Mortalidad por homicidios en México: tendencias, variaciones socio-geográficas y factores asociados Deaths by homicide in Mexico: trends, socio-geographical variations and associated factors

Este estudio analiza la tendencia de las tasas de homicidio (total y por arma de fuego) en México entre 1990 y 2009 e identifica las variables que mejor explican las variaciones geográficas de las tasas en el bienio 2008-2009. Se calcularon tasas de homicidios, ajustadas por edad, para ambos sexos entre 1990 y 2009, y para cada estado en 2008-2009. El análisis de regresión lineal múltiple fue usado para identificar factores asociados a las variaciones interestatales de las tasas de homicidio. Los resultados muestran que la tasa de homicidio disminuyó entre 1992 y 2007, pero se ha duplicado en los últimos dos años (de 7.6 a 16.6 por 100,000). En 2009, la tasa de homicidio masculina fue cerca de 9 veces mayor que la tasa femenina y casi dos tercios de los homicidios fueron por arma de fuego. El análisis multivariado revela que la impunidad, el narcotráfico, el consumo de alcohol y drogas y la deserción escolar -por ese orden- son factores claves para entender las variaciones geográficas de las tasas de homicidio en México en 2008-2009. Así, para reducir los homicidios y las variaciones espaciales de la tasa, se necesita no solo combatir a los cárteles de la droga sino sobre todo implementar reformas estructurales en el sistema de procuración de justicia y disminuir las disparidades socioeconómicas entre los estados.<br>This study seeks to analyze the trend of homicide rates (total and by firearm) in Mexico between 1990 and 2009 and identify the variables that best explain the geographical variations of these rates in the 2008-2009 two-year period. Homicide rates, adjusted for age, were calculated for both sexes between 1990 and 2009 and for each state in 2008-2009. Factors associated with the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified using multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that the homicide rate in Mexico decreased between 1990 and 2007, but doubled over the last two years (from 7.6 to 16.6 per 100,000). In 2009, the male homicide rate was almost 9 times higher than the female rate and about two-thirds of homicides involved firearms. Multivariate analysis reveals that impunity, drug trafficking, alcohol and drug consumption and school dropout in basic education - in that order - are key factors for understanding the geographical variations in homicide rates in Mexico in 2008-2009. Findings suggest that to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, it is necessary not only to fight the drug cartels, but above all to implement structural reforms in the criminal justice system and reduce the socioeconomic disparities among states

Estudo multicêntrico da mortalidade por homicídios em países da América Latina Multicentric study of deaths by homicide in Latin American countries

Realizou-se um estudo epidemiológico descritivo da mortalidade por homicídios em países da América Latina (Argentina, Brasil, Colômbia e México) de 1990 a 2007. Analisam-se óbitos por causas externas e homicídios, codificados nas 9ª. e 10ª. revisões da Classificação Internacional de Doenças/CID, considerando-se sexo, faixa etária e meio usado na agressão. Apresentam-se números, proporções e taxas ajustadas de mortalidade por homicídios. Usou-se o modelo de regressão linear na tendência das taxas de homicídios por grupos etários. No período, os países contabilizaram 4.086.216 mortes por causas externas e 1.432.971 homicídios. Na Argentina as causas externas cresceram 54,5%, mas diminuíram nos demais (37% no México; 31,8% na Colômbia e 8,1% no Brasil). As razões de mortalidade por homicídios para ambos os sexos foram de 9,1 na Colômbia, 4,4 no Brasil e 1,6 no México, tomando-se as taxas da Argentina como referência. A evolução das taxas de homicídios por faixa etária e sexo mostrou-se distinta nos países: em todos os grupos etários foi crescente no Brasil e decrescente na Colômbia. Destaca-se a necessidade de se priorizar os jovens do sexo masculino nas políticas públicas de atenção e prevenção e da região adotar políticas inclusivas, ampliar e consolidar sua democracia e os direitos dos seus habitantes.<br>This article is a descriptive epidemiological study of deaths by homicide in Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico) from 1990 to 2007. Deaths due to external causes and homicides, as codified in the 9th and 10th revisions of the International Classification of Diseases/ICD, were analyzed considering sex, age and manner of assault. The numbers, ratios and adjusted rates for deaths by homicide are presented. A linear regression model was used to ascertain the trend of homicide rates by age group. During the period, 4,086,216 deaths from external causes and 1,432,971 homicides were registered in these countries. Deaths from external causes rose 54.5% in Argentina but fell in the other countries (37% in Mexico, 31.8% in Colombia, and 8.1% in Brazil). The ratio for deaths by homicide for both sexes was 9.1 in Colombia, 4.4 in Brazil and 1.6 in Mexico, using the Argentinian rates as a benchmark. There were differences in the evolution of homicide rates by age and sex in the countries: the rate rose in Brazil and fell in Colombia for all age groups. The need to prioritize young males in public policies related to health care and prevention is stressed, as well as the need for the region to adopt inclusive policies and broaden and consolidate democracy and the rights of inhabitants

La Comprensión de los Homicidios en América Latina: ¿Pobreza o Institucionalidad? Understanding homicides in Latin America: poverty or institutionalization?

Los homicidios ocurren en todo el mundo, pero no están homogéneamente distribuidos, cambian por zonas geográficas: continentes, países, regiones; en periodos de tiempo largos o cortos o por lo grupos sociales: edad, sexo, clase social o etnia. ¿Por qué en unos países hay más homicidios que en otros? ¿Por qué en unos países disminuyen los asesinatos y en otros se incrementan? Las explicaciones sociales de la violencia han tenido dos vertientes fundamentales: las teorías que la atribuyen a la pobreza y la desigualdad y las teorías de la institucionalidad o las normas sociales. Para discutir esas teorías el artículo analiza y compara los cambios ocurridos en Colombia, Venezuela y Brasil en la primera década del siglo XXI donde respectivamente disminuye, aumenta y se mantiene igual la tasa de homicidios. Utilizando la medición de seis variables (pobreza, desigualdad, desempleo, riqueza nacional, desarrollo humano y gobierno de la ley) y la técnica del análisis de trayectorias se encontró que la institucionalidad tiene una mayor fuerza explicativa en los cambios observados que la pobreza y la desigualdad. El texto concluye que la pobreza o la desigualdad influyen en la criminalidad y en los homicidios, aunque no de manera directa, sino mediadas por las instituciones.<br>Homicides occur the world over, but they are not homogeneously distributed by geographical areas (continents, countries, regions), either over long or short periods of time, or in social groups, namely age, gender, social class or ethnicity. Why are there more homicides in some countries than in others? Why do killings increase in some countries, while they decrease in others? There are two fundamental schools of thought for social explanations of crime and violence: those attributing its origins to poverty and inequality and those blaming institutionalization or social norms. To discuss these theories, this paper analyzes and compares the changes in Colombia, Venezuela and Brazil in the first decade of the twenty-first century, where the homicide rate has decreased, increased and remained the same, respectively. Using the measurement of six variables (poverty, inequality, unemployment, national wealth, human development and the rule of law) and the technique of trajectory analysis, the results revealed that institutionalization is more to blame for the change than poverty and inequality. The text concludes that poverty and inequality affect crime and homicides, although not directly, but mediated by the institutions instead