome in the heterogametic sex (e.g. the Y chromosome in mammals and the W chromosome in birds) exposes recessive deleterious mutations on the other sex chromosome. While the unguarded X hypothesis is intuitively appealing, it had never been subject to a broad test. We compiled male and female longevity data for 229 species spanning 99 families, 38 orders and eight classes across the tree of life. Consistent with the unguarded X hypothesis, a meta-analysis showed that the homogametic sex, on average, lives 17.6% longer than the heterogametic sex. Surprisingly, we found substantial differences in lifespan dimorphism between female heterogametic species (in which the homogametic sex lives 7.1% longer) and male heterogametic species (in which the homogametic sex lives 20.9% longer). Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering chromosome morphology in addition to sexual selection and environment as potential drivers of sexual dimorphism, and advance our fundamental understanding of the mechanisms that shape an organism's lifespan