When things go wrong : intra-season dynamics of breeding failure in a seabird

We thank all fieldworkers who helped monitor nests and deploy/retrieve GPS loggers, notably Muriel Dietrich, Elisa Lobato, Julien Gasparini, Vincent Staszewski and Thierry Chambert. We are grateful to Victor Garcia‐Mattarranz from the Ministerio de Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino (MARM, Spain) and Jacob Gonzalès‐Solís from University of Barcelona for their help on PTTs functioning and deployment. We thank Nina Dehnhard and two anonymous referees who provided useful comments and suggestions to improve this manuscript and Matthieu Authier for statistical advice. This study was funded by the French Polar Institute (IPEV, programme n°333 PARASITO‐ARCTIQUE), CNRS, ANR, OSU OREME, NINA, University of Tromsø, SEAPOP (www.seapop.no) and CEDREN. All work was carried out in accordance with standard animal care protocols and approved by the Ethical Committee of the French Polar Institute and the Norwegian Animal Research Authority. The PhD thesis of A. P. is partly funded via a Région Languedoc‐Roussillon program ‘Chercheur d'Avenir' support to T. B. and University of Montpellier 2.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Assessing the role of EO in biodiversity monitoring: options for integrating in-situ observations with EO within the context of the EBONE concept

The European Biodiversity Observation Network (EBONE) is a European contribution on terrestrial monitoring to GEO BON, the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network. EBONE’s aims are to develop a system of biodiversity observation at regional, national and European levels by assessing existing approaches in terms of their validity and applicability starting in Europe, then expanding to regions in Africa. The objective of EBONE is to deliver: 1. A sound scientific basis for the production of statistical estimates of stock and change of key indicators; 2. The development of a system for estimating past changes and forecasting and testing policy options and management strategies for threatened ecosystems and species; 3. A proposal for a cost-effective biodiversity monitoring system. There is a consensus that Earth Observation (EO) has a role to play in monitoring biodiversity. With its capacity to observe detailed spatial patterns and variability across large areas at regular intervals, our instinct suggests that EO could deliver the type of spatial and temporal coverage that is beyond reach with in-situ efforts. Furthermore, when considering the emerging networks of in-situ observations, the prospect of enhancing the quality of the information whilst reducing cost through integration is compelling. This report gives a realistic assessment of the role of EO in biodiversity monitoring and the options for integrating in-situ observations with EO within the context of the EBONE concept (cfr. EBONE-ID1.4). The assessment is mainly based on a set of targeted pilot studies. Building on this assessment, the report then presents a series of recommendations on the best options for using EO in an effective, consistent and sustainable biodiversity monitoring scheme. The issues that we faced were many: 1. Integration can be interpreted in different ways. One possible interpretation is: the combined use of independent data sets to deliver a different but improved data set; another is: the use of one data set to complement another dataset. 2. The targeted improvement will vary with stakeholder group: some will seek for more efficiency, others for more reliable estimates (accuracy and/or precision); others for more detail in space and/or time or more of everything. 3. Integration requires a link between the datasets (EO and in-situ). The strength of the link between reflected electromagnetic radiation and the habitats and their biodiversity observed in-situ is function of many variables, for example: the spatial scale of the observations; timing of the observations; the adopted nomenclature for classification; the complexity of the landscape in terms of composition, spatial structure and the physical environment; the habitat and land cover types under consideration. 4. The type of the EO data available varies (function of e.g. budget, size and location of region, cloudiness, national and/or international investment in airborne campaigns or space technology) which determines its capability to deliver the required output. EO and in-situ could be combined in different ways, depending on the type of integration we wanted to achieve and the targeted improvement. We aimed for an improvement in accuracy (i.e. the reduction in error of our indicator estimate calculated for an environmental zone). Furthermore, EO would also provide the spatial patterns for correlated in-situ data. EBONE in its initial development, focused on three main indicators covering: (i) the extent and change of habitats of European interest in the context of a general habitat assessment; (ii) abundance and distribution of selected species (birds, butterflies and plants); and (iii) fragmentation of natural and semi-natural areas. For habitat extent, we decided that it did not matter how in-situ was integrated with EO as long as we could demonstrate that acceptable accuracies could be achieved and the precision could consistently be improved. The nomenclature used to map habitats in-situ was the General Habitat Classification. We considered the following options where the EO and in-situ play different roles: using in-situ samples to re-calibrate a habitat map independently derived from EO; improving the accuracy of in-situ sampled habitat statistics, by post-stratification with correlated EO data; and using in-situ samples to train the classification of EO data into habitat types where the EO data delivers full coverage or a larger number of samples. For some of the above cases we also considered the impact that the sampling strategy employed to deliver the samples would have on the accuracy and precision achieved. Restricted access to European wide species data prevented work on the indicator ‘abundance and distribution of species’. With respect to the indicator ‘fragmentation’, we investigated ways of delivering EO derived measures of habitat patterns that are meaningful to sampled in-situ observations

Raising offspring increases ageing: differences in senescence among three populations of a long‐lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin

1. Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population-level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories. 2. We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties. 3. We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990–2020) of parallel capture–mark–recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively. 4. In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3–5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ = −0.009) than on the two other colonies. 5. Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large-scale comparative studies

Winter extra-tropical cyclones as a driver of seabird survival: variation between and within Common eider populations

Mid-latitude atmospheric variability is mainly driven by a type of cyclone, the extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs) that have a primary role in determining local weather and its variation, inducing strong winds, precipitation, and temperature changes. ETCs have a broad range of intensities, from benign to extreme, and their paths, frequency and intensity may change with global warming. However, how ETCs, and cyclones in general, currently affect marine wildlife is poorly studied and remains substantially unexplored. Indeed, only few studies have examined the impact of tropical cyclones, another kind of cyclones, on the temporal variation of seabird survival and no study has explored the potential impact of ETCs, although the latters could be potential mechanisms behind some winter NAO-survival relationships highlighted in previous studies. A fortiori, very little has been done to study the potential heterogeneity within or between populations with different winter migratory tactics and undergoing different winter environmental conditions. We used capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data sets collected in two arctic (northern Canada and Svalbard) and one subarctic (northern Norway) populations of Common eider, Somateria mollissima, over periods of 19, 16 and 30 years, respectively and corresponding datasets of winter ETCs in each wintering area to explore their link with the temporal variation of adult annual survival. We found significant and negative correlations between ETC activity and eider survival but different mechanisms seemed to be involved among the studied populations and could explain part of observed winter NAO effects. The number of ETCs, extreme or not, was directly linked to survival in the Canadian population, whereas the wind speed of the strongest ETC impacted adult survival with time lags for the Svalbard and northern Norway eider populations. We suggest that climatic shelters found on the wintering grounds, such as fjords, could provide natural protection and partly explain inter-population heterogeneity

Six pelagic seabird species of the North Atlantic engage in a fly-and-forage strategy during their migratory movements

Funding Information: We thank all the fieldworkers for their hard work collecting data. Funding for this study was provided by the Norwegian Ministry for Climate and the Environment, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association along with 8 oil companies through the SEATRACK project (www. seapop. no/ en/ seatrack). Fieldwork in Norwegian colonies (incl. Svalbard and Jan Mayen) was supported by the SEAPOP program (www.seapop.no, grant no. 192141). The French Polar Institute (IPEV project 330 to O.C.) supported field operation for Kongsfjord kittiwakes. The work on the Isle of May was also supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Award NE/R016429/1 as part of the UK-SCaPE programme delivering National Capability). We thank Maria Bogdanova for field support and data processing. Finally, we thank 3 anonymous reviewers for their help improving the first version of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Inter-population synchrony in adult survival and effects of climate and extreme weather in non-breeding areas of Atlantic puffins

Seabirds are undergoing drastic declines globally and spend the non-breeding season at sea, making it challenging to study the drivers of their survival. Harsh weather and changes in climate conditions can have drastic impacts on seabird population dynamics through increased mortality. The intensity and persistence of extreme events are forecasted to increase with global warming. As shared conditions can induce population synchrony, multi-population studies of key demographic parameters are imperative to explore the influence of climate change. We used long-term mark-recapture data and position (GLS) data to determine non-breeding stop-over areas of five Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica) populations over a latitudinal gradient in the north-eastern Atlantic (56°11’–70°23’N). We investigated synchrony in adult survival in relation to shared stop-over areas. We quantified effects of extreme extra-tropical cyclones (ETC) specific to populations’ stop-over areas and the North Atlantic Oscillation on adult survival. Populations with overlapping stop-over areas exhibited temporal synchrony in survival rates. Winter ETCs negatively influenced survival in one population, which was the one most exposed to extreme weather, but did not directly influence adult survival in the other four populations. Synchrony among populations with shared stop-over areas highlights the importance of these areas for adult survival, a key life-history rate. However, extreme weather was not identified as a driving factor for four of the population. This suggests other factors in these areas, likely related to bottom-up trophic interactions, as environmental drivers of synchrony in the survival of Atlantic puffins

Earlier colony arrival but no trend in hatching timing in two congeneric seabirds (Uria spp.) across the North Atlantic

A global analysis recently showed that seabird breeding phenology (as the timing of egg-laying and hatching) does not, on average, respond to temperature changes or advance with time (Keogan et al. 2018 Nat. Clim. Change8, 313–318). This group, the most threatened of all birds, is therefore prone to spatio-temporal mismatches with their food resources. Yet, other aspects of the breeding phenology may also have a marked influence on breeding success, such as the arrival date of adults at the breeding site following winter migration. Here, we used a large tracking dataset of two congeneric seabirds breeding in 14 colonies across 18° latitudes, to show that arrival date at the colony was highly variable between colonies and species (ranging 80 days) and advanced 1.4 days/year while timing of egg-laying remained unchanged, resulting in an increasing pre-laying duration between 2009 and 2018. Thus, we demonstrate that potentially not all components of seabird breeding phenology are insensitive to changing environmental conditions

Hemispheric asymmetry in ocean change and the productivity of ecosystem sentinels

Climate change and other human activities are causing profound effects on marine ecosystem productivity. We show that the breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts, with the strongest effects on fish-eating, surface-foraging species in the north. Hemispheric asymmetry suggests the need for ocean management at hemispheric scales. For the north, tactical, climate-based recovery plans for forage fish resources are needed to recover seabird breeding productivity. In the south, lower-magnitude change in seabird productivity presents opportunities for strategic management approaches such as large marine protected areas to sustain food webs and maintain predator productivity. Global monitoring of seabird productivity enables the detection of ecosystem change in remote regions and contributes to our understanding of marine climate impacts on ecosystems

Hemispheric asymmetry in ocean change and the productivity of ecosystem sentinels

Climate change and other human activities are causing profound effects on marine ecosystem productivity. We show that the breeding success of seabirds is tracking hemispheric differences in ocean warming and human impacts, with the strongest effects on fish-eating, surface-foraging species in the north. Hemispheric asymmetry suggests the need for ocean management at hemispheric scales. For the north, tactical, climate-based recovery plans for forage fish resources are needed to recover seabird breeding productivity. In the south, lower-magnitude change in seabird productivity presents opportunities for strategic management approaches such as large marine protected areas to sustain food webs and maintain predator productivity. Global monitoring of seabird productivity enables the detection of ecosystem change in remote regions and contributes to our understanding of marine climate impacts on ecosystems