The determinants of early marriage and under-five child mortality in Afghanistan

We use data from the Demographic and Health Survey of Afghanistan 2015 to conduct a study of determinants of early marriage and effect of early marriage on child mortality under five years. In order to conduct this study, binary logit, probit (Marginal effects) and OLS regression methods were used. The first step in this study was to find the determinants of early marriage and conduct binary logit analysis. According to the result, it was found that the main determinants of early marriage are the education of women, employment status, exposure to media, ethnicity, current age group, marital status, number of wives and unions, region, place of residence and age at first sexual activity. Education, ethnicity, age at first sexual activity significantly affect the likelihood of early marriage. Moreover, after finding the determinants of early marriage, we analyzed the effect of early marriage on child mortality under five years using probit (Marginal effects) and OLS regression methods. According to the results obtained after the analysis, it was found that early marriage increases the likelihood of child mortality by 17.57%, 17.54% and 14.28% among all children, sons and daughters, respectively. According to OLS estimates, early marriage increases child mortality by 0.04, 0.02, and 0.02 among all children, sons, and daughters, respectively. Moreover, it was found that number of wives, years since first cohabitation, contraceptive usage, age at first birth, place of residence, wealth index, number of family members, women and children under five years and ethnicity affect the likelihood and number of children mortality under five years. Also, we address endogeneity problem of origin household selection

Approaches to optimize Uzbekistan's investment in irrigation technologies

For many decades, Uzbekistan has been one of the largest cotton producers in the world. The irrigation water needed for these high production levels has been delivered by the massive diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, which naturally flowed into the Aral Sea. This diversion for agriculture was the main cause of the rapid decline of the Aral Sea, which is at only 10% of its original size today. The traditional method of irrigation, which relies on simple open canal systems, is highly inefficient for managing the region’s critical and limited water resource. It has been qualitatively estimated, for example, that irrigation water lost to evaporation and system inefficiencies is quite large. With the future availability of water at risk for agriculture in Central Asia, primarily due to the loss of glacial volume from global warming, along with declines in seasonal snowpack, it is clear that new approaches to water management are needed. Any serious efforts to restore the Aral Sea and its ecological services would also reduce supplies of irrigation water for Uzbekistan. While regional conflict over water is unlikely, it must be considered since Uzbekistan is a downstream country among several that rely on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for most of their water supplies. To insure against these risks to cotton poduction and the underlying economy, better irrigation technologies are needed across Uzbekistan. However, these technologies can be quite expensive, especially given that water is still nearly free. In this case study we explore the use of real options nalysis (ROA) to look for optimal investment strategies in efficient irrigation technologies in light of variable climate and policy uncertainties

Price and Income Elasticity of Residential Electricity Consumption in Khorezm

Price or income elasticity of demand is the percentage change in electricity demand resulting from a one-percent change in its price or income. Information on price and income elasticity of demand for electricity is crucial for formulating appropriate reform policies. In Central Asian economies with a less-developed industrial sector, the share of residential electricity consumption is relatively high. Residential electricity consumers are known to be more flexible with respect to price- and income-related changes and to adapt to these changes relatively fast. Knowledge about price and income elasticity of electricity demand is crucial for implementing, for instance, tariff reforms. The aim of this study is to estimate the short-term price and income elasticity of residential electricity demand using panel data based on time series of 6 years for the 12 districts of the Khorezm region, Uzbekistan, under the condition of data limitations

BRI in Central Asia: Agriculture and Food Projects

Along with financing hard infrastructure projects, Beijing also promotes soft power projects in the form of people-to-people initiatives. However, such projects are low priority within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Central Asia. The Confucius Institutes, which appear to be an important vehicle for Chinese soft power in the region, are not directly linked to BRI and were launched before and independently of BRI

