IMPACTS OF FTAA AND MERCOEURO ON AGRIBUSINESS IN THE MERCOSUL COUNTRIES

Focusing on changes in agricultural policy, this paper examines the economic impacts on MERCOSUL member country economies arising from the creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) and a free trade area between MERCOSUL and the European Union (MERCOEURO). Four simulations are run using the Global Trade Analysis Project's (GTAP) applied general equilibrium model. The results suggest these new trade alliances would cause an increase in MERCOSUL agribusiness production and a decrease in manufactures production. In all scenarios, agricultural trade flows are greatly altered, expanding MERCOSUL agribusiness exports. Economic growth for the MERCOSUL countries increases only in the MERCOEURO scenarios. The elimination of agriculture production and export subsidies by members of the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) and European Union (E.U.) has strong economic impacts on the MERCOSUL member countries.FTAA, MERCOEURO, Agribusiness, MERCOSUL, GTAP, Agribusiness,

Agricultural Credit Interest Rate Equalization Policy: A Growth Subsidy?

The Brazilian Interest Rate Equalization System (IRES) subsidizes farmers by providing them with credit at lower than market interest rates. The objective of this research is to evaluate the IRES by comparing its monetary cost with its benefits as measured by Brazilian GDP growth. Estimates are carried out using input-output matrix. The results suggest that each Brazilian real spent by IRES to assist Brazilian family farms increases Brazilian GDP by R$1.75 and that each real spent to assist commercial farms increases GDP by R$ 3.57. The IRES is a subsidy that generates economic growth greater than its cost to society.IRES subsidy, growth, input-output matrix, Agricultural Finance, Q18, C67, O40, H81,

Economic Loss to the Brazilian Regions Due to the Doha Round Failure

We build a database and model to develop general equilibrium analysis of the Brazilian economy at the level of the five macro regions. The model is multiregional at global level as also at the Brazilian level. The project is coupled to the GTAP model through disaggregation of the original Brazilian input-output matrix and trade flows and follows the GTAPinGAMS structure and syntax to generate the General Equilibrium Analysis Project for the Brazilian Economy (PAEG). The regional database is that of the GTAP version 6 and represent the 2001 world economy. We aggregate the data in seven regions plus the five Brazilian sub-regions and nineteen commodities/sectors to apply the scenario Doha Round to determine the probable losses to the Brazilian regions from the failure of the Doha round of negotiations. It is analyzed cuts in the agricultural and manufactures (NAMA proposal) import tariffs via the application of the Swiss formula, reduction in the agricultural production subsidies and elimination of agricultural export subsidies. The results show that although the regions are affected in different ways, the Doha Round failure generates losses for all Brazilian regions. The losses are greater for the Midwest and South regions, the most important for the Brazilian agricultural production.Brazilian regions, General equilibrium, Agribusiness, Trade liberalization, International Development, International Relations/Trade, F13, F15, Q17,

Relações de produção na pecuária leiteira: um estudo de caso das respostas da produção aos preços mensais

It is intended to verify the relations between input and products concerning to replaceability or complementarity, as well as the impacts of monthly variations on product prices (milk and meat) and input (fuels, work, concentrate) in the production system in Brazil that possess cows of 2.000 to 3.000 kilograms of milk for nursing. The results show that monthly variations in prices paid or received by producers cause considerable monthly changes in the markets for milk and the input considered.Profit translog function, Prices, Dairy cattle, Demand and Price Analysis,

SEPARABILIDADE DE FATORES DE PRODUÇÃO NA ESTIMAÇÃO DE FUNÇÕES TRANSLOG DE CUSTO

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the aggregation of production factors in a variable called Inputs in coffee production in Brazil. A translog cost function and a separability test are used, based on estimates of the Allen-Uzawa partial elasticity of substitution. The results demonstrate the possibilities of input separability analyses. Input substitutability relations and other effects, such as exchange rate devaluation, on each production factor, can be examined.translog cost function, inputs aggregation, separability., Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Industrial Organization,

EFEITOS DE UMA DESONERAÇÃO TRIBUTÁRIA NA ECONOMIA BRASILEIRA EM CENÁRIOS DE CRIAÇÃO DA ÁREA DE LIVRE COMÉRCIO DAS AMÉRICAS (ALCA)

O objetivo desse artigo é determinar os impactos da criação da Área de Livre Comércio das Américas (ALCA), a partir de uma desoneração tributária, na economia brasileira. Para isso, foram analisados diversos cenários que contam, além da eliminação das tarifas ao comércio entre os países do continente americano, com redução de 10% dos impostos indiretos que incidem sobre o consumo, sobre os insumos intermediários e sobre a produção brasileira. O modelo do GTAPinGAMS é usado como instrumental analítico, aplicado à versão 6.0 do banco de dados do GTAP. Os resultados indicam que, em todos os cenários de ALCA, a redução dos impostos indiretos em 10% aumentou a competitividade, promoveu o crescimento e o bem-estar do Brasil e elevou a receita tributária. O crescimento da economia variou de 0,17% a 0,31% e os ganhos de bem-estar, medidos pela variação equivalente, atingiram US$1,10 bilhão a US$ 2,03 bilhões.------------------------------------------------------The objective of this study is to determine the effects of the creation of FTAA stemming from a tax exemption in the Brazilian economy. Four different scenarios were analyzed taking into account the elimination of tariffs on imports among the member countries in the FTAA agreement. Other scenarios consider a 10% reduction in the indirect taxes. The GTAPinGAMs is used as an analytical tool, applied to the GTAP database version 6.0. The results show that for all scenarios of FTAA, the reduction of indirect taxes increase competition, promote growth and the welfare in Brazil, with increase in tax collection by the government. The growth of the economy ranges from 0.17% and 0.31% and gains of welfare, measured by the equivalent variation from US$1.10 billions and US$2.03 billions.integração regional, tributos indiretos, equilíbrio geral, GTAPinGAMS, competitividade setorial, regional integration, indirect taxes, general equilibrium, GTAPinGAMS, sectorial competition, International Relations/Trade, F13, F15, Q17, R13, H20,

As relações entre insumos na agricultura brasileira na década de 90: uma aplicação da função Translog de custo

The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationships between agricultural inputs from 1990 to 2001. This decade was fed up on policies that could have changed the pre-existing relationship between the demands of these inputs and their respective prices. Thus, it was used the translog cost function , based on the estimation of the plots of each input in the total cost of agriculture. The estimation was implemented by the model SUR, which takes into account the residual contemporary correlation. The results point to direct price-elasticities of demand by negative factors, although only the price-elasticity of demand for labour factor statistically different from zero. By the cross-elasticities among factors work and fertilizer, there is a relationship between those of substitution, and the demand for work far more sensitive to variations in the price of fertilizers that the opposite. It appears that capital and fertilizers are complementary, a fact that can support the growth of mechanization and the use of fertilizers in agriculture, especially in the last decade. The results are, for the most part consistent with the economic theory, and describe the relationship between the demands of the main inputs used by the national agriculture, can be used in a considerable range of analyses and policy implementation.O objetivo desse trabalho é determinar relações entre os insumos agrícolas de 1990 a 2001. Essa década foi farta em políticas que podem ter modificado as relações pré-existentes entre as demandas desses insumos e seus respectivos preços. Para tanto, utilizou-se a Função Translog de Custo, com base na estimação das parcelas de cada insumo no custo total da agricultura. A estimação foi implementada pelo modelo SUR, que leva em consideração a correlação contemporânea dos resíduos. Os resultados apontam para elasticidades-preço diretas da demanda pelos fatores negativas, apesar de apenas a elasticidade-preço da demanda pelo fator trabalho estatisticamente diferente de zero. Através das elasticidades cruzadas entre os fatores trabalho e fertilizantes, verifica-se uma relação de substitutibilidade entre esses, sendo a demanda de trabalho muito mais sensível às variações no preço dos fertilizantes que o oposto. Verifica-se que capital e fertilizantes são complementares, fato que pode corroborar ocrescimento da mecanização e da utilização de fertilizantes na agricultura, principalmente na última década. Os resultados estão, em sua maioria, condizentes com a teoria econômica, ecomo descrevem as relações entre as demandas dos principais insumos utilizados pela agricultura nacional, podem ser aproveitados em um considerável leque de análises e implementação de políticas

Impactos da liberalização comercial e da acumulação de fatores no crescimento brasileiro: uma aplicação do GTAP

The intensification of discussions on economic growth, in addition to its stagnation, which lasted more than two decades, generate the need for knowledge of the major propellants of development. The theory is best known by the accumulation of factors capital, labour and productivity gains. Moreover, international trade has been highlighted as an alternative engine, even if indirectly. Therefore, this study aims to research the impacts of simulated increases in each of these determinants, in scenarios based on the Brazilian economic situation. It was found that the capital is the main driver of exports and the manufactured industry, but that the realengine of the economy is the non-qualified work.Key words: economic growth, economic openness, capital, labour.A intensificação das discussões acerca do crescimento econômico e também sobre a sua estagnação, que dura há mais de duas décadas, criam a necessidade de conhecer os principais propulsores do desenvolvimento. Os propulsores mais conhecidos pela teoria são a acumulação dos fatores capital e trabalho e os ganhos de produtividade. Além desses, o comércio internacional tem sido destacado como um motor alternativo, mesmo que indiretamente. Assim sendo, o presente trabalho objetiva a investigação dos impactos de incrementos simulados em cada um desses determinantes, em cenários com base na conjuntura econômica brasileira. Averiguou-se que o capital é o principal impulsionador das exportações e do setor de manufaturados, mas que o verdadeiro motor da economia é o trabalho não qualificado.]Palavras-chave: crescimento econômico, abertura econômica, capital, trabalho