Agricultural Household Hedging With Off-Farm Income

Agricultural Finance, Risk and Uncertainty,

Farm Income, Population, and Farmland Prices: A Relative Information Approach

This paper uses an entropy-based information approach to determine if farmland values are more closely associated with urban pressure or farm income. The basic question is: how much information on changes in farm real estate values is contained in changes in population versus changes in returns to production agriculture? Results suggest population is informative, but changes in farmland values are more strongly associated with changes in the distribution of returns. However, this relationship is not true for every region nor does it hold over time, as for some regions changes in population are more informative. Results have policy implications for both equity and efficiency.entropy; land values; information theory; population growth.

The Present Value Model, Farmland Prices and Structural Breaks

We review the constant discount rate present value model of farmland prices using non-stationary panel data analysis. We use panel unit root and cointegration analysis to test if the present value model holds for a sample of 31 U.S. States covering the period 1960-2000. Preliminary results indicate that farmland prices and cash rents are non-stationary and non-cointegrated assuming a constant discount rate. The absence of cointegration may be due to the presence of a regime shift representing a time-varying discount rate. To accommodate this possibility, we introduce new panel cointegration tests that allow for unknown regime shifts in the cointegration relationship. The results suggest that the cointegration hypothesis cannot be rejected if there is a regime shift. Thus, while the present value model of farmland prices must be rejected when the discount rate is presumed constant, it cannot be rejected once we allow for regime shifts representing a time-varying discount rate.farmland prices, present value model, non-stationary panel data analysis, regime shift, Q24, Land Economics/Use, C22, C23, G12,

A Determination of Relationship Between Seven Known Factors and a Student\u27s Success in Debate

High school principals consider the state championship debaters to be outstanding in every respect: in scholarship, leadership, personality, activities, and professional success after high school. These debaters have distinctive personalities and demonstrate leadership both in and outside of the classroom. The principals evaluated these students as scholastic leaders, with many of them receiving university scholarships upon graduation from high school. The superior intelligence of the group was acknowledged. It is apparent that school administrators consider the championship debaters to have been the distinguished citizens in their schools. Personal contact with debaters and debate coaches throughout the state of South Dakota gives support to the claim that proficient debaters are also distinguished school citizens. There are also distinguished school citizens who are not proficient debaters. Research in this area of study using control groups indicate that distinctive personality, high intelligence, and scholastic leadership are not the unique characteristics of debaters. Many debate coaches believe that there are certain factors that a student has that are directly related to success in debate. Herold P. Sampson, veteran debate coach at Watertown High School, says that grades in mathematics and English indicate success in debate. Donald J. McCarthy, Superintendent and debate coach at the high school in Colman, South Dakota, believes mental ability and mathematics grades are the best indicators of probable success in debate. Others like Alton P. Schenk, debate coach at the high school in Yankton, South Dakota, believe the student’s personality and class rank to be of importance to superior debating. In South Dakota, debating is becoming highly competitive among both class “A” and class “B” schools. Debate coaches, in an effort to develop better teams, try to predict which students will respond to coaching and become superior debaters. This research attempts to determine the relationship between known factors and a student’s success in debate

The Life History and Population Dynamics of Southern Flounder

Southern Flounder, Paralichthys lethostigma, are a coastal, estuarine-dependent flatfish species that inhabits the Southeastern US Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Throughout their range, Southern Flounder are exploited by both commercial and recreational fisheries. Recently, numerous sources have expressed concerns about Southern Flounder populations, with stock assessments indicating declines in spawning stock biomass and recruitment. To estimate life history traits needed for informed management, such as age, growth, and maturity, I collected 327 Southern Flounder from Louisiana and obtained 14,184 historical records from the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. Using a von Bertalanffy growth equation in a Bayesian hierarchical framework, I found local-scale differences in growth between estuaries and parameter differences from previous studies. Logistic regression estimated an L50 of 353mm, which is over 100mm larger than a previous estimate for Louisiana. Finally, I evaluated the variability in life history estimates from historical studies throughout the range. I then used generalized additive models to quantify age-0 relative abundance trends in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Of 31 estuaries modeled, a significant decline was found to be occurring in 19, indicating a range-wide population decline. Environmental covariates including growing degree days (GDD), wind, and winter severity were tested to explain the trends. GDD and winter severity appeared to have localized effects on Southern Flounder abundance, while wind was a significant explanatory factor in all 21 estuaries with available wind data. Additionally, I show that Southern Flounder are being exposed to warmer temperatures as they develop, which could cause sex ratios to masculinize. This research addresses fishery management needs and seeks to explain the population dynamics of Southern Flounder in the Gulf of Mexico and US Southeastern Atlantic

Profit Patterns Across American Agriculture

To remain viable, agriculture in each location must offer returns that are competitive with those from alternative investments and sufficient to cover producers' financial obligations. Economic theory says that rates of return converge over time as resources flow into more-profitable industries and out of less-profitable industries, causing factor price changes. Both traditional growth and trade theories say factor markets will adjust to equalize commodity returns over time. This study examines spatial relationships in agriculture's profitability over time. Results show temporal and spatial convergence of returns consistent with trade and development theories. However, there are profit patterns unique to state/regional agriculture, raising policy implications.convergence, return on assets, "risk of ruin", Agribusiness,

RATES OF RETURN IN THE FARM AND NON-FARM SECTORS: A TIME SERIES COMPARISON

Financial Economics,

NEXT YEAR ON THE U.S. FARMLAND MARKET: AN INFORMATIONAL APPROACH

This paper formulates an information measure for changes in asset values and applies the formulation to farmland values in the United States for 1960-99. The results indicate that changes in asset values contained significant information following the Russian wheat sale in the early 1970s and the financial crisis in agriculture in the mid 1980s. Further, information about preceding year's asset value largely explains the regional distribution of current year's farmland values.Land Economics/Use,

PROFIT PATTERNS IN THE U.S. AND THE WEST, 1992 AND 1997: WHAT COUNTY-LEVEL DATA REVEAL

We examine whether there are spatial relationships in U.S. production agriculture's profitability across regions and over time. We test the traditional view that factor markets (approximately) adjust to equalize agriculture's net returns over space and time using county-level data from the UDSA's Census of Agriculture, 1992 and 1997. We estimate Gini coefficients and calculate the Theil Entropy Measure (TMI) to examine changes in the concentration of returns over space and time, and to decompose the variation in inequality in returns due to between-region variation in returns. Although factor markets (approximately) adjust to equalize net returns over space and time, there is still considerable variability in returns within regions and within states. Use of county-level (Census of Agriculture) and farm-level data (ARMS Survey) to help highlight these differences. In general, farm-level Gini coefficients have remained fairly constant but show a mild increase in concentration since the 1996 FAIR Act. The TMI analysis reveals that in 1997 about 54 percent of the variation in total returns (net cash returns) was due to within-region variation, and about 46 percent was due to (average) between-region variation (compared to 53 and 47 percent in 1992). Total U.S. inequity of net cash returns increased from 0.14 in 1992 to 0.21 in 1997.Gini coefficient, Theil Entropy Measure, net cash returns, net cash and net farm income, farm structure, Agricultural Finance, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Q, Q140,

THE MEASUREMENT OF INEQUALITY IN CANADIAN AND U.S. AGRICULTURAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS OF NET VALUE ADDED

This paper examines changes in net value added generated through Canadian and U.S. farm production, 1970-2000. We consider how the structural changes in Canadian and U.S. agriculture have affected the size and distribution of net value added and its components: rent, capital, labor, and to net farm income. We use the Theil Measure of Inequality (TMI) to compare and explain changes in 1) the between and within-region distribution of net value added, and 2) changes in the distribution of factor shares of net value added in Canada and in the U.S. Results show that in Canada (1960-2000), net value added has become somewhat more equally distributed relative to the number of farms per province, but has varied widely from 1972-1988. Between-region inequality in net value added accounted for from 0.5 to 85.5 percent of this inequality from 1960-2000. In the U.S. (1949-2000), net value added has become more unequally distributed. About half of the variation in net value added in the U.S. is due to between-region variation and about half to within-region variation in net value added. We find that most of the variation in the components of net value added (returns to capital, labor, nonoperator landlords, and to farm operators) in Canada and the United States is due to variations across regions, rather than to variations in the components of net value added themselves. These variations have generally been due to macroeconomic differences in regions, such as shifts in enterprise specialization, urbanization, changes in government programs, and to other structural changes in agriculture.Agricultural Finance,