How to meet the future energy needs of Uzbekistan

This thesis work considers the perspective of Uzbekistan energy system. Current data of Uzbekenergy system is very complex because of some consider energy as only electricity generationwhile others add transportation, resources used in household, district heating, and energyresources spend to transport these materials. Another obstacle in researching the Uzbek energy system is always-positive approach ofprevious provided researches. Neither decision makers of the system, nor scientists approachcurrent conditions from criticism point of view. Indicators are swelled to planned-by-stateextent and events are explained only from positive point of view, however, there is extremely small room for positive aspects compared with negatives. Uzbekistan is energy self-sufficient country with positive energy balance in total. Uzbekistan is the only country to enlarge the natural gas production to 35% after the collapse of SovietUnion. There are different estimations of proven reserves’ time span: from 35 years to 55 yearsin most optimistic calculation. Other fossil fuels have smaller share of 7 and 8% for oil and coal correspondently. Insignificant decline in oil and minor increase in coal production is predicted. Hydropower generation hasreached its upper limits and not a subject for large increase. Nuclear energy is not implemented in Uzbekistan. It is predicted to be the main source ofenergy in the close fifty years for Uzbekistan. Due to rapid increases in production and netexports, fossil fuels do not have more than fifty years to exhaust. Nuclear energy needs longterm preparation, basic and fundamental conditions. Total primary energy consumption increase by World Energy Outlook 2005 is 50% for the year2025. Uzbekistan is unlikely to meet these growing needs without introducing nuclear energy.www.ima.kth.s

Efficiency of “Publish or Perish” Policy—Some Considerations Based on the Uzbekistan Experience

Researchers from Uzbekistan are leading the global list of publications in predatory journals. The current paper reviews the principles of implementation of the “publish or perish policy” in Uzbekistan with an overarching aim of detecting the factors that are pushing more and more scholars to publish the results of their studies in predatory journals. Scientific publications have historically been a cornerstone in the development of science. For the past five decades, the quantity of publications has become a common indicator for determining academic capacity. Governments and institutions are increasingly employing this indicator as an important criterion for promotion and recruitment; simultaneously, researchers are being awarded Ph.D. and D.Sc. degrees for the number of articles they publish in scholarly journals. Many talented academics have had a pay rise or promotion declined due to a short or nonexistent bibliography, which leads to significant pressure on academics to publish. The “publish or perish” principle has become a trend in academia and the key performance indicator for habilitation in Uzbekistan. The present study makes a case for re-examining the criteria set by the Supreme Attestation Commission of the Republic of Uzbekistan for candidates applying for Ph.D. and D.Sc. as well as faculty promotion requirements in the light of current evidence for the deteriorating academic performance of scholars

The causal relationship between energy supply deficiency and energy poverty: a case study of Kyrgyzstan

The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of central energy supply deficiency on energy poverty in Kyrgyz republic, by analyzing 1900 households in 2013. The cross-household analysis conducted by World Bank- GIZ Survey, called CALISS 2013 were used. The relationship between traditional fuel consumption and energy poverty was investigated, mainly by using Energy Poverty Ratio (EPR). EPR is the ratio representing the portion of energy and fuel expenditure over income of household, by the use of ‘10% indicator’ approach. Households, with the share of income above 10% coverage of expenses associated with fuel and energy services, are acknowledged to be energy poor households. Obtained results represent statistically significant energy and fuel consumption affect on energy poverty index. The results specify extensive traditional biomass and fuel dependence of houses and increase in the number of energy poor households; a substantial decline in supplied energy consumption, indicating a shortage of central energy supply. Results, conclusion and some recommendations were suggested in terms of policy to be implemented, focusing on decreasing the level of energy poverty

Challenges and Optimization Strategy for Feed-in Tariffs of Renewable Energy in CIS Countries

Modern life is convincing us that renewable energy technologies, policies, strategies should be disseminated all over the world to provide sustainable development. As an instrument, feed-in tariffs of renewable energy should be designed considering public finance opportunities, buying power of consumers in order to tackle administrative barriers as an optimization strategy. The authors used the comparison, data analysis and logical access methods. The paper provides evidence from leading countries in the industry, explores ongoing challenges in the application of feed-in tariff policies, analyses the optimal methodologies to give recommendations to stakeholders

Rogun Dam—Path to Energy Independence or Security Threat?

The revitalization of the Rogun hydropower station project and launch of an Initial Public Offering has led the water-energy disputes between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to a new stage. While two riparian states advocate their positions from their own perspective, it gives the impression of being a “prisoners’ dilemma” case from a regional cooperation point. This paper aims to review the decision of project revitalization from the unconventional security perspective, focusing mainly on its impact on Tajikistan. The scope will be limited to economic, energy, social and political security. The paper attempts to reveal the existing unconventional security threats and suggest possible solutions for the arising problems.water-energy trade-off; unconventional security; opportunity costs; Tajikistan; Uzbekistan; Central Asia