Do Stationary Risk Premia Explain It All? Evidence from the Term Struct

Most studies of the expectations theory of the term structure reject the model. However, the significance of the rejections depend strongly upon the form of the test. In this paper, we use the pattern of rejection across maturities to back out the implied behavior of time-varying risk premia and/or market forecasts. We then use a new technique to test whether stationary risk premia alone can be responsible for these rejections. Surprisirj1y, this test is rejected for short maturities up to 6 months, suggesting that time-varying risk premia do not explain it all. We also describe hew this method can be used to test other asset pricing relationships.

Trends in Expected Returns in Currency and Bond Markets

Under conventional notions about rational expectations and market efficiency, expected returns differ from the actual expost returns by a forecast error that is uncorrelated with current information. In this paper, we describe how small departures from conventional notions of rational expectations and market efficiency can produce trends in excess returns. These trends are in addition to the trends typically found in the level of asset prices themselves. We report strong evidence for the presence of additional trends in excess foreign exchange and bond returns. We also estimate the additional trend component in excess returns on foreign exchange and find that it varied between -.8% and 1% for one month returns and between -6% and 8% for three month returns.

Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?

This paper presents a new explanation for the negative correlation between ex post real interest rates and inflation found in earlier empirical studies. We begin by showing that there is a strong negative correlation between the permanent movements in ex post real interest rates and inflation. We argue that such a correlation can arise when people incorporate anticipated shifts in inflation policy into their expectations. Under these circumstances, a shift to lower (higher) inflation will lead to systematically higher (lower) ex post real rates. Using new time series techniques we are able to reject the hypothesis that nominal interest rates were unaffected by anticipated switches in inflation policy in the post-war era. To evaluate the impact of these switches, we then calculate the effects of inflationary expectations upon real rates using a Markov switching model of inflation. Inflation forecasts based upon the estimates of this rational model behave similarly to inflation forecasts from the Livingston survey. When ex ante real interest rates are identified with the Markov models of inflation, we find that ex ante real interest rate does not contain permanent shocks, nor is it related to permanent shocks in inflation.

Peso Problems and Heterogeneous Trading: Evidence From Excess Returns in Foreign Exchange and Euromarkets

Theoretical and empirical studies have treated excess returns as processes with time-varying but temporary disturbances. By contrast, empirical evidence indicates that the behavior of asset price levels can be well-approximated by processes with some permanent disturbances. These two observations restrict the relationship between the levels of asset prices and the excess returns they generate. In this paper, we begin by testing these restrictions for foreign exchange and bond returns. Surprisingly, we reject these restrictions for some returns, implying that excess returns contain some permanent shocks. We then evaluate the possible reasons for these results. This behavior appears inconsistent with conventional models of the risk premia. On the other hand, this behavior could arise from the presence of some traders in the market who have "regressive expectations" or from anticipated shifts in the distribution of asset prices inducing a "peso problem". We test and reject a simple model implied by a steady-state presence of traders with regressive expectations. However, we cannot distinguish between a model where the effects of these traders vary over time or where a peso problem exists or both.

Identification of Vehicle Health Assurance Related Trends

Trend analysis in aviation as related to vehicle health management (VHM) was performed by reviewing the most current statistical and prognostics data available from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident, and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident datasets. In addition, future directions in aviation technology related to VHM research areas were assessed through the Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementations (SERFIs), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Most-Wanted List and recent open safety recommendations, the National Research Council (NRC) Decadal Survey of Civil Aeronautics, and the Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) areas of change. Future research direction in the VHM research areas is evidently strong as seen from recent research solicitations from the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), and VHM-related technologies actively being developed by aviation industry leaders, including GE, Boeing, Airbus, and UTC Aerospace Systems. Given the highly complex VHM systems, modifications can be made in the future so that the Vehicle Systems Safety Technology Project (VSST) technical challenges address inadequate maintenance crew's trainings and skills, and the certification methods of such systems as recommended by the NTSB, NRC, and FAST areas of change

Access to and interventions to improve maternity care services for immigrant women: a narrative synthesis systematic review

Limited evidence suggests experiences of immigrant women accessing and using UK maternity services were mixed but largely poor, and there were few rigorously evaluated interventions focused on improving care

Congenital myasthenic syndrome in Golden Retrievers is associated with a novel COLQ mutation.

BackgroundCongenital myasthenic syndromes (CMSs) are a group of inherited disorders of neuromuscular transmission that may be presynaptic, synaptic, or postsynaptic. Causative mutations have been identified in 4 breeds including the Labrador Retriever, Jack Russell Terrier, Heideterrier, and Danish Pointing Dog.Hypothesis/objectiveClinical and genetic characterization of a neuromuscular disorder in Golden Retriever (GR) puppies.AnimalsFour GR puppies from California were evaluated for generalized muscle weakness beginning at weaning. Biological specimens were collected from the affected puppies, and familial information was obtained. Blood or buccal swabs were obtained from 63 unaffected GRs.MethodsComplete physical, neurological, electrodiagnostic, and histological evaluations and biochemical quantification of muscle acetylcholine receptors were performed. Polymerase chain reaction was used to amplify the 17 exons of COLQ, and sequences were obtained by Sanger sequencing. Variant frequency was assessed in unrelated GRs and a public database.ResultsClinical, neurological, and electrodiagnostic evaluations confirmed a disorder of neuromuscular transmission in a GR family. Sequencing of all exons and splice sites of a primary candidate gene, COLQ, identified a point mutation that predicts an amino acid substitution (G294R). The primary COLQ transcript was absent from affected muscle samples. All affected puppies were homozygous for the mutation, which was not detected outside this GR family or in other breeds.Conclusions and clinical importanceWe confirmed the diagnosis of a CMS in GR puppies and identified a novel COLQ mutation. The COLQ gene encodes the collagenous tail of acetylcholinesterase, the enzyme responsible for termination of skeletal muscle contraction by clearing acetylcholine at the neuromuscular junction. Clinicians and breeders should be aware of this CMS in GR puppies with an early onset of weakness

Achieving equity through 'gender autonomy': the challenges for VET policy and practice

This paper is based on research carried out in an EU Fifth Framework project on 'Gender and Qualification'. The research partners from five European countries investigated the impact of gender segregation in European labour markets on vocational education and training, with particular regard to competences and qualifications. The research explored the part played by gender in the vocational education and training experiences of (i) young adults entering specific occupations in child care, electrical engineering and food preparation/service (ii) adults changing occupations

Systems Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program: Final Report

A three-month study (February to April 2010) of the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) program was conducted. This study comprised three components: (1) a statistical analysis of currently available civilian subsonic aircraft data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system to identify any significant or overlooked aviation safety issues; (2) a high-level qualitative identification of future safety risks, with an assessment of the potential impact of the NASA AvSafe research on the National Airspace System (NAS) based on these risks; and (3) a detailed, top-down analysis of the NASA AvSafe program using an established and peer-reviewed systems analysis methodology. The statistical analysis identified the top aviation "tall poles" based on NTSB accident and FAA incident data from 1997 to 2006. A separate examination of medical helicopter accidents in the United States was also conducted. Multiple external sources were used to develop a compilation of ten "tall poles" in future safety issues/risks. The top-down analysis of the AvSafe was conducted by using a modification of the Gibson methodology. Of the 17 challenging safety issues that were identified, 11 were directly addressed by the AvSafe program research portfolio

Filosofia come stile di vita. Conversazione con Luigi Vero Tarca

OBJECTIVE: To examine factors associated with chronic energy deficiency (CED) and anaemia in disadvantaged Indian adults who are mostly involved in subsistence farming. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study in which we collected information on socio-demographic factors, physical activity, anthropometry, blood haemoglobin concentration, and daily household food intake. These data were used to calculate body mass index (BMI), basal metabolic rate (BMR), daily energy expenditure, and energy and nutrient intake. Multivariable backward stepwise logistic regression was used to assess socioeconomic and lifestyle factors associated with CED (defined as BMI<18 kg/m²) and anaemia. SETTING: The study was conducted in 12 villages, in the Rishi Valley, Andhra Pradesh, India. SUBJECTS: Individuals aged 18 years and above, residing in the 12 villages, were eligible to participate. RESULTS: Data were available for 1178 individuals (45% male, median age 36 years (inter quartile range (IQR 27-50)). The prevalence of CED (38%) and anaemia (25%) was high. Farming was associated with CED in women (2.20, 95% CI: 1.39-3.49) and men (1.71, 95% CI: (1.06-2.74). Low income was also significantly associated with CED, while not completing high school was positively associated with anaemia. Median iron intake was high: 35.7 mg/day (IQR 26-46) in women and 43.4 mg/day (IQR 34-55) in men. CONCLUSIONS: Farming is an important risk factor associated with CED in this rural Indian population and low dietary iron is not the main cause of anaemia. Better farming practice may help to reduce CED in this population