Testing predictors of eruptivity using parametric flux emergence simulations

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are among the most energetic events in the solar system, impacting the near-Earth environment. Flare productivity is empirically known to be correlated with the size and complexity of active regions. Several indicators, based on magnetic-field data from active regions, have been tested for flare forecasting in recent years. None of these indicators, or combinations thereof, have yet demonstrated an unambiguous eruption or flare criterion. Furthermore, numerical simulations have been only barely used to test the predictability of these parameters. In this context, we used the 3D parametric MHD numerical simulations of the self-consistent formation of the flux emergence of a twisted flux tube, inducing the formation of stable and unstable magnetic flux ropes of Leake (2013, 2014). We use these numerical simulations to investigate the eruptive signatures observable in various magnetic scalar parameters and provide highlights on data analysis processing. Time series of 2D photospheric-like magnetograms are used from parametric simulations of stable and unstable flux emergence, to compute a list of about 100 different indicators. This list includes parameters previously used for operational forecasting, physical parameters used for the first time, as well as new quantities specifically developed for this purpose. Our results indicate that only parameters measuring the total non-potentiality of active regions associated with magnetic inversion line properties, such as the Falconer parameters $L_{ss}$, $WL_{ss}$, $L_{sg}$ and $WL_{sg}$, as well as the new current integral $WL_{sc}$ and length $L_{sc}$ parameters, present a significant ability to distinguish the eruptive cases of the model from the non-eruptive cases, possibly indicating that they are promising flare and eruption predictors.Comment: 46 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in Space Weather and Space Climate on June, 8t

X-ray and UV investigation into the magnetic connectivity of a solar flare

We investigate the X-ray and UV emission detected by RHESSI and TRACE in the context of a solar flare on the 16th November 2002 with the goal of better understanding the evolution of the flare. We analysed the characteristics of the X-ray emission in the 12-25 and 25-50 keV energy range while we looked at the UV emission at 1600 {\AA}. The flare appears to have two distinct phases of emission separated by a 25-second time delay, with the first phase being energetically more important. We found good temporal and spatial agreement between the 25-50 keV X-rays and the most intense areas of the 1600 {\AA} UV emission. We also observed an extended 100-arcsecond < 25 keV source that appears coronal in nature and connects two separated UV ribbons later in the flare. Using the observational properties in X-ray and UV wavelengths, we propose two explanations for the flare evolution in relation to the spine/fan magnetic field topology and the accelerated electrons. We find that a combination of quasi separatrix layer reconnection and null-point reconnection is required to account for the observed properties of the X-ray and UV emission.Comment: 8 pages, 8 figures, published in Astronomy and Astrophysic

The flare likelihood and region eruption forecasting (FLARECAST) project: flare forecasting in the big data & machine learning era

The European Union funded the FLARECAST project, that ran from January 2015 until February 2018. FLARECAST had a research-to-operations (R2O) focus, and accordingly introduced several innovations into the discipline of solar flare forecasting. FLARECAST innovations were: first, the treatment of hundreds of physical properties viewed as promising flare predictors on equal footing, extending multiple previous works; second, the use of fourteen (14) different machine learning techniques, also on equal footing, to optimize the immense Big Data parameter space created by these many predictors; third, the establishment of a robust, three-pronged communication effort oriented toward policy makers, space-weather stakeholders and the wider public. FLARECAST pledged to make all its data, codes and infrastructure openly available worldwide. The combined use of 170+ properties (a total of 209 predictors are now available) in multiple machine-learning algorithms, some of which were designed exclusively for the project, gave rise to changing sets of best-performing predictors for the forecasting of different flaring levels, at least for major flares. At the same time, FLARECAST reaffirmed the importance of rigorous training and testing practices to avoid overly optimistic pre-operational prediction performance. In addition, the project has (a) tested new and revisited physically intuitive flare predictors and (b) provided meaningful clues toward the transition from flares to eruptive flares, namely, events associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). These leads, along with the FLARECAST data, algorithms and infrastructure, could help facilitate integrated space-weather forecasting efforts that take steps to avoid effort duplication. In spite of being one of the most intensive and systematic flare forecasting efforts to-date, FLARECAST has not managed to convincingly lift the barrier of stochasticity in solar flare occurrence and forecasting: solar flare prediction thus remains inherently probabilistic

LEUCEMIES AIGUES LYMPHOBLASTIQUES ET MONOSMIE 7 CHEZ L'ENFANT (ANALYSE DES SPECIFICITES CLINIQUES, BIOLOGIQUES ET PRONOSTIQUES CHEZ 14 MALADES TRAITES SELON LE PROTOCOLE EORTC 58881 ET DANS LA LITTERATURE)

PARIS7-Xavier Bichat (751182101) / SudocPARIS-BIUM (751062103) / SudocSudocFranceF

Energetic particles in solar flares and Magnetic Environment

International audienc

Energetic particles in solar flares and Magnetic Environment

International audienc

ETV6 is the target of chromosome 12p deletions in t(12;21) childhood acute lymphocytic leukemia

The presence of ETV6 deletions was investigated in 215 children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) using the loss of heterozygosity (LOH) approach. We used four intragenic or juxtagenic microsatellite markers to detect allelic deletions. In this series of unselected patients, LOH of ETV6 markers was found in 23% of cases (6% of T-ALL and 26% of B lineage ALL) confirming that chromosome 12p12-13 deletions represent a major genetic alteration in childhood ALL, frequently missed by cytogenetic analysis. The presence of a t(12;21)(p13;q22) was studied by RT-PCR and/or FISH in a total of 134 patients (125 B lineage ALL, nine T-ALL) including 42 cases with LOH. Thirty-four out of 44 patients (77%) for whom a t(12;21) was observed displayed LOH of the ETV6 markers. When associated with a t(12;21), ETV6 is very likely to be the target of deletions as indicated by the detection of intragenic deletions in three patients. Although deletion of ETV6 and t(12;21) were associated in most patients, in eight cases (six B lineage and two T-ALL) LOH was detected at the ETV6 locus without ETV6-AML1 hybrid RNA. FISH studies conducted in five of these eight patients confirmed the absence of translocation involving ETV6. In such patients, the other allele of ETV6 could be disrupted by either a small deletion, a point mutation, or an epigenetic modification and it will be of interest to study the structure and expression of the remaining allele of ETV6 in these cases. Alternatively, a tumor suppressor gene located close to ETV6 and CDKN1B could be the target of deletions.SCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Family history of autoimmune thyroid disease and childhood acute leukemia.

International audienceThe association between a familial history of autoimmune disease and childhood acute leukemia was investigated in a French case-control study that, overall, was designed to assess the role of perinatal, infectious, environmental, and genetic factors in the etiology of childhood acute leukemia. Familial histories of autoimmune disease in first- and second-degree relatives were compared in 279 incident cases, 240 cases of acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) and 39 cases of acute non-lymphoblastic leukemia (ANLL), and 285 controls. Recruitment was frequency matched by age, gender, hospital, and ethnic origin. Odds ratios (OR) were estimated using an unconditional regression model taking into account the stratification variables, socioeconomic status, and familial structure. A statistically significant association between a history of autoimmune disease in first- or second-degree relatives and ALL (OR, 1.7; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.0-2.8) was found. A relationship between thyroid diseases overall and ALL (OR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.0-3.9) was observed. This association was more pronounced for potentially autoimmune thyroid diseases (Grave's disease and/or hyperthyroidism and Hashimoto's disease and/or hypothyroidism) (OR, 3.5; 95% CI, 1.1-10.7 and OR, 5.6; 95% CI, 1.0-31.1, respectively for ALL and ANLL), whereas it was not statistically significant for the other thyroid diseases (thyroid goiter, thyroid nodule, and unspecified thyroid disorders) (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 0.7-3.5 and OR, 1.3; 95% CI, 0.2-7.0, respectively, for ALL and ANLL). The results suggest that a familial history of autoimmune thyroid disease may be associated with childhood acute leukemia