1,071 research outputs found
Stability of steady states in a model of pleasant monetarist arithmetic
In this paper the authors study the stability properties of the alternative steady-state equilibria that arise in a neoclassical production model that delivers pleasant monetarist arithmetic. They show that if the government’s monetary policy rule involves a fixed money supply growth rate, then “pleasant arithmetic” steady states—steady states from which a permanent increase in the money growth and inflation rates is associated with a permanent decrease in the real interest rate and a permanent increase in the level of output—are dynamically stable.Econometric models ; Monetary policy
A public finance analysis of multiple reserve requirements
This paper analyzes multiple reserve requirements of the type that have been imposed by a number of developing countries. We show that previous theoretical work on this topic has not succeeded in providing a social welfare rationale for the existence of multiple reserve requirements. We go on to present a model in which it is possible for a multiple reserves regime to improve social welfare relative to simpler regimes involving reserve requirements and/or deposit taxes. We demonstrate the empirical plausibility of our approach by providing a case study of Mexico, a country with extensive historical experience with multiple reserve requirements.Finance, Public ; Developing countries ; Mexico ; Bank reserves
A public finance analysis of multiple reserve requirements
This paper analyzes multiple reserve requirements of the type that have been imposed by a number of developing countries. We show that previous theoretical work on this topic has not succeeded in providing a social welfare rationale for the existence of multiple reserve requirements: in the basic reserve requirements model, any allocation that can be supported by a multiple-reserves regime can also be supported by a single-bond reserve requirement. We go on to present extended versions of the model in which it is possible for a multiple-reserves regime to improve social welfare relative to any single-reserve (currency or bond) and/or deposit-tax regime. We demonstrate the empirical plausibility of our approach by providing a case study of Mexico, a country with extensive historical experience with multiple reserve requirementsDeveloping countries ; Finance, Public
Retail Bank Interest Rate Pass-Through: Is Chile Atypical?
This paper investigates empirically the pass-through of money market interest rates to retail banking interest rates in Chile, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and five European countries. Overall, Chile’s pass-through does not appear atypical. Based on a standard errorcorrection model, we find that, as in most countries considered, Chile’s measured pass-through is incomplete. But Chile’s pass-through is also faster than in many other countries considered and is comparable to that in the United States. While we find no significant evidence of asymmetry in Chile’s pass-through across states of the interest rate or monetary policy cycle, we do find some evidence of parameter instability, around the time of the Asian and Russian crises. However, we do not find evidence that the switch to a more flexible exchange rate regime in 1999 and the “nominalization” of Chile’s interest rate targets in 2001 have affected significantly the pass-through process.
Socially excessive bankruptcy costs and the benefits of interest rate ceilings on loans
The authors study the capital accumulation and welfare implications of ceilings on loan interest rates in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Binding ceilings on loan rates reduce the probability of bankruptcy. Lower bankruptcy rates result in lower bankruptcy and liquidation costs. The authors state conditions under which the resources freed by this cost-saving result increase the steady state capital stock, reduce steady state credit rationing, and raise the steady state welfare of all agents. The authors also argue that the conditions stated are likely to be satisfied in practice. Finally, their results hold even if initially there is capital over-accumulation.Loans ; Interest rates ; Bankruptcy
Government financing in an endogenous growth model with financial market restrictions
In this paper we develop an endogenous growth model with market regulations on explicitly modeled financial intermediaries to examine the effects of alternative government financing schemes on growth, inflation, and welfare. ; We find that in the presence of binding legal reserve requirements, a marginal increase in government spending need not result in a reduction in the rate of economic growth if it is financed with an increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Raising the seigniorage tax base by means of an increase in the reserve requirement retards growth and has an ambiguous effect on inflation. An increase in income tax—financed government spending also suppresses growth and raises inflation although not to the extent that the required seigniorage tax rate alternative would. Switching from seigniorage to income taxation as a source of government finance is growth-reducing but deflationary. From a welfare perspective, the least distortionary way of financing an increase in the government spending requirements is by means of a marginal increase in the seigniorage tax rate. Finally, under the specification of logarithmic preferences, the optimal tax structure is indeterminate.Finance, Public ; Fiscal policy ; Financial markets
On business cycles and countercyclical policies
Since the third quarter of 2000, the U.S. economy began to experience a slowdown in its rate of growth. This slowdown serves as a reminder that the business cycle is still alive and raises the following questions: What do we know about the driving forces behind the business cycle? What should policymakers do in the face of economic fluctuations? ; The authors examine two explanations for business cycles that are well-known in academic circles: the animal spirits theory and the real business cycle theory. The former is closely connected with the Keynesian economic tradition and identifies market participants' mood swings as the key source of economic fluctuations. The second explanation is rooted in the classical economic tradition and views productivity shocks as the driving force behind economic fluctuations. The article then looks at what these theories suggest about countercyclical policies, which try to eliminate business cycle fluctuations or insulate market participants from their effects. The authors conclude that neither theory makes an unambiguous case supporting countercyclical policies. ; This conclusion may come as a surprise to government and business economists who have an ingrained belief in the benefits of such policies. It is important to remember, however, that attempts to understand business cycles and the effects and desirability of policies that may (or may not) moderate them are still at a very early stage.Business cycles ; Monetary policy ; Keynesian economics
On government credit programs
Credit rationing is a common feature of most developing economies. In response to it, the governments of these countries often operate extensive credit programs and lend, either directly or indirectly, to the private sector. We analyze the macroeconomic consequences of a typical government credit program in a small open economy. We show that such programs increase long-run production if the economy is in a development trap and that such programs often lead to endogenously arising aggregate volatility. On the other hand, they may eliminate certain indeterminacies created by endogenous credit market frictions.Banks and banking, Central ; Credit ; Productivity
Barriers to international capital flows: when, why, how big, and for whom?
Until recently, the trend in world capital markets has been toward increasing “globalization.” Recent events in Latin America and Asia have forced a rethinking of the desirability of unrestricted world capital flows. In this paper we ask whether simple restrictions on capital mobility can succeed in reducing the volatility of funds flows, whether such restrictions are consistent with the long-term development of the countries that might impose them, whether such restrictions are beneficial for poorer countries while harming wealthier countries, and whether barriers to capital movements should be reduced in magnitude as the development process proceeds. ; We find first that appropriately selected barriers to capital movements can be used by a poorer country to eliminate the short-term volatility of capital flows and other economic volatility as well. Second, we find that these barriers are consistent with increased rather than reduced levels of economic development in both the short and long run. Third, we show that it is empirically plausible that such barriers will be reduced over time as economies develop. Fourth, we show that, in the long run, all countries can benefit from the presence of barriers to capital mobility. And, fifth, we show that barriers to capital mobility can increase the magnitude of net capital flows in a steady state.International economic relations ; International finance ; Capital movements ; Monetary policy
- …