An assessment of the national labour market

In the framework of its participation in the decision-making process of the single monetary policy, the BCL, among other things, needs to analyse the national economy. Different parts of this paper address different audiences: in order to expose to the general and non-expert public why central banks are interested in labour markets, the first section begins with the basic link between monetary policy and labour markets. The discussion reviews the arguments indicating that in the long run a loose attitude towards inflation does not lead to lower unemployment. In addition, the discussion sketches out to what extent the labour market provides useful information for the conduct of an appropriate monetary policy. In the second part, the paper focuses on the particularities of the Luxembourg labour market and its impact on the price level. The standard Phillips curve relationship is altered by a number of circumstances: monetary policy is fixed for the euro area as a whole, while the evolution of the labour market is a concern for local policy makers. The very large share of non-residents in domestic employment is the central aspect of Luxembourg's labour market. In addition, the smallness of the economy is associated with a very high degree of openness in terms of exports and imports. These characteristics affect the determination of equilibrium unemployment and the price level. Since residents' low participation rates are often criticised, the size of the potential reserve this represents for the labour market is estimated. This potential reserve is very limited compared with the current speed of job creation, so it remains crucial for the national labour market to remain attractive to cross-border commuters and immigrants. The wage bargaining process and non-wage labour costs also play an important role in the national labour market performance. Finally, aspects of resident unemployment are discussed in the light of job search theory.

Sectoral specialisation in the EU a macroeconomic perspective

This paper analyses trends in sectoral specialisation in the EU and concludes the following: 1) The European production structure appears more homogenous than that of the US. 2) While sectoral specialisation has shown a slight increase in some smaller euro area countries towards the end-1990s, it is too early to detect any potential impact of EMU. 3) Despite some changes in sectoral composition, the business cycles of euro area countries became more synchronised over the 1990s, which may be seen as reassuring from the point of view of the single monetary policy. 4) Sectoral re-allocation accounts for as much as 50% of the increase in labour productivity growth in business sector services in the euro area. 5) The slowdown of European labour productivity growth relative to the US since the mid-1990s is explained by a stronger performance in the US wholesale and retail trade, financial intermediation and high-tech manufacturing sectors.

Competitiveness and the export performance of the euro area

Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market share analysis for the euro area and thereby sheds light on the reasons for movements in aggregate export market shares by looking at the sectoral and geographical composition of euro area exports. Chapter 3 looks at the evolution of the technological competitiveness of the euro area and major competitors – proxied by patenting activity and R&D expenditure – and analyses some structural indicators of competitiveness using survey data. Chapter 4 then looks at the impact of FDI on competitiveness and export performance. Finally, Chapter 5 summarises the main findings of the report, but also critically evaluates their importance and implications.

Sectoral specialisation in the EU a macroeconomic perspective

This paper analyses trends in sectoral specialisation in the EU and concludes the following: 1) The European production structure appears more homogenous than that of the US. 2) While sectoral specialisation has shown a slight increase in some smaller euro area countries towards the end-1990s, it is too early to detect any potential impact of EMU. 3) Despite some changes in sectoral composition, the business cycles of euro area countries became more synchronised over the 1990s, which may be seen as reassuring from the point of view of the single monetary policy. 4) Sectoral re-allocation accounts for as much as 50% of the increase in labour productivity growth in business sector services in the euro area. 5) The slowdown of European labour productivity growth relative to the US since the mid-1990s is explained by a stronger performance in the US wholesale and retail trade, financial intermediation and high-tech manufacturing sectors

Competitiveness and the export performance of the euro area

Chapter 1 provides an overview and assessment of the price competitiveness and export performance of the euro area and the larger euro area countries, as well as an evaluation of how standard equations have been able to explain actual export developments. Chapter 2 carries out a constant market share analysis for the euro area and thereby sheds light on the reasons for movements in aggregate export market shares by looking at the sectoral and geographical composition of euro area exports. Chapter 3 looks at the evolution of the technological competitiveness of the euro area and major competitors – proxied by patenting activity and R&D expenditure – and analyses some structural indicators of competitiveness using survey data. Chapter 4 then looks at the impact of FDI on competitiveness and export performance. Finally, Chapter 5 summarises the main findings of the report, but also critically evaluates their importance and implications

Infliximab or cyclosporine as rescue therapy in hospitalized patients with steroid-refractory ulcerative colitis: A retrospective observational study

Background: Cyclosporine (CsA) or infliximab (IFX) are used as rescue therapies in steroid-refractory, severe attacks of ulcerative colitis (UC). There are no data comparing the efficacy of these two alternatives. Methods: Outcome of rescue therapy was retrospectively studied in two cohorts of patients hospitalized due to steroid-refractory moderate to severe UC: 1) a Swedish-Danish cohort (n 49) treated with a single infusion of IFX; 2) an Austrian cohort (n 43) treated with intravenous CsA. After successful rescue therapy, maintenance immunomodulator treatment was given to 27/33 (82%) of IFX patients and to 31/40 (78%) of CsA patients. Endpoints were colectomy-free survival at 3 and 12 months. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression models were used to evaluate the association between treatment groups and colectomy. Results: At 15 days, colectomy-free survival in the IFX cohort was 36/49 (73%) versus 41/43 (95%) in the CsA cohort (P = 0.005), at 3 months 33/49 (67%) versus 40/43 (93%) (P = 0.002), and at 12 months 28/49 (57%) versus 33/43 (77%) (P = 0.034). After adjusting for potential confounding factors, Cox regression analysis yielded adjusted hazard ratios for risk of colectomy in IFX-treated patients of 11.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4-53.1, P = 0.002) at 3 months and of 3.0 (95% CI 1.1-8.2, P = 0.030) at 12 months in comparison with CsA-treated patients. There were no opportunistic infections or mortality. Conclusions: Colectomy frequencies were significantly lower after rescue therapy with CsA than with a single infusion of IFX both at 3 and 12 months' follow-up. The superiority of CsA was seen principally during the first 15 